Lees Foods Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 13/10/2010 11:14

Looking rather good again today :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 08/10/2010 10:40

I hope you can Cornishman an I expect to have a treble up here for myself too :-)

They have a trading statement very early Jan if there's no news between now and then.

Just need Jim Slater to notice them too now :-)

CR

[cornishman33] 07/10/2010 00:33

CR
I read a lot but don't post often. I picked up some JDG last year and some VLX earlier this year, after you highlighted them. Thanks!
Bought some LEE today.
Can I expect a hat trick?

[cockneyrebel] 03/10/2010 19:13

I wouldn't take FIF paper either - nor would the directors imo.

LEE's just have to get taken out tho imo, there's no way they can perform this well and continue to trade on a fwd PE of 6.8 just on forecasts that are likely to get walloped imo.

Northern Foods is another that it would slot into tho perhaps too small for them.

After 17.2p eps in H1 these must do 35p eps for the year imo. The real PE here if broker forecasts were up to proper expectation i3 5.7 or less for the year ending Dec 31 imo. I wouldn't mind betting the fwd PE is really under 5.

Much like a year ago, if you read the directors statements they were cautious.

Sep interims last year they said they were ahead. By the Jan statement they said they'd be significantly ahead.

They never even gave an outlook at the year end in May but by July they were saying they were well ahead.

With these results they are saying they'll meet the full year revised forecasts. By the next trading statement I suspect that will be well ahead again.

If these don't re-rate significantly they are getting taken out by someone even if that's private equity or a non publically listed food co imo.

Did you see the cash? Nearly £1m better than this time last year - that's amazing growth in cash for a co this size. The higher interest will be worth nearly 1p eps on H2 imo.

CR

[yoyoy] 03/10/2010 19:03

CR,

FWIW I dont think the directors have any reason currently for selling out.

share holdings seemed to be well diversified, board holds c22%, major shareholders c18%, so not easy to put together a bid.

Not a huge volume traded so again not easy to build up a substantial holding.

When an ex-director sold his holdings they were purchased by the Board - well according to your heading:-)


eps growth is forecast to grow 56% to 28.1p. The estimate for 2011 is a very modest 5% to 29.5p - I expect the company to exceed that.


ohhh, and a big thanks for pointing out this share several months ago.

[davidosh] 03/10/2010 18:49

I do not think FIF have the firepower of borrowing capability for a bid and have done terribly out of their previous acquisitions IMO...just check out their share price over last three years ? I certainly would not want FIF paper..lol

[cockneyrebel] 03/10/2010 12:51

I think these will get a bid from FIF eventually.

Have a look at FIF's subsidiaties, all based in Scotland, Wales and one in Hull.

LEE would make the perect fit with all their cake/biscuit based products and being based in Scotland imo.

Both had results out last week - LEE is twice as profitable compared to sales - even a bid @ 350p would be earnings enhancing.

Here's FIF's subsidiaries:



CR

[cwa1] 01/10/2010 07:36

Nice one, thanks CR

[cockneyrebel] 29/9/2010 12:05

:-)

Should get some more coverage in the Scotsman, they tipped LEE a few weeks ago and they tend to follow up their tips.

CR

[strollingmolby] 29/9/2010 11:29

...but we'll have to see how it marzipans out...

[cockneyrebel] 29/9/2010 11:26

Yes, could see profits 'Snowball' :-)

CR

[cwa1] 29/9/2010 11:25

SM

in the sweet spot

Ouch :-)

[strollingmolby] 29/9/2010 11:23

Indeed - RGD & LEE in the sweet spot for passing on these increases.

[cockneyrebel] 29/9/2010 11:17

yep, I know strolling - I'm holding RGD.

Food co's will have no probs raising prices over the next 12 months imo, weat, sugar and other softs are all rising and the retailers know this will have to be passed on. Tesco have already priced it in on many products - the missus tracks a few for me and they have risen 20% in recent months now the consumer is feeling less fragile - no trouble for retailers to pass it on imo.

CR

[strollingmolby] 29/9/2010 11:10

CR, sugar prices are absolutely certain to rise, with effect from next week, per the presentation from Andrew Brown of Napier Brown at the Real Good Food presentation on Monday. EU reference prices will go up now that the supply-side has been satisfactorily reduced.

[cwa1] 29/9/2010 10:58

Managed to grab a few more a little while ago when they were offering 10,000 online. I think someone must have either given a few back, or they are working a sell order in the background. Hopefully that won't take too long to clear if it hasn't already done so.

[cockneyrebel] 29/9/2010 10:54

Agree CWA1. These might not produce gems but I guess they might do those little 'iced gems' that I used to eat as a kid :-)

They have to inject the note of caution res commidty prices imo smarm. They are a pretty cautious bunch of scots and they never go overboard on the hype so what you get is guarded imo.

I'm sure commodity prices like sugar are going to rise but that's the time co's like this have an excuse to lever a price rises imo.

I'd have been well chuffed if broker forecasts had stayed at 22p and today they had come out and raised them to 28p but it was slipped out a few weeks ago.

I'm more than confident they wouldn't have guided to 28p recently had they thought that was a tough ask myself.

Yep - murder to buy CWA1 - I've been buying up what I can as and when there was a bit of stock about.

CR

[strollingmolby] 29/9/2010 10:48

Results certainly appear impressive, with the growth suggesting a higher rating is warranted. Looking ahead, would they have capacity to continue increasing sales or are they constrained by space/capex limitations?

[smarm] 29/9/2010 10:41

CR - LOL - I'm here but digesting the cautionary note about commodity prices.

S

[cwa1] 29/9/2010 10:03

Grabbed a few to join you in these this morning CR. Weren't easy to get, broker moaned and huffed and puffed for a few thousand.

I think this suffers from not being a hot mining or resources stock-I blame that CR fella and his punt thread :-)) It's just a good, steady, "real" company that goes about its business making steadfast progress, has a PE ratio(what are they?), yield and good cashflow.

One to tuck away for the future as far as I am concerned.