Lms Capital Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 25/1/2017 08:34

Agreed to the extent that I certainly didn't trust it before. Also don't think this is necessarily kitchen-sinked. But trust it more for being lower, if that makes sense. Paid about a 28.5% discount to today's stated NAV, though could be argued more fair value than cheap.

Isn't a LTBH anyway.

Either that, or "A fool and his money" ;)

[tiltonboy] 25/1/2017 08:27

Specto,

Problem is NAV keeps tracking the price down!

I didn't trust the NAV previously, and I only marginally trust it more now!

There needs to be a comprehensive announcement from the company as to the decline.

[spectoacc] 25/1/2017 08:20

Lol I'm going the other way - just bought a few. 30% discount seems worth a punt to me. Won't be in long tho, win or lose.

[skyship] 25/1/2017 08:13

Well - certainly looks as though the new managers are "kitchen sinking" valuations!

Still, I've finally decided to get out; and with prices over 50p actually better than I feared when I read that RNS.

[spectoacc] 25/1/2017 07:57

:) OK I'll rephrase - RNS bad but at least NAV discount still c.20% - could have been par!

[tiltonboy] 25/1/2017 07:55

Specto,

"RNS isn't terrible, but not that great"

It's appalling!

Given that two disposals (part) have been achieved in line with NAV, there must be some really bad news in there...

[spectoacc] 25/1/2017 07:28

RNS isn't terrible, but not that great - a couple of slow realisations, NAV estimate 69.5p even with £ weakness.

[luckymouse] 16/1/2017 23:08

The issue here can be described as a 'volume efficiency' problem
Despite the buyers coming in quite strongly - clearly seen on the rising money flow - they are failing to move the share price - the volume efficiency scale on the left is low. Which means someone is getting out via the back door or there's a 'lot' of overhang. The LT oscs are showing a slightly unconvincing break up but the short term momentum is struggling to break - unusual! The momo & MF are also out of sync - which again is unusual.

The share price is sitting at rst (prior spt) and hasn't broken it yet - a touch risky - so until price and momentum break up convincingly indicating the overhang has been soaked - I'm reluctant to pile in. As soon as that goes tho (or there is decent news) its prob worth a punt.

[spectoacc] 06/1/2017 09:19

Even if 6m ago, may still have caused overhang subsequently. LMS seems to need news to stir up any interest in it (not currently a holder but on watchlist).

[skyship] 06/1/2017 09:05

They finally just got too fed up with the Board machinations and pulled the plug. Actually I now see they sold down most of their holding 6months ago.....so I'm incorrect with my assumption. Perhaps sold only 150k over the past few months. Sorry all...

[spectoacc] 06/1/2017 08:29

Good spot; CGT quite shrewd though, wonder why they've sold?

[skyship] 06/1/2017 08:26

The persistent seller over the past 5months since the last Tender is revealed . CGT are now down to their last 100,000 shares, so the end of that tap may well assist a limited recovery in the sp; it is certainly a rare bull point for LMS:

[luckymouse] 02/1/2017 11:10

Yes JPEL was lovely - very well bought!

Maybe lets have a chat later on about the profiles/behaviours of wrong uns in the IT world - i mean deliberate frauds, obfuscations, blatant fee raking opperations, capital raise syphoning fronts etc as opposed to regular under performance. Such nasties are pretty easy to spot in the offshore aim stk world - a bit more subtle/rare in the IT world.

Hope you have a great 2017

[tiltonboy] 02/1/2017 10:38

LM,

By no means negative about it, and I certainly do more due dil than most people, but every now and again there is a wrong 'un, and I haven't yet decided if LMS falls into this camp.

You are preaching to the converted on IT's, where I do most of my business. JPEL was my big winner of the year, and still looks ridiculously cheap. HAST has had a good year, and we are only a year away from a continuation vote. MNKS and BTEM have been the other standouts. Made good money on BCAP, PEY, OCL, PINR, HRI as well.

Currently buying ATS where there are a number of catalysts, but performance hasn't been good in the last few years (I bought JPEL at the bottom after poor performance)

[diku] 02/1/2017 10:34

Looking at the 5 year chart a perfect text book mountain reversal formation...

[luckymouse] 02/1/2017 10:28

Tilts- well all you can do broadly is a) follow group breakouts pref in the strongest flow sectors, or catch a technical btm with a hard rising nav - there are a few other bits like due dil & catalyts to look out for - but thats basically it.
It works most the time - the rest is stone cold emotionless risk mgt - no point getting all neg about it & focusing on the small minority of dogs. The majority of ITs are up this year! The gainers are much stronger than the losers. Some are up around 100%.

I do agree that i dont like price action or nav that looks overly 'managed' - a good debate to be had around the subtleties & poss reasons behind - but basically they are prob not not being managed for your benefit :)
ATB LM

[tiltonboy] 30/12/2016 20:52

LM,

That is all well and good if you know where the bottom is. DCI looked good value at 26p, it had a catalyst at 22p, but only bottomed at 4p. GFIR looked good valued at 70p, and unless you were lucky with the Tenders, you are still holding them at 12p.

Sometimes the market price is telling it as it is, I am yet to be totally convinced!

[luckymouse] 30/12/2016 19:45

The worst dog is DCI - even that eventually bottomed and turned when they started some realisations - so its down to discount & catalyst - even if the mgnt are poor - to a trader a turn is a turn - lets see if the seller clears or news announced - which ever way it goes it cant be a long way off maximum extension here and the MMs will know that - so if they get a whiff of good news they may pull a fake out - that may be the cue

[eeza] 30/12/2016 19:05

You can't trust the management (scum-bags IMO) ergo you can't trust the NAV.
Whet & stick your finger in the air.

[tiltonboy] 30/12/2016 17:17

SKYSHIP,

They couldn't sell in the Tender, but didn't they sell some at a far lower price in the market subsequently. I still do not trust the NAV, but there does look to be some value on offer.

[skyship] 30/12/2016 17:13

LM - Yes, every dog has its price, so even though Robert Rayne is still there, at least the Rayne concert party didn't sell any stock in the last Tender, so they must be reasonably satisfied with the integrity of the last NAV valuation of 88p as at 30th June; as must the incoming managers.

Since then £Sterling has fallen another 6.7%, so with 2/3rds of the portfolio in US$, this alone would have added c4p to the NAV.

If we assume a 31st Dec’16 NAV of 90p, then the shares are offered at 55p on a 39% discount with two 6% Tenders in the offing.

With the PE sector ablaze, a small exposure here now looks a reasonable Risk/Reward play; though shareholders may have to wait patiently for news as there may be no IMS ahead of the Finals in mid-March.

[luckymouse] 30/12/2016 11:05

in the buyzone here - discount has increased - rising nav - sector breakout - a volume spike or bit of gd news here would trigger it speaking purely technically. The white candles & prc action would seem to indicate someone's been skillfully getting out via the back door ie dumping & buying the close or using an alternative exchange - never the less a catalyst right here would do it

[mad foetus] 07/12/2016 21:13

I must say I wouldn't play with fire when the last couple of times it has ended with a red hot poker up your boomole. Gresham seem less dodge than the LMS crooks, but it's a brave man who goes back for more.