Kofax Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 19/7/2010 16:45

The KFX valuation looks compelling when you see the 2011 forecasts.

Last years numbers are distorted by the restructure charge.

On 2011 Consensus estimates the PER drops dramatically to approx 14.5.
The 2011 forecasts look too low, however I will go with that.

KFX had cash balances of $30 Million at 31/12/2009,
as KFX throws off cash, perhaps now close to $40 Million.

Allow for the Net Cash and you are paying approx 13x 2011
expected numbers - this is before likely upgrades.


KFX is the Global leader in Capture, the rating is just too low imv,
and will not remain this way.

[essentialinvestor] 19/7/2010 13:41

Intra-Day high was 270 just a few weeks back.

[cockneyrebel] 19/7/2010 10:40

Large trades.

CR

[essentialinvestor] 18/7/2010 11:09

Agreed, and another Non Exec adding a further 10,000 shares recently.

Significant upward scope in Software margins beside this imo.

[cockneyrebel] 18/7/2010 11:00

I think the hardware division will be going myself EI.

From Feb:

"LONDON (Dow Jones)--Document management company Kofax PLC (KFX.LN) Monday said it hasn't ruled out selling off its hardware business, as continued weak trading in the division is offsetting solid growth in its core operations.
Kofax--which provides digital scanners and software for invoice processing and archiving documents--said its first half, ended Dec. 31, result was weighed on by continued tough trading in its scanning hardware business. Conversely Kofax's core software sales jumped 17% in the half.
"The issue for the board is what's its [the hardware business] long-term value and what does it imply for the company," Chief Executive Reynolds Bish told Dow Jones Newswires Monday.
He said no decision has been made on what action to take, but the board will have to decide whether to restructure, dispose or retain the hardware business. "We're going to put all the options on the table," he said.
On a brighter note, Bish said margins from hardware sales weren't getting any worse. "I think it's stabilized now and we don't expect that they'll get any worse," he said."

---------

Something is happening whether they sell it, split it of or whatever they do.

The chairman buying 70K on June 10 (12 weeks ahead of the results) and increasing his holding by 20%+ looks interesting too, agree, especially the way they've all been buying.

CR

[essentialinvestor] 18/7/2010 10:19

Margins are the key to unlocking value in Kofax imv.

KFX will turnover in excess of £200 Million this year.

Margins are currently below the Sector, there is significant upward scope
as the Canaccord Adams note clearly highlights.

Even a couple of basis points improvement and profitability dramatically
increases.

I suspest this is what the Chairman and Directors have spotted,
and may be a factor behind the continued multi Director buying.

The Chairman Greg Lock knows this Industry inside out, his large continued buying is particularly interesting - he now holds nearly 400,000 KFX shares.

[cockneyrebel] 14/7/2010 08:26

Intel beat last night abd raised guidance for PC sales - good news for KFX imo.

CR

[essentialinvestor] 13/7/2010 13:53

CR

This reminds me of Flomerics, if you remember that one.
Global niche Software provider, products highly rated by the Industry.

[essentialinvestor] 13/7/2010 13:27

Reassuring to see a New FD spending over £350,000.

I think Greg Lock's Buying is even more interesting,
and that is what really grabbed my attention.

He already held over 320,000 shares before his latest purchase.
And decides to snap up another 70,000 at 2.35 -
just weeks before the Year End.

A bid is always a possibility here.
KFX would make a great fit for AU., EMC or Iron Mountain imv.

Kofax is far more valuable to a larger Company,
stip out overlapping costs and the profitability rises rapidly.

[cockneyrebel] 13/7/2010 12:55

Oh, and the new KFX FD just bought 150K :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 13/7/2010 12:53

KFX trading update next week according to the latest broker note.

CR

[cockneyrebel] 13/7/2010 12:50

looking a bit lively this am - trading update next week so we'll see what they have to say.

CR

[essentialinvestor] 13/7/2010 09:34

The KFX share price is following a clear pattern imv,
making a series of New higher highs and lower lows.

In Feb the shares traded down to mid 160's, having touched 190
a few weeks earlier.

By Mid March they had broken out to a new 12 month High trading up to 220.

The recent New high (mid 260's) and retrace, just follows the previous pattern imv.

The Upwards movements tend to be compressed into a few days,
moving very quickly when moving upwards.

Full Year results early Sept, and I would expect a strong run Up to those,
making another 12 month high in the process.


All imv, as always.

[cockneyrebel] 12/7/2010 19:39

little bit of stock left to clear then these should get a move on imo.

Cr

[hectorp] 12/7/2010 13:30

I did note this news. Expected a little upside today, but it isn't to be.

[edcrane] 12/7/2010 07:25

Research note out this morning from Canaccord

Kofax (KFX : LSE): Results preview -- BUY, target price 310p

KFX : LSE : 240p | £199.0M | Buy, 310p
• Results preview -- BUY, target price 310p

Event
With the June year-end now closed, Kofax reports officially on 6 September 2010. However, we would expect a trading update around 22 July. On balance, we would expect the numbers to be slightly ahead of our forecasts but a strong outlook that will support the stock.
Guidance
Kofax last updated the market at the end of April. At this time management guided to high single-digit software business revenue growth and low single-digit hardware business revenue decline. Our forecasts are for 10% organic software business revenue growth and 4% hardware business decline.
Forecasts
We forecast revenue of US$335 million (consensus US$334 million), operating profit of US$25 million (consensus US$25.4 million) and adjusted EPS of 17c (consensus 18.8c).
Developments since April
Board members have bought £540k of shares. Kofax has appointed a new CFO and a new Chief Marketing Officer. In May and June Kofax announced six deals worth US$7 million versus two deals worth US$2.8 million in the comparable period.
Valuation
If we assume distribution is worth some US$30 million (add this to the US$42 million net cash) and that Kofax can achieve margins of at least 15% on its software business in the next year or two then the latter is worth US$400 million. Total target EV would then be some US$470 million (£300 million). We believe this type of approach substantially underpins our 310p price target. Kofax remains a top pick for us.

[cockneyrebel] 09/7/2010 15:29

Q3 trading said these were ahead - must be a year end trading statement to confirm whether they meet, beat or smash I'd have thought - year end June 30.

Cr

[cockneyrebel] 09/7/2010 15:05

Added 5K here today after this large volume and large trades - back to the 235p director buying level

CR

[essentialinvestor] 08/7/2010 09:06

Looking an interesting entry point on the Chart following the recent retrace imv.

There is a very large PE drop to come on the upcoming Full Year results.

The Prospective x then drops to under 14, as KFX should easily do 17 on EPS
next year imo.

KFX are also worth considerably more to someone like Iron Mountain or EMC.

Take a look at the cost of Sales alone, and you quickly get the picture.

[sportbilly1976] 25/6/2010 14:42

A 10 yr chart?? Advfn only has it going back to early '08....

clasic re-test of resistance as support here imo before next leg upwards resumes...

[abc125] 23/6/2010 22:33

They've sold a good whack. I expect they might want to get rid of the rest. Someone's keen to pick them up though.

[cockneyrebel] 23/6/2010 13:02

Aberforth gone below 5% - who's picking up all this stock?

Must be an increased or large new holdings RNS soon surely? Large volume here over the past fortnight.

CR

[cellars] 22/6/2010 05:16

for what it is worth I have had a 325p target for some months now. Hope to move it up post interims

[cockneyrebel] 21/6/2010 15:59

A 10 year chart would look good Sportbilly :-)

CR