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Real-Time news about Latin Res (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|billbyrne: Good to know somebody else is looking in. I keep posting so all the info
is easily to hand just in case anybody is looking in, but this is so far
off the radar i do wonder if its only me reading it.
Interest has certainly picked up on the asx, volume is up, the share price
is up. Our price is ticking up on the back of the buying over there, it
would be nice to see it the other way round.|
|orvis: In a normal takeover situation the latest news would help the company argue for a higher takeout price, especially with IBD down to 215 Yen at the moment.
However with the involvement of CSB in both co's I don't suppose Lodore will fight. Have to assume then that this news will help the IBD share price when today's news hits Japan.|
|orvis: Yes sheeneqa I get similar numbers...
- buy 10 LRS costs you £1.175 before costs
- receive 1.599 IBD shares currently worth 248 Yen each
- exchange rate is 198.5Y to the £ so sell the 1.599 shares for £2 before costs
= 70% profit before costs (or 82p profit per 10 shares before costs)
Of course the IBD share price is volatile but the 70% is a large margin so they would have to fall a long way before you even reach break even level. And if the Tethyan deal comes off they could rise from here not fall.|
|mach10: I think someone bought into IB daiwa hence the price jump plus possible floor under share price but can`t get exact holdings.There has been a change in significant holdings on August 15. if anyone knows more please post!|
|rambutan2: yes, i thought the rns looked great pb, and can see why the boss sounded so excited recently. however, i must admit im a tad confused over the implications of the ibd offer, and effectively surely it negates the effect this good news would normally have on the share price as the 18p is a done deal/cap?|
|ian.g: mr m
apologies in order - where did you get the presentation? and is it possible to get a copy as a mere shareholder ;-)
yes I'm in vti, and expecting something from the US in a little while that will blow the share price sky-high - sadly, despite the presence of a couple of very knowledgeable people, the BB thread has been trashed by childish and blinkered posters who don't want any debate.
have also been in and out of oxb this year, and keep an eye on it. Bid rumours sent it up a while ago, then sent it down again when nothing happened. They're sending it back up again now, and may turn out to be true one of these times - even without any bid they're potentially due a good rise this year.
If you're into mining stocks you might want to have a look at Marakand (MKD) - some excellent posters on the thread, and the share price has already gone up a lot this year - expecting confirmation soon of agreement for them to start up their first mine which will give payback in only 2 years. DYOR etc.
|ian.g: Not much going on at present - notice that Dr Williams has further incentivised himself to get the share price up, with 27m share options exercisable in 2008 at 14p... so every 3.5p rise from here is potentially worth £1m to him in 3 years time.
Back into snooze mode...|
|4johnb: Fusebox, I like your logic and agree with your approach. For anyone who has the patience to do some basic research there is plenty of reason to be reasonably comfortable with the deal at this stage, and with Dr Bob Williams. He has a track record that in this day and age is easy to find out. I do hope that someone from the company is looking at these boards though - we could do with some more information or update on the negotiations. I really don't think that barkley wyatt or any other person trading the stock has got anything to do with the current share price, its simply a lack of clear vision on whether lrs will end up with cash or the Novus US assets themselves|
You don't put money into a share like this based on fundamentals or track record - as you say, they don't have either.
This is a simple gambler's stock: it's like putting money into a cash shell with a share price two or three times NAV.
Logically it's ridiculous, so why would anyone do it?
1) you can afford to lose the money
2) you know that the share price will double or triple if the deals start to flow.
3) you think that the management are good enough to make those deals.
The slight dip in the share price has nothing whatsoever to do with Berkeley Wyatt. It's a direct response to the recent announcement, partially because Medco realised less than outsiders would have expected from the Apache sale, and partly because Lodore management are now exploring a different approach to the Medco North American assets.
