Lancashire Share Discussion Threads

[jrphoenixw2] 02/3/2016 07:10

Peter Clarke (Non-ED) +14k @5.5172 1/3/16, (new total 14k)

[cwa1] 01/3/2016 16:41

Indeed. If it had been 2 or 3 thousand shares I would certainly have suspected an attempt to "puff" the share price but £250K is not small change even to a person of his, no doubt, wealth. Time will tell.....

[battyliveson] 01/3/2016 16:24

As you say spending £250,000 of your own money is a good show of faith. I have made a small investment. Strong US$ should help as well.

B

[speedsgh] 01/3/2016 16:04

CEO's purchase can be read as either positive (sees current price as an opportunity) or negative (trying to stem news-based falls) depending on your perspective, I suppose. Impossible to tell but a purchase worth £250k by the CEO is not an inconsiderable amount. Aimho.

Director/PDMR Shareholding -

[jrphoenixw2] 01/3/2016 15:41

Just seen the RNS alert that the CEO (Maloney) has today bought circa 44,553 at 560p. To take his total posn to 427k.

One bird doesn't make a summer, but...

[effortless cool] 01/3/2016 13:27

Top underwriters move all the time in London and businesses don't disintegrate because if it. Good underwriters tend to have good deputies ready to grasp the opportunity and a 12-month notice period during which their former employer can work towards ensuring retention of their business.

Where Cathedral will become truly unstuck if is the departees take their teams with them. Hopefully, Lancashire have made sure that they lock the deputies in.

[speedsgh] 01/3/2016 13:12

Some interesting tweets in past 24hrs from Adam McNestrie (editor of The Insurance Insider) -

Adam McNestrie ‏@adammcnestrie 3h 3 hours ago
John Hamblin formerly of Cathedral doesn't have a new job to go to yet: sources.

Adam McNestrie ‏@adammcnestrie 4h 4 hours ago
Lancashire smashed this morning £100mn off the share price. Backs against the wall. I've asked for an interview - let's see what comes back.

Adam McNestrie ‏@adammcnestrie 20h 20 hours ago
Mark Wilson and Simon King have resigned from Cathedral. Whole business disintegrating. Disaster for Lancashire. That's the top 5 guys.

EDIT - Also this tweet from mid-Feb now seems astute in light of recent events (assuming last earnout payment has now occurred)...

Adam McNestrie ‏@adammcnestrie Feb 18
Lancashire not replacing Cathedral CEO Peter Scales. Real question is what happens day of the last earnout payment - either Feb or March...

[effortless cool] 01/3/2016 12:46

It's simple enough, I think - a long-standing culture clash and lock-in periods ending.

[ursus] 01/3/2016 12:24

Coolie - why such a raft of Cathedral departures? Have you an insider's insight?

[effortless cool] 01/3/2016 11:43

Indeed I should not have done.

Regarding damage, it's hard to say. Losing good people will certainly damage the Cathedral franchise, but won't harm its intrinsic value as a Lloyd's managing agency. The departees will probably be on twelve months' notice and Cathedral will have a good shot at retaining their business on renewal.

At the end of the day, we're probably looking at short-term pain but no material long-term damage.

[joan of arc] 01/3/2016 10:00

Well EC it looks like you should not have closed your December short. Do you know any more regarding potential damage?

[garycook] 01/3/2016 09:38

Topped up. Bargain at these levels.

[bulltradept] 01/3/2016 09:03

Having a look at digital look there is only one broker which has this as a strong buy.

[effortless cool] 29/2/2016 21:13

They are losing very good people.

[joan of arc] 29/2/2016 18:56

So are they losing a good team or a bad one?

[speedsgh] 29/2/2016 17:14

More upheaval at Catherdral, it would appear...

Changes at Cathedral -

Lancashire Holdings Limited (Lancashire) has today announced changes to the Cathedral underwriting teams further to the management appointments announced last week of Alex Maloney, to the role of Chief Executive of Cathedral Capital Limited, and Richard Williams as the Cathedral Active Underwriter and as a director of Cathedral Underwriting Limited (CUL).

Underwriters Simon King, Mark Wilson and Nicholas Destro have tendered notice to resign, which have been accepted.

Alex Maloney said:
"We thank Simon, Mark and Nick for their contribution to the success of Cathedral. They have now decided to move on and we will work with them during their notice periods over the coming year to ensure continuity in our client service."

[speedsgh] 26/2/2016 14:07

jrp - I've no doubt it will show up here in due course...

[jrphoenixw2] 26/2/2016 13:15

Does anyone have the FX rate for the latest div? Today is the R/D, and the rate was to be fixed at Noon. I make it around 1.396 [on US$0.10], but that's an estimate. I'd be grateful if/when anyone has the actual they'd post it up here.

[speedsgh] 26/2/2016 12:46

Management changes at Cathedral -

Hamblin to leave Cathedral -

Cathedral active underwriter John Hamblin has been named as the latest senior executive to leave the Lancashire Holdings-owned Lloyd's insurer.

In a statement, London-listed Lancashire also confirmed that outgoing Cathedral CEO Peter Scales will not be replaced externally, with group CEO Alex Maloney instead adding the position to his responsibilities from 1 April 2016.

And it said that Cathedral managing director Lawrence Holder will step down from the role next year.

Hamblin's departure comes after rumours that he and other... [SUBSCRIPTION ONLY]

[garycook] 21/2/2016 23:48

As I read it.LRE are keeping the Special Dividend money for a rainy day.If there are no big claims Re 2016,then the year end Special should be good,and a big one.

[speedsgh] 21/2/2016 17:07

The following Q4/Final Results Earnings Call Transcript is well worth a read. In particular section pasted below...

Lancashire Holdings' (LCSHF) CEO Alex Maloney on Q4 2015 Results: Earnings Call Transcript -

I think on the general market comments, I mean it’s incredibly hard to call the bottom of any market. I’m definitely not saying this is the bottom of the market. I suppose my comments are really based around, if you look at people’s results for ‘15 including ours up to a point in a world where on the underwriting side, not much has happened at all. I don’t think they look that sparkling for the industry. And then, if you just see some of the behavior that’s happening now, it does appear that people are really thinking quite cautiously about can they give an another reduction. We are seeing some kind of pushback. And that kind of feels like to me at the end of the late 90s, that’s what happened. People did slow down a bit and people did question things a bit more. That’s not to say the market’s going to go up, but I’m still in the minority that thinks that the second you get some meaningful losses and you overlay them on the industry’s results, there is just not much margin for error. So, people could be in the red quite quickly.

And then if history repeats itself, which it probably will, you’ve got a number of events quite quickly. And then you just look at the investment markets, there’s just so much going on. I think you’d go from -- I think the industry could go from looking vaguely okay to pretty awful quite quickly. And then you just overlay the human element of any market. So, our strategy, as we said earlier, at the moment is all about trying to be there for that market whatever that may be. And I think we all agree it won’t last very long when it comes. And you have to be in the best shape you can to take advantage of it and that at the moment whether it’s investing or underwriting, means capital preservation. You’ve got to have the capital. You’ve got to be ready to go. You’ve got to be in the best shape. That doesn’t mean we wouldn’t lose money. We are part of the market. We would surely expect to lose money in a very large event. But if we’re in good shape, we think we could take advantage post-loss.

So, you have to be patient; it’s quite boring. We’ve been saying it for a long period of time. But I’m more interested in trying to make more money in the future than what I am today because it’s incredibly hard trying to do anything today and reaching for any kind of yield now; there’s a huge risk associated with that.

[garycook] 20/2/2016 00:36

Well done.Just need the Dividend stream to continue with a Special later in the year.Had £1.06 in Div,s for 2015.If the Special is paid the same year end, then around 70p for 2016.

[cwa1] 19/2/2016 14:24

Afternoon

Decided to get back in here at a little under £6 to join you lot. Good fortune with it :-)

[speedsgh] 19/2/2016 09:11

Lancashire shares undervalued -

Lancashire (LRE), the specialist insurer that focuses on aviation, marine and terrorism risk, has reported ‘remarkable’ performance despite disappointment from some about the lack of special dividend.

Shore Capital analyst Eamonn Flanagan reiterated his ‘buy’ recommendation but does not have a target price on the shares, which fell 12p to 617p yesterday.

‘Lancashire reported 2015 results which were comfortably ahead of both our and the market’s expectations in respect of profits and net asset value,’ he said. ‘However, there appeared to be some in the market that had expected another special dividend despite pretty clear indications from the group that this was unlikely… the overall performance of Lancashire in 2015 was quite remarkable, in our view.’

Flanagan said the strength of the firm’s underwriting and capital discipline made it a target for ‘corporate predators’ and the shares were undervalued.

‘Trading at c.1.8x our 2016 net tangible asset value of 355p with a c.7.8 % forward yield we view the shares as undervalued,’ he said.

[speedsgh] 18/2/2016 10:15

Yes, correct. No additional special alongside the final maintenance dividend payment of USD 0.10 this year. That makes a full year payment of USD 1.10 (c73p) which is not to be sniffed at. I do like the conservative way in which the company is run + the way that they do not go chasing top line premium growth at any cost. Very happy to continue holding LRE as core constituent of long term income portfolio.

DIVIDEND HISTORY
TOTAL FY 2015 - USD 1.10 (???.??p)
final (Mar 16) - USD 0.10/?.????p
special (Dec 15) - USD 0.95/63.1292p
interim (Sep 15) - USD 0.05/3.2492p
---------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2014 - USD 1.85 (120.02p)
special (Apr 15) - USD 0.50/33.8333p
final (Apr 15) - USD 0.10/6.7666p
special (Dec 14) - USD 1.20/76.4112p
interim (Sep 14) - USD 0.05/3.0135p
---------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2013 - USD 0.80 (48.91p)
special (Apr 14) - USD 0.20/12.1133p
final (Apr 14) - USD 0.10/6.0566p
special (Dec 13) - USD 0.45/27.54p
interim (Sep 13) - USD 0.05/3.20p
---------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2012 - USD 2.10 (134.84p)
special (Apr 13) - USD 1.05/69.05p
final (Apr 13) - USD 0.10/6.58p
special (Dec 12) - USD 0.90/56.05p
interim (Sep 12) - USD 0.05/3.16p
---------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2011 - USD 0.95 (61.06p)
final (Apr 12) - USD 0.10/6.35p
special (Dec 11) - USD 0.80/51.65p
interim (Sep 11) - USD 0.05/3.06p
---------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2010 - USD 1.55 (97.96p)
final (Apr 11) - USD 0.10/6.16p
special (Jan 11) - USD 1.40/88.56p
interim (Sep 10) - USD 0.05/3.24p
---------------------------------
TOTAL FY 2009 - USD 1.40 (85.36p)
final (Apr 10) - USD 0.10/6.66p
special (Jan 10) - USD 1.25/75.62p
interim (Oct 09) - USD 0.05/3.08p