Kopane Share Discussion Threads

[123asd] 07/8/2010 16:20

And why at 25p? Where does this assumption come from?

[wdurham] 07/8/2010 16:08

123asd -

Simple. There are FAR more AIM punters than there are AIM investors like us! Ergo, they control the share price - we can't because there aren't enough of us.

And alternatively, I know some companies that are earning nicely and STILL get repeatedly trashed. VGM being a classic case in point.

Traders using derivatives - spreadbets and T+ - rule the AIM market, and they are in and out in a day or two (sometimes only hours!) with their ha'pennies and pennies. It used to be tuppences, but they won't wait for tuppence any more. Mayflies, the lot of 'em.

Value is no longer a concept that folk are willing to accept. All that matters is the ability to make a quick in and out profit. When you operate on margin you can buy so many that even a ha'penny is a very good return for a few hours...

Once my few underwater stocks come good - and they will - I am out of AIM for good. I don't want to live in a betting shop, and that's what AIM has become. You can't even call it a casino any more - the surroundings are far too tawdry.

[jimmyjagger] 07/8/2010 16:01

Lets say FDI raise £15m @25p in Q4 to set them up for 2011

Thats another 60m shares on top of the 144m to buy out KDD

So you're looking at 333m shares in issue by the end of the year

At 30p that's a market cap of £100m which seems too high at this stage

Right now the combined market cap of FDI and KDD is something like £66m

[123asd] 07/8/2010 15:54

Wendy - I don't disagree with your assessment of AIM punters, I only dispute the influence you ascribe them in determining the share price.
Time and again I've seen the share price of AIM explorers with no earnings repeatedly trashed, no matter what their potential or asset value. Only when they are producing something that provides steady income do they achieve some kind of stability. We've been disappointed in KDD in this respect several times already, but I do think that with this FDI hook-up, we are at last about to achieve such a state. That's assuming we are not bought out.

[wdurham] 07/8/2010 14:47

I disagree, 123asd. All AIM punters are interested in is what will give them a ha'penny this afternoon. They won't hold past the boundaries of their broker's T+ limits. People like you and me, who actually like to INVEST in a company are now very few and far between.

[123asd] 07/8/2010 14:40

Oh Wendy, no need to paint the situation quite so black, I think; sentiment in AIM stocks, as in any other market, can turn on a sixpence, given the right kind of news.

[123asd] 07/8/2010 13:59

pembury - agreed, and it's very difficult to make any kind of call on the possibility of a counter bid, the parties involved having kept this one tight for so long. I'd say unlikely, but that's just a guess, and one could come out of the blue.

[pembury] 07/8/2010 13:11

42p gives KDD a value of around 19p. Can't see that happening until the deal is complete. Would like to see both SP's trading near parity of the deal value come expiry. Both GM's not far off for voting , if no counter by then then it will get the go ahead for sure imo.

[123asd] 07/8/2010 12:51

And good riddance.

[b m n 1] 07/8/2010 12:44

Managed to open the newsletter, so 42p then. Should see a rise here on the back of it, maybe more than 12.75p with a bit of luck.
GLA

[123asd] 06/8/2010 14:06

Of course you don't, but as I say, if you believe in the fundamentals, then buying at or near historical lows makes sense, if for no other reason than to minimise risk.

[andy] 06/8/2010 13:50

123,

How do you know how low it's going to go?

[123asd] 06/8/2010 12:07

I've never understood the logic of wanting to bail from a stock when it's at or near its lows. It seems to me that fear is the driving factor in such cases - fear, whether justified or no, of total collapse in the share price or bankruptcy - when in fact the contrarian would urge buying, if the fundamentals were good - which they are here.

[half a scargill] 06/8/2010 11:50

No answer?

Oh well.

GS - somebody is still happy to hoover up these shares at >10p. This has been the case for the last few months. You have to wonder why?.

The answer is that somebody obviously sees value at this price.

[half a scargill] 06/8/2010 10:20

Weakness/strength post merger will all depend on :

- Newsflow. How quickly will they restart the KDD operation up? How are FDI's existing assets performing?

- Large shareholder trades. Will Scolaro stay with the enlarged company or look to seel off his holding as quickly as possible? There is always the possibility he will try to take over the whole enlarged company as part of a larger plan! He does after all have other interests in Africa.

- Corporate sentiment. Will the other large holders want a quick roi?

- Rough prices. If they head back down then we're pretty screwed anyway!

[giant steps] 06/8/2010 10:04

HaS, i'm thinking those shorting both stocks from the
start of this public marriage are getting a win-win.
( unfortunately i don't do shorts, although selling
actual stock i suppose counts as short of a desired
position !)


Post merger may see further price weakness imo.

[b m n 1] 06/8/2010 10:03

FDI are now approaching a year low, I suppose some bottom feeders could see this as a opportunity but I see it as I am now locked in a share where my fate is controlled by a disappointing company on a costant decline to a year low.
This is going to be a LONG 2 months!
GL

[half a scargill] 06/8/2010 10:01

Not really.

My feeling is that once the formalities are completed, the company will be repriced on the assets they have, which are worth considerably more than the sum of the current valuation.

[b m n 1] 06/8/2010 10:00

Are you basing that on anything?