Many people viewed these assets as a big heap of cash of unknown size, of which Lodore were entitled to a third of any value over 200m dollars. Medco have put them up for sale, so they were expected to be sold leaving Lodore with a pile of cash quite soon. Lodore's medium term objective is to build an oil/gas company (just as Dr Williams did successfully in Australia with Novus Petroleum), so the cash would be used to buy and develop oil assets primarily in the North American market which is Dr Williams speciality.
One of the four assets has been sold to Apache (I reported it on this board some time ago but Lodore only just announced it). The 'real' news in the announcement was that Apache had the right to buy that particular asset at a discounted rate under a buyback agreement, so the value realised was not very high. So some reaction to that was not surprising.
Secondly it is clear that the Lodore team are now investigating whether they can leverage their rights over the profits from the other sales to acquire some or all of the assets from Medco at a discount. So they would end up with the assets rather than a cash pile. This change in approach may also have helped the tick down as price tends to react badly to uncertainty or change in strategy.
Actually it makes sound sense - Dr Williams bought these properties for Novus some years ago, and knows them and their value and potential as well as anyone. Such a deal could speed up and simplify things for Novus, in that they wouldn't have to wait while other potential buyers did detailed assessments - Novus are known to want to dispose of these assets quickly. And it could save money and time for Lodore in that they wouldn't have to wait for the cash to come through then go looking for suitable investments elsewhere.
This was never going to be a safe easy ride for investors - if you want that, go elsewhere - but it's going to be interesting, and personally I think it will be rewarding - Dr Williams has a good track record, and he's got a lot of his own money in this company. DYOR etc...
In the short term you've done better being in Crosby than Lodore. There's no doubt that it's a safer place to be, with Crosby taking some (approx £10m?) of their profit now by selling down part of their holding, in return for a reduction in the possible future profits of Lodore... a bird in the hand?
As I've said previously Lodore is very much a gamble, albeit a gamble based on a lot of expertise in the form of the directors.
fyi, here is the rough breakdown I've done of the figures - I know they aren't precisely accurate, but given the speculative nature of the numbers there's no point in calculating to a high degree of precision.
Lodore at 14p (before the deal was announced) was valued at £18m as a cash shell with £6.4m of funds - in other words the market was prepared to give a 200% premium to the share price based on their belief in the dealmaking ability of the directors. This looks somewhat overcooked, but is indicative of enormous confidence in the management team.
The Sunov deal values Sunov at £65m ($120m), and Sunov's only tangible asset is the North American rights - 35% of any sales income over $120m from the proposed disposal of the North American assets by Medco/Novus.
To decide whether the deal is a good one (and what the Lodore share price should be) there are 2 key variables: the reasonable share price premium over actual cash in the shell, and the value of the North American assets.
The notional benchmark price of the Medco/Novus assets is $120m, the early 2004 valuation was $155-200m, and the directors believe the current valuation is higher again.
Based on a share price of 15p, if you were looking for Lodore/Sunov to have actual assets/cash equal to its market valuation (no share price premium), the North American assets would have to be sold for $460m - in other words their value would have to have risen by over 100% in the last year.
If the value has increased by 50% in the last year, giving a value of $300m, Sunov's interest is $63m, giving a share price premium of approximately 100%.
If the value has not increased above $200m, Sunov's interest is $28m, giving a share price premium of 300%.
Based on these scenarios you can take your own view on the likely share price premium and value of the assets, and come up with a likely direction for the share price
My own view, based on
1) the amount of investment by Dr Williams and Crosby
2) the previous rise in the valuation of these assets
3) the cautious but confident tone of the statements which have been made
is that the valuation will be around or above the $300m mark, leaving Lodore at a 15p share price with a valuation of twice its assets: only half the pre-deal premium, and with room for a share price rise.
But we're in the land of ifs and maybes - on the one hand I suspect the directors are hoping for even better than that, and on the other Medco/Novus might not sell at all...
dyor, not for widows and orphans... all the usual cautions apply here in triplicate... but it's fun isn't it? :-)
Latin Res share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange