Kesa Electricals Share Discussion Threads

[markt] 20/8/2011 18:49

BTW
when it had recent bounce....
it was essential a bounce made on just 1 day !!
other upday was marginal....

every other day virtually since 134p has been down days !!

In 20 trading days (1 month) it is has lost 34% relative to the price now !
1.5% per day !..or roughly 1.5p/day...but after breaking down thru support at 110p I expect the fall/day to be high till reaches some point between 80-100p then it might take a pause after fast falls....

(I can not see it staying between 100p and 110p for long at all
when break support it is not normal to hang around just under that broken support level imo...but to drop a chunk, bounce and find a new temporary support level...after breaking support at 110p I dont see any shorters being tempted to close their positions, they are hoping for a whoosh drop as other poster mentioned.....at some price 80-95p perhaps they might, for a bounce)

(chance of a whoosh drop !!.....occurring on Monday, Tues or Weds. is 99% imo !, have to wait and see....end of the week % chance of below 95p as 90% imo and below 90p as say 60% and below 80p as maybe 30%.....ie. chance of a 20% fall in 1 week is quite big imo....depends on market news etc

chance of a bounce and being over 110p at end of the week....5% perhaps ..or nil !
====

Just opinions....for reality we have to wait and see.

DYOR NAG

[markt] 20/8/2011 18:33

and...(noting I'm not a chart expert)....
on the charts....in last 4 or 5 days....it has opened lower than it closed the day before !! negative signal imo

and on last 2 days.....there is a wick below the candle body and very little above....showing it was quite happy to go lower during the trading day....no buyers were there to stop it...and that is after falling approx. 10p or 10 % !!
ie. no big buyers buying 'cause they think it is dirt cheap....none...

and big volume on Thursday...6M....that was breaking support day imo...110p.

On Monday and Tuesday....depends a lot I guess on what the FTSE does....since large cap. so computer trading linked to FTSE index...
but also any other news from retail sector.....or TV sales area...or any -ve French or UK retail sales...


or maybe a broker will issue a downgrade....that would really cut the share price...

[markt] 20/8/2011 18:17

looking at the chart....
chance of a bounce...

well....from 134p to 101p it has been steaming downwards..in last trading days..fast...virtually every day down...except 1 small bounce averaged price went up maybe 5p over a few days...super weak.......very weak..

interesting ...in 2008 it went from 160p to 60p in about a straight line !!
I think the environment and atmosphere is similar....people are getting out of retail shares...

and as you mentioned....it is breaking support..or has already...everyone can see....
support was around 110p...already smashed thru it imo.....5p/day falls....that is big...more to come imo
so anyone with a long term interest in the share will take a step back imo.....
or any trader buying will put in tight stop loss positions...which will all trigger if they get hit.....causing sharp fall as you say...

Any chance that after breaking support in a downward crash from 134p that it will now spring up back thru support (now resistance) and stay happily above that price....naw, not in my view.....otherwise it would not have been steaming down so fast from 134p...virtually everyday was down...

[bobsidian] 19/8/2011 18:58

I think you are looking for the survivors in the retail sector. KESA may - and I do stress may - be one. KESA is all about the strength of its Darty operations and little about the UK operations. The UK operations contribute 30% of total sales but less than nothing to overall profitability.

But at this price KESA looks tempting at least for a near term bounce. The danger comes if the £1 level breaks and down may whoosh the share price to go in search of its 2008 lows. Given what is erupting around Europe not necessarily a share to be holding on release of its Q1 IMS on 15 September.

You do have to wonder at what Knight Vinke are doing upping their stake to 20%.

[markt] 19/8/2011 09:11

....another one bites the dust....and another gone another gone....another one bites the dust....

[markt] 18/8/2011 13:39

good chance we could be calling "timber" on this today !!
also a chance it might bounce....

in any case.....not a share to be long on in my view....due to the risk of price collapse....

and if doesnt happen today....not long to wait imo....
nothing g'teed of course....but the chance of KESA saying that whole retailer sector is having a bad time in UK and Spain and Italy (where KESA also operate) but that they have done fantastic in last 3 weeks is nil imo

[markt] 18/8/2011 13:20

No other posters out there ?

....I could outline why KESA news future is not good..and what I see the future news and accounts to be...but no point in me posting if no one to read it !

[markt] 18/8/2011 11:28

If KESA breaks down thru current price region on the chart then it has no support....gonna happen imo....just a question of time....could be today with markets being very weak ...and support levels for recent bounce for FTSE/DJIA have been broken/smashed....

[markt] 18/8/2011 11:26

"What leaps out is that consumers are unwilling to spend on big ticket items - household goods are down 4.1% on the year," she added.

DELL
dropped forecast future sales growth from 5-9% to 1-5% !!
That is what I call a fall in future expected sales !!

Not good for KESA.

[spob] 22/6/2011 12:31

down she goes

love it

pump it up and pull it back

easy money

[spencerfrater] 15/5/2011 20:00

I've got divergences of RSI, Momentum and MACD histogram over the last week. And on the 9th there was a long upwards tail which hasn't baan confirmed indicating a reversal. It maybe best to take profits now before we get trapped by the shorting spivs. Any thoughts?

