Lekoil Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 12:45

A litle more volume building up today

12:43:06 21.7500 233,929 O 21.2500 22.0000 Buy 365,849 108,000
12:18:53 21.7500 6,983 AT 21.0000 21.7500 Buy 131,920 108,000
12:18:53 21.7500 4,000 AT 21.0000 21.7500 Buy 124,937 108,000
12:18:53 21.5000 4,000 AT 21.0000 21.5000 Buy 120,937 108,000
10:19:46 21.2500 100,000 OK 21.0000 22.0000 Sell 116,937 108,000
11:16:01 22.0000 10,000 O 21.0000 22.0000 Buy 116,937 8,000
11:04:55 21.5000 53,000 O 21.0000 22.0000 ? 106,937 8,000
10:58:32 22.0000 608 O 21.0000 21.5000 Buy 106,937 8,000
10:56:40 21.3130 8,000 O 21.0000 22.2500 Sell 106,329 8,000
10:40:45 22.0000 57 AT 21.0000 22.0000 Buy 106,329 0
10:39:41 21.9000 1,350 O 21.0000 22.0000 Buy 106,272 0
10:34:49 21.9333 11,079 O 21.0000 22.0000 Buy 104,922 0
10:30:16 22.0000 12,444 O 21.0000 22.0000 Buy 93,843 0
10:19:21 21.9000 2,500 O 21.0000 22.0000 Buy 81,399 0
09:54:55 21.9333 50,102 O 21.0000 22.0000 Buy 78,899 0
09:12:58 21.6250 3,648 O 20.5000 22.0000 Buy 28,797 0
08:47:03 22.7500 4,552 AT 20.7500 22.7500 Buy 25,149 0
08:47:03 22.0000 4,000 AT 20.7500 22.0000 Buy 20,597 0
08:03:17 22.1250 5,367 O 20.2500 22.7500 Buy 16,597 0
08:02:50 22.7500 11,159 AT 20.2500 22.7500 Buy 11,230

[jailbird] 07/10/2016 08:55

It appears it getting ready to move again after consolidation.
Not long now

[craig t2] 05/10/2016 00:30

Not back in yet, too wobbly. LOL. Daytrading? Bahhh.

[alamaison5] 04/10/2016 04:59

Yep, not back in yet. To wobbly right now. No volume either...

[coxsmn] 03/10/2016 20:02

Oil price back above $50, Lek break even below $30. Fy2017 p/e 2.2.Dyor.coxsmn

[jailbird] 03/10/2016 10:56

nice consolidation above 20p now....25p,then 30p targets for me.

[alamaison5] 03/10/2016 10:38

No movement at all...Expecting news?

[fangorn2] 02/10/2016 16:20

I guess the local Nigerian Judge got his bun then!

"Nigeria can sue Chevron, Total over illegal exports, judge rules"
Nigeria’s government can take the local units of Chevron (NYSE:CVX) and Total (NYSE:TOT) to trial for illegally exporting crude oil, a judge at the Federal High Court in Lagos rules.



"Plenty of Political risk hence the low valuation...same everywhere in developing countries. Simply untrustworthy governments, with bribes required all along the chain...whether it be Oil or Mining"

Nigeria is taking several international oil companies - including Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B), Eni (NYSE:E) and Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) - to court for allegedly failing to declare more than 57M barrels of crude exports during 2011-14; the government says the oil was worth ~$13B.

Nigeria in a spot of finan cial bother given low POO -

So this is the solution.

Bogus charges to get some additional revenue streams.

[alamaison5] 01/10/2016 12:38

20p first...

[coxsmn] 01/10/2016 08:34

Next challenge 25.5p.Dyor.coxsmn

[craig t2] 29/9/2016 12:32

Not cracking it yet. A few weeks till production on last RNS. No seismic results after 2 years. Ministerial consent awaited. Pocket lining perhaps. Smells like to many African Oilies. Buckingham offloaded Heritage bang on the right price.

[alamaison5] 29/9/2016 11:25

Yep, now is now, lol

[jailbird] 29/9/2016 11:14

that is now!

