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Real-Time news about Liberty Intl. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|galco: Would someone care to make informed comment about the volatility presently being shown by the LII share price? Seemingly up and down by more than 5% daily!
Makes no sense to me at all.|
|old china hands: Important: see "My Trading Rules" at the foot of this article.
Last week I warned my readers on Chart-Guide.com about the state of the British banking sector. I argued that the British economy was not immune to the effects of the US credit crunch, and I suggested that it would be a good idea to get out of investment property, and pay off debts. Since then, Ernst and Young's ITEM club has also suggested that UK growth could be trimmed a bit, and that property prices could fall. Some confirmation of my views, then, but I think they are way out as regards how bad it's going to be. This is because by the time it becomes clear in their data how bad things actually are, stock markets will already have tanked.
I drew attention to the weakness of the Northern Rock (NRK) chart as long ago as March this year at 1097p. Now the price is 486p. The latest bad news to emerge is that Northern Rock has had to go to the Bank of England for a bail out. Adam Applegarth, the CEO, said on Friday that the amount being borrowed '... is determined by collateral. Given that we are using our mortgage assets as collateral, it's clearly a substantial amount,'. So now the Bank of England, no less, is going long the UK residential property market. It will end in tears. Who could be next?
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On Chart-Guide.com I looked at Liberty International (LII), which is a commercial property company, on the 3rd September (chart above), and suggested that what then appeared to be a rallying price within an up trend channel was actually likely to find resistance at 1250p, break the trend channel, and create a head and shoulders reversal.
I think we've now seen the start of the down turn in the price to make the right shoulder. The chart above shows the trend channel, and the target of the head and shoulders: 700p.
*The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. Futures, CFD and Margined Foreign Exchange trading carries a high level of risk to your capital. A key risk of leveraged trading is that if a position moves against you, the customer, you can incur additional liabilities far in excess of your initial margin deposit. Only speculate with money you can afford to lose. Futures, CFD and Margined Foreign Exchange trading may not be suitable for all customers, therefore ensure you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent financial advice if necessary. MF Global is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.
Here's another way of looking at the up trend. Looking at it this way we see an already breached trend channel, with the price making a pullback to the trendline before turning down again. This is very common.
We now have a blue down trend channel, and resistance established at 1215p. Aggressive traders could use any short term strength in the share price to short the shares using the solid blue down trendline as a stop loss, or else the 1215p resistance level, depending on your personal risk profile.
With a head and shoulders pattern, the traditional way of trading is to wait for a breach of the neckline as the signal to go short. This would be given if the price closed below 970p and found resistance at 1000p. But I think there's a considerable risk that the price will gap down through the neckline, not giving much of a chance to trade in such a leisurely fashion. Getting in at the right shoulder, though more risky, might prove to be more manageable.
My Trading Rules
I actively trade the FTSE 100, Dow and Gold through spread betting and futures positions. t1ps.com Ltd does not believe that my articles can move the Dow, FTSE 100 or the gold price. If I have an open position or positions on any of the above at the time of publication of an article written by me, the existence of that interest and whether it is long or short will always be declared in the article in the format 'I have a long/short position in the DJIA/the FTSE 100/gold' as appropriate. This is in order to inform readers so that they may assess whether the existence of any such interest may have influenced the content of the article. Such disclosure does not constitute investment advice. The time of publication means the time at which an email containing the article is sent.
After publication of an article containing a disclosure of an open interest as above I may alter, or close the position or positions the subject of the disclosure without restriction. There are no restrictions on the opening of positions provided that any open interest is declared as above.
Bill Adlard is the editor of Chart-Guide.com, and renowned as a world expert in detailed Technical Analysis, particularly the area of Elliott Waves.|
|dondee: Telegraph Questor Column this week saying it may be time to set yourself free from Liberty, (don't the papers just love those funnies.) Certainly the chart is not too good. But NAV at subst. more than share price- takeover? Two way pull on emotions.|
|briansnape: Been watching this stock for over a year now, very interesting how the repurchasing of own stock and the very heavy buying by the chairman and others have had only negative effect on the share price.
Each time I decide to buy the price goes down just when you think it should go up.
Liberty International share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange