Kier Share Discussion Threads

[and1] 16/3/2018 12:24

will be like HIK, manipulated down to 860 and up 30% now in 2-3 days

[riviera1069] 16/3/2018 12:22

May even finish blue. Lol

[riviera1069] 16/3/2018 12:21

Bkg was down a similar percentage but has recovered somewhat now. This will do the same.

[cc2014] 16/3/2018 12:18

Fall is crazy. I'm in intraday

[and1] 16/3/2018 12:13

hard to trade this as there is manipulation. medium term 16 sounds good

[careful] 16/3/2018 11:58

results did not look too bad.
why the fall
what did I miss?

[linton5] 16/3/2018 11:51

Support 955 then 891 guys

[cantrememberthis2] 16/3/2018 11:46

No way 10%... Its probably going sub 950... Two tranches in...one tranche left..

[riviera1069] 16/3/2018 11:45

Yep. If not a trade today (maybe back up to 1000) im thinking 10% leading up to x divi.Good luck

[cantrememberthis2] 16/3/2018 11:37

Just testing lows... I'm in for a trade

[riviera1069] 16/3/2018 11:06

And again at 976.25

[riviera1069] 16/3/2018 10:32

Bought at 984.08

[riviera1069] 16/3/2018 10:04

Now 998. Are we going to test the 52 week lows.Seems crazy with the ex divi date coming up following pretty decent results the other day

[riviera1069] 16/3/2018 09:53

So Berkeley havent helped here. How low are we going?Looking for a re-entry point. I believe these to be cheap at this level but just trying to get a better entry level.

[speedsgh] 16/3/2018 07:57

Kier looking cheap, says Liberum -

Interim results at construction and property group Kier (KIE) are a little weaker than expected but Liberum says the shares are the cheapest they have been in five years.

Analyst Joe Brent retained his ‘buy’ recommendation and target price of £16.00 on the stock despite the company reporting a net debt increase from £147 million at full-year 2017 to £239 million.

He said the order book remained ‘broadly stable’ but construction revenues were ‘weak due to some delays and margins were restrained by a one-off...hit on the Caribbean’.

‘Current year 2018 enterprise value/earnings of 7.9x is a little above the sector average,’ he said. ‘Current year 2018 dividend yield of 6.6% looks affordable. Comparing Kier’s valuation to the mid-cap price earnings, they are the cheapest that they have been at any time in the last five years.’

The shares fell 3.7% to £10.38 at the time of yesterday.

[hpcg] 15/3/2018 22:40

I think the market is discounting a contraction in UK construction activity of increasing severity in the lead up to real Brexit.

[ed 123] 15/3/2018 16:22

Marksp2011

Net operating assets of the Construction Division are shown as a negative number (minus £142.2 million). How do you calculate a ROCE when the capital is a negative figure?

Construction is partly financed by the suppliers, who are typically on 60 day payment terms, while the main contractor may be on 30 day payment terms from the client organisation. This is behind the negative amount of the operating assets.

So it's possible to get big monetary returns without having to invest much/anything, even at very thin profit margins.

This is neither sinister nor special to Kier. It's the way the sector works.

It does, though, leave contractors especially vulnerable if they get their tendering badly wrong. Note that £240 million of cash sits in Kier's Construction Division (to strengthen the balance sheet). It is right/necessary to hold significant cash, since at some point the payables will have to be paid.

Looking back at the market, it's 1042p again. Is it genuinely cheap or is there rightly some discount being applied by the market? How much reliance should a cautious investor place on these figures? I can't decide.

Has anyone here looked deeper into this?

[kangaroo joe] 15/3/2018 15:57

Pension Deficit £19m! Good progress.

[marksp2011] 15/3/2018 14:58

Interesting to note that they crow about ROCE until the get to Construction then they quote the margin of 1.8%

I wonder why that might be?

1.8% ie significantly lower than tesco makes on tins of beans

Why TF does anyone stay in that business?

[ed 123] 15/3/2018 13:55

Looking at the shareprice, I'd say the market is not fully convinced by Haydn Mursell.

Consensus earnings for this year 117p and next year 133p.

At 1042p in the market, that's a p/e of 8.9, falling to 7.8.

I've looked at today's report, particularly trying to follow the cash flow statement. The volatility of the figures from one period to the next has defeated me. I can't form a clear view as to how things are going.

The report highlights what management would like to stress but behind the headlines what do the figures say? Anyone here looked deeper into this?

(Not holding. The p/e ratio and stated outlook are encouraging but I won't buy unless/until I gain a better understanding.)

[speedsgh] 15/3/2018 09:17

Dividend
The Board is pleased to announce an interim dividend of 23.0p (December 2016: 22.5p), up 2%, reflecting the Board's confidence in the Group's prospects and the intention to increase dividend cover towards 2x by 2020. This will be paid on 18 May 2018 to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 23 March 2018. As an alternative to the cash dividend, shareholders will be offered the option to participate in a Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRIP). The deadline for shareholders to submit their instructions to participate in the DRIP in respect of the interim dividend is 5.30 p.m. (London time) on Friday, 13 April 2018.

[speedsgh] 15/3/2018 09:17

Half Year Report -

Financials
· Revenue of £2,154m, up 8%; underlying operating profit of £60m, up 5%
· Forecast revenue in Construction and Services 100% secured for year to 30 June 2018; more than 65% secured for year to 30 June 2019
· Order book of approximately £9.5bn reflecting strong pipeline conversion in regional building and highways
· Net debt of £239m and expected to be less than 1x EBITDA at 30 June 2018
· Basic earnings per share of 41.0p (December 2016: 39.7p), up 3%
· Pension deficit reduced to £19m
· Interim dividend of 23.0p, up 2%
· On course to deliver double-digit profit growth in 2018 and on track with Vision 2020 goals

Divisional progress
· Property: Strong performance delivering good returns; 23% ROCE
· Residential: Revenue of £166m and ROCE increased to 11%
· Construction: Operating margin of 1.8% includes the final costs relating to the closure of the Hong Kong and Caribbean businesses; £1.1bn of awards during period with £700m secured on frameworks
· Services: Operating margin of 4.9% underpinned by strong contributions from highways and utilities businesses, including McNicholas

Commenting on the results, Haydn Mursell, chief executive, said:
"The Group is performing well. Our £9.5bn Construction and Services order book, combined with our £3.5bn pipeline in the Property and Residential divisions, provides good visibility of work over the medium term.

"The Group's performance reflects the strength of our business model and our financial and operational disciplines. Our portfolio of businesses provides balance and resilience and our approach to risk management is evident in the margin performance we have delivered over many years. We remain on course to deliver double-digit profit growth in 2018 and to achieve our Vision 2020 strategic targets."

[elpirata] 15/3/2018 09:13

interims out, marginal improvement on H2 2016 and 23p divi, but the important bit -

On course to deliver double-digit profit growth in 2018 and on track with Vision 2020 goals