Kin Share Discussion Threads

[ursus] 21/2/2002 08:49

ratty - heard anything on your grapevine to explain kiln's recent weakness? is it just general sector nerves brought on by wellington and svb's disasters, or does someone know something i don't about the next quarterly returns? surely kiln is approaching buy levels again, if there isn't something nasty in the woodshed

[ursus] 15/2/2002 15:57

what a busy day for lloyds news - wellington provide a stinking reforecast of WTC losses, but kiln, true to form, gives us a healthier piece of info. and it now becomes a little easier to understand how they have financed their increase of capacity to take advantage of the 2002 rate hikes. they get £2.5m of working capital in exchange for a 5% dilution of the equity. and the new investor is backing the capacity increase for 2002 with QS treaties. reasonable enough i suppose, depending on the terms of those QS arrangements

[ursus] 24/1/2002 00:41

and remember also for WUN that they no longer have the same active u/w's who did outperform (even if eith the help of stop-loss) in the late nineties

[king rat] 24/1/2002 00:30

Ursus,

I also felt that Wellington's 2002 capital raising was a fiasco but the market appeared to differ, and the shares soared on the back of the announcement that they were going to start an insurance company.

Recent price movements are interesting - perhaps we're going to see a deterioration in performance this quarter. Wellington's superb results over the last few years have, I believe, been built on the excellent strategic decision to buy a multi-year whole account stop loss. Given the size of the syndicate, however, it's difficult to believe that the underlying business can be very much better than the rest of the market. Perhaps, without the stop loss protection, it will be rather harder to see why Wellington deserve a premium rating.

Regards.

King Rat

[king rat] 23/1/2002 15:39

Amlin have just reaffirmed their WTC losses at the previous level, which should help steady the market.

[ursus] 22/1/2002 17:25

great - thanks! also looks as if the market is alive to wellington's "previous" for revision of WTC estimates. like you i've rather fallen out of love with WUN, and they are now at about the level where i sold. how their management survives the fiasco over raising 2002 capital i dont know

[ursus] 22/1/2002 16:40

well - kiln have so far survived the mini shake-out that was presumably precipitated by Cox's dire revision of 11/9 losses. this news will be an interesting test of the reserving accuracy and strength of other syndicates....

[king rat] 18/6/2001 13:50

Kiln amended their 1999 forecast at 2001 q1 for Syndicate 510 to a result of between -6.0% and -1.0% of capacity. This is based on a nil surplus/deficit from prior years.

I come up with a very similar result of -6.2% to -1.2% for 1999 pure. I now have rather better data on which to estimate any prior year movements and, taking this into account, my latest forecast for 1999 is a result between -4.7% to +2.8%. (This compares to -6.3% to + 1.7% last quarter).

Kiln have not yet published a forecast for 2000, but I'm estimating -2.8% to +5.2% (-4.1% to +5.9% last quarter).

It is very early days for 2001. I expect it to be a better year than 2000, but not dramatically so, since 2000 was a "lucky" year in terms of insured catastrophes. My first, indicative forecast (on a moderately pessimistic basis) is -2.4% to 7.6%.

A very positive picture for shareholders, overall.

Regards.

King Rat

PS HarleyMaxwell - No time to look at Chaucer - sorry.

[harleymaxwell] 05/6/2001 17:46

King Rat
v good informative posts- i would be interested in your vies on chaucer as i see that a large line of shares was bought recently.any chance of similar analysis on this one?
thanks

[king rat] 05/6/2001 15:19

Aquila,

Please could you edit that into comprehensible English.

King Rat

[aquila] 05/6/2001 15:09

Anone short to 60p ?

regards, A.

[king rat] 05/6/2001 14:19

harleymaxwell,

I like Goshawk (GOS) and think Ockham (OCK) is a dog. See the threads on those companies for my comments.

King Rat

[harleymaxwell] 05/6/2001 13:49

any views on the other lloyds agencies-chaucer is well below float price for example?

[king rat] 05/6/2001 13:46

I've just completed a reserve review of Kiln's largest syndicate, 510. I based this on data from regulatory returns to Lloyd's as at end-2000. It's not ideal for this purpose, but is sufficient to give a good reasonableness check on Kiln's published forecasts and the adequacy of past year's reserves. It is also useful for giving an early indication on the 2000 year of account.

