Leaf Clean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tiltonboy] 27/8/2015 07:12

Specto,

Sorry, I should have updated after the sale of holdings last week. Whereas before, I felt the return of 35-40p could be achievable, that was on the basis of some further writedowns. After seeing the sale of assets at close to NAV, and understanding the exit mechanism for the Invenergy holding, I now feel that we are looking at a new range.

[spectoacc] 27/8/2015 07:00

I wish you'd updated your previous comment Tilts! ;)
"If currency remains favourable, I think we could see a return of 35-40p over the next 2-3 years."
But just glad to have finally got (mostly) out I think; good luck those still in.

[tiltonboy] 26/8/2015 14:02

SpectoAcc,

I believe there is a good reason why the shares have been stronger of late, and with increasing volume.

I believe the Invenergy holding will have increased in value given it's recent newsflow, and with some of the smaller holdings having been sold at close to NAV, this further enforces my view that the NAV is in the 50-60p range.

The Invenergy holding will be sold next year, with cash then accounting for the majority of the NAV. Having sold 20% of my holding recently, I am now looking to buy back that portion on any weakness. Had I known the mechanics then, I wouldnt have sold.

[flyfisher] 31/3/2015 09:51

This may be affecting the skyfuel sale.

[tiltonboy] 31/3/2015 08:54

Specto,

"Currently Leaf does not contemplate making any further material investments in its operating companies."

I would discount the cash for expenses though!

If currency remains favourable, I think we could see a return of 35-40p over the next 2-3 years.

[spectoacc] 31/3/2015 08:19

Yes, "At least", good point. Still - must be a chance of some upside by then, particularly from Invenergy, which will be 2016 at least before any disposal.

Inclined to discount the $9m cash, and assume it'll be needed to keep some investments funded.

[tiltonboy] 31/3/2015 07:54

...at least two years!

Comforting is the valuation of Invenergy, which is performing well, and covers the current SP, when taking cash into consideration.

[spectoacc] 31/3/2015 07:50

Report out this morning. Typical LEAF - it's good, it's bad, it's good, it's bad. I put far too much into these. Only the strong $ saved NAV from falling.

I liked this line:
"Therefore, there is no set timeline for realising Leaf's investments and it is difficult to precisely predict when the work of the Leaf Board and management will be complete. However, it will likely take at least two years to realise all of the investments. "

AKA:
"There's no timeline. But it's two years."

[badtime] 29/3/2015 13:11

Bit of a chunky trade there

[spob] 26/3/2015 23:08

27.5p Mcap 35.41m, NoS 129m

[tiltonboy] 23/3/2015 12:48

Crystal Amber have reported this morning, and remain confident that the new board is making solid progress in the realisation and increased visibility of Leaf' assets.

[cockerhoop] 20/3/2015 11:45

Changes in exchange rate won't have done any harm to NAV in £.

[tiltonboy] 20/3/2015 11:43

greasynut,

Their largest holding is Invenergy, which must be worth more than the $30m it cost. Add in the cash, and you are not too far off the current market cap.

In their last commentary, Crystal Amber suggested that there was still value to be achieved, in spite of a number of write-downs. The fact that they have now upped their stake to 29.9% gives me some comfort.

Perhaps, wont get back what I initially paid, but anything close to 40p would be a result.

[greasynut] 20/3/2015 11:11

Suddenly a lot of movement of holdings in the last few days.

Woodford and Lansdown partners appear to have sold out, the majority of these shares now being owned by Wiess and Crystal Amber.

CA now at 29.9% so we can't expect any more buying from them. They also have an activist seat on the board. Weiss are known activists.

Currently trading at a 50% discount to the last $ NAV.

Would be interesting to know how valuations are fairing in a lower energy price environment.


Hopefully things will get moving soon.

[tiltonboy] 18/3/2015 14:29

...and now Woodford departs!

[tiltonboy] 16/3/2015 13:16

So, that's where the other half of Lansdowne's holding went to.

Hopefully, CA's analysis of the inherent value in LEAF stands true, and we might still get a return.

It would be nice to see a disposal, and a first return of capital.

[badtime] 13/3/2015 19:37

Sky...ask Tilts what price he paid for DCI :)

[tiltonboy] 13/3/2015 15:05

As always, you need a decent broker!

They might even drift down to that level.

[skyship] 13/3/2015 14:52

Hmmm - sold out back in January a 33p - would be sorely tempted to get back in at 25p. Looks as though you managed a very special price there Tilts...

[tiltonboy] 13/3/2015 14:37

Didn't quite manager the price Weiss paid, but just averaged down (tut tut) at 25p.

[skyship] 13/3/2015 12:45

Hi Tilts - what price did they pay then. I don't see the Trade; and the Holdings RNS doesn't state price...

[tiltonboy] 13/3/2015 12:10

Interesting to Weiss come on board. Nice price they paid too!