[alamaison5] 29/9/2016 11:13

MM's always play the opposite as what you're expect. Then drop the price, lol.
I have set a new entry level and will stick to it.
Now 21.75p to buy.

[jailbird] 29/9/2016 10:44

Ngrm,

Maybe in your analysis, the breakeven point of less than $30 is higher than you would like to see, but it will still be bringing in positive cashflow from production

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 10:34

Fair enough in my excitement I used the words 'lifting costs' which isn't actually what I meant.

You are also wrong in that it doesn't include ALL E&P costs, it just includes development costs. Any exploration costs prior to FID aren't included.

Using the charts which are behind the curve re costs the average in Nigeria is $28, so LEK are close to the historical average for Nigeria. I'd think such a development starting today in Nigeria should come in around $20 except that the place is corrupt.

Looking at it another way would you sanction FID on a project that looked like returning 50% over the lifetime. I know I wouldn't, far too much risk for the return on the table.

The only reason small E&P's take on these projects is to keep the gravy train rolling for the BoD, they do nothing for shareholder value IMHO

[sb] 29/9/2016 09:49

ngms27 is carrying on blindly ... lalalalalala... .... $30 IS NOT lifting costs ... it is the overall life of field per barrel costs including all E&P costs as well as production:

"resulting in a break-even point of less than $30 per bbl (life of field basis)."

Here are the costs of production comparatives by country for 2016: hxxp://graphics.wsj.com/oil-barrel-breakdown/

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 09:28

$30 lifting costs are high in this market given it's a new development. I agree historically it's low.

But when I see new fields coming on stream in the hostile North Sea with lifting costs below $30 and also stated that the Falklands can be developed for $25 it does seem high.

@ $80 oil they would be laughing but at $45 oil shareholders are weeping. This field truly is marginal.

LEKs share in Ogo-1 last time was $50m this time they have a materially increased stake (subject to approval) so I cannot see the cost to LEK being below $20m even with a substantial farmout.

[fraserdean] 29/9/2016 09:16

Think you've mixed up some figures by mistake, a lifetime break even cost takes in full E&P costs over the lifetime of the field, not just lifting, $30 is actually very low. Also waiting on pioneer status which would drop it further, IF granted.
Think you mean Ogo not Obe. Realistically they won't drill in this market without a partner for which they are negotiating. With current costs an appraisal well will be significantly below $50m.
It's still a gamble though, hence the share price

[ngms27] 29/9/2016 08:36

Very underwhelmed I must say.

They are running with something like $21m in general and administrative expenses over a 12 month period. Who do they think they are? For a company this size they should be a 1/3 of this.

Then the Otakikpo field looks very marginal to me. It looks like they have borrowed close to $30m to develop it, spent $7m on a signature bonus for an NPV(10) of $77.2. It should never have been developed on those economic terms. With lifting costs of $30 per barrel (very very expensive in this market, even the Falklands are cheaper at $25 per barrel) it's not hard to see that this will only come good with a very material rise in POO.

Then they talk about phase II.

Quite simply they are going to need to raise $50m plus to drill Ogo as the cash flow isn't going to get them close. It ain't going to happen.

I hate to say it but it looks to me that LEK is being run for the privileged few to keep the gravy train rolling down the tracks.

[andy pipkin] 29/9/2016 07:59

alan really doesnt know much about financial reports. Or anything come to think of it.

[jailbird] 29/9/2016 07:55

I am not 100% sure yet about crude flying .. I think it may stabilize it between $45- $55 , but that is good enough for me.This is an agreement but has to put in place yet. Non-OPEC members needed to meet and agree any cuts too. But is a positive unexpected step which has surprised everyoneI see see Nigeria is exempt from these cuts

[gray1107] 29/9/2016 07:48

Nice time to start producing. Crude is going to really fly now, hold on to your hats.

[jailbird] 29/9/2016 07:47

Ala Do not worry about that statement ..going concerns are a standard paragraph in results.You will see it in other Cos results too