For 1999, Kiln's forecast result at 2000 q4 was for a loss of between -6.5% to -1.5% of capacity. My calculations give very similar results.

It's hard to assess reserve adequacy for 1998 and prior because the reinsurance to close received from 1998 includes reserves in respect of business written on syndicates reinsured into 510, whilst the triangulation figures available to me only cover business written by 510 itself. However, assuming that net IBNR can be split in between these categories in the same proportion as net outstanding claims, that suggests there is surplus in the prior year reserves that could be released to the benefit for 1999.

Overall, including prior year movements, my forecast range for Kiln 510 in 1999 is -6.3% to +1.7%. This compares with the forecast Lloyd's Market average loss of -11.0% at that time.

Kiln have not yet published a forecast for the 2000 year of account. My calculations suggest that 2000 is likely to be better than 1999, and may produce a profit without any assistance from prior years. My forecast is for a result between -4.1% and +5.9%. With the syndicate's high exposure to the buoyant UK motor market and the low catastrophe activity in 2000, I would expect this range to narrow from the bottom up as the 2000 year develops. Kiln will not be publishing their forecast for 2000 until August this year, so that will provide a useful check on the validity of my calculations.

At 2000 q1, Kiln improved their forecast for 510's 1999 result to -6.0% to -1.0%. At the same time, the Lloyd's average loss deteriorated further to -11.7%. I'll have access to this first quarter data shortly, and will update my forecasts at that time.

Overall, I rate Kiln a strong buy.

Regards.

King Rat.

[usedbook] 14/5/2001 04:53

The shares do look too cheap having fallen from the 1.40 region.
Kiln looks a good way of betting on better results at Lloyds after three torrid years.

[glmorris] 13/5/2001 14:16

also tipped in IC

[kp1] 13/5/2001 11:23

LLOYD'S insurers such as Kiln have had a torrid time over the past couple of years, squeezed by overcapacity, rock bottom rates and a series of huge catastrophe claims in the late 1990s.


Kiln, which specialises in reinsurance and special risks insurance, now looks well placed to benefit as rates strengthen. Kiln's underwriting business returned to profit in 2000 in a difficult market, but its full year results were below expectations.

The better news is that premium rates are rising fast in the two key areas where Kiln suffered in 1998 and 1999 - motor insurance and medical expenses. In the past year Kiln has focused on its core business, selling off its stake in an investment fund manager and launching a review of its UK retail business.

The company is also planning to increase its underwriting capacity from £346m to £500m in 2002 to take advantage of the strengthening rates. The shares have recovered from a lowly 33p a year ago to the current 74p, but should have further to go as the insurance market improves. Buy.

Taken from today's telegraph. Last weekend was tipped in Red Hot Penny Shares.

[boris bonkbadly] 16/11/2000 18:45

Whoever reads this thread please remember that Ashley James is a compulsive liar and under no circumstaces should his postings be considered as true, in fact please research his past handywork on the EUA or MNT threads!
boris.

[Abuse team] 16/11/2000 18:34

Post removed by ADVFN

[mungoa] 16/11/2000 15:56

Just dont buy into the reinsurers or syndicates covering the personal lines.....they are still soaking up the losses from the floods...with 5 more months before spring drys out.

:O)

[sirgallahad] 16/11/2000 15:46

Check out Kiln - some big trades going through in the last few days after several weeks of little activity. From memory, directors bought in at around 50p in the Spring and again in May at around 35p.

I know that insurance rates in a number of classes of business which Kiln underwrite have been increasing and there is also likely to be some consolidation of Lloyd's syndicates. As one of the smaller syndicates, Kiln could be a takeover target.Even if not, they have a good management team and will definitely benefit from the underwriting cycle upturn which looks as if it's gaining pace.

Bought 40,000 plus shares in February and regretted not selling them at around 70p in late July after which the price dropped back to 50p or so where it has been until the last few days when it has risen to 53p.

Those of you who follow the daily Directors Dealings article in the financial pages of the Times may have noticed it has reported buying by directors of at least two or three other Lloyds Underwriters in recent weeks. This just confirms me in my belief that the underwriting tide is turning and that Lloyd's underwriters results are expected to be much better in 2001.

Could be a good opportunity to avoid the turmoil of the tech. stocks and get in on something safer but with with good upside potential. DYOR etc