[m.t.glass] 11/5/2011 16:13

Tony - Sounds more like someone wanted to bump up the price - pulling together rumours - ahead of getting out or shorting into the t/s ;o)

[tonysss13] 09/5/2011 08:47

DJ MARKET TALK: Kesa Rises On Talk Of Interest From PAI


0730 GMT [Dow Jones] Kesa Electricals (KESA.LN) up 4.4% at 143.1p, after jumping over 7% in opening trade, on market talk private equity group PAI Partners is considering a bid for the company, a London-based analyst says. The group will update on fourth quarter trading Thursday. PAI was not immediately available for comment. Kesa has been struggling of late, and warned on FY profits in January. Activist investor Knight Vinke has also been building a stake in the company. ([e-mail])

[prokartace] 09/5/2011 08:05

And now today?

[nofool] 07/5/2011 17:51

So why has it risen 20% since??

[mechanical trader] 07/4/2011 08:39

A big increase in stock on loan (proxy for shorting)over the last week or so. Doesnt look very good for KESA.

[mechanical trader] 04/4/2011 14:00

Broker J P Morgan slaps a SELL recomendation on KESA............

Kesa Electricals
FTSE 250
Consumer, Cyclical
Underweight
84
119.7
-29.8%
JPMorgan

Target 84p downside 29.8%.

[bobsidian] 31/3/2011 17:51

In spite of the destruction in the share price of DXNS interesting to see the outperformance of KESA.

This share certainly has some resilience. Each time it looks to be about to break down to test the £1.00 level up it pops to the top of its temporary trading range.

[spob] 22/2/2011 09:24

Knight Vinke stake building

[spob] 24/1/2011 13:36

nice quiet thread here

just the way i like it :0)

[spob] 19/1/2011 14:33

from FT Alphaville markets live today


NH back to the retailers
NH some pretty dismal figures from Kesa today
Kesa Electricals Plc (KESA:LSE): Last: 137.30, down 13.5 (-8.95%), High: 142.50, Low: 136.90, Volume: 4.91m
BE Comet's the problem, right?
NH yes
NH France was OK
NH but Comet dragged them down
NH results will be toward the low end of expectations
NH not sure what the future is for Comet
NH does it have one?
BE Too expensive to close, apparently.
NH really
NH can't they just walk away
NH hand the keys back
NH do a pre pack
NH relist in France
BE Is it that easy? The sellside are not convinced.
NH right let's have a look at the Comet numbers
NH (urgeview I would have spread it around a bit and wouldn't have had it all in cash. Half would have been put in GKP for a start)
NH Kesa (Add recommendation under review): A shock today that Kesa has brought forward its Q3 statement from next month and issued a profit warning, based on very poor trading at Comet in the UK and also in Spain. The activist shareholder Knight Vinke, with an 11% stake, will not be pleased, despite the strong balance sheet and solid trading in France. The statement that UK trading has softened significantly since the VAT rise on Jan 4th (despite a soft comp that week vs snow a year ago...) will also spook the market about the outlook for other big-ticket retailers, including Dixons (Neutral) and on the read-through we reiterate our Reduce view on Home Retail (210p target). We have our 175p target on Kesa under review...The conf call at 7.45am focused on store downsizing and other cost reduction plans for Comet, but it is disappointing that the business will be in a small loss for the year


NH that was from Nick Bubb
NH and this is from the company
NH who are blaming snow
NH obviously
NH Comet delivered record trading from Boxing Day through to the New Year weekend, but this strong performance failed to offset the weaker sales seen early in December due to competitive trading and adverse weather conditions. Overall revenue for the period declined by 6.5 per cent in local currency and by 7.3 per cent on a like-for-like basis. Gross margin declined by c.140bps reflecting the highly promotional nature of the market over the period. Web-generated sales grew by only 3 per cent, reflecting some disruption during the introduction of the new software platform in November. Since the introduction of the VAT increase on 4 January we have so far seen sales trends soften. In the light of these factors we are now anticipating that Comet will deliver a small retail loss for the year.
BE So it looks pretty obvious that Comet's losing market share.
NH Hang on
NH Web-generated sales grew by only 3 per cent, reflecting some disruption during the introduction of the new software platform in November.
NH didn't that hit Dixons too
NH are they using the same software?
BE Hm. That is curious.
BE Why did both major retailers decide to refresh their websites in November?
BE And they both made a bork of it?
NH hmm
NH sounds very odd
NH anyway
NH more to say on this
NH or not
BE Hang on – quick comment from Merrill then let's push on.
BE The earnings downgrades that we have put through for both Kesa and its
competitor Dixons recently continue to support our negative view on the
electricals sector and highlight that the structural pressures on electrical retailing
(overspacing, online penetration), particularly in the UK, are increasing. Having
said that, we are aware of the strategic value of Kesa with Darty France
accounting for an estimated c.130% of the group's profits this year, and that
Kesa's attractive net cash position and c.€300mn of real estate make it screen
well on LBO models. However we think this risk is already partly reflected in our
revised PO of 150p (based on a SOTP), implying a 12.1x cal.11e P/E, a premium
of 20% to the UK General Retail sector.
BE Interesting figure that. Darty provides 130% of the group profit.
NH yes
NH very

[spob] 19/1/2011 14:23

Kesa warns of losses at UK chain

By Damian Wilkinson

FT

Published: January 19 2011 10:35 | Last updated: January 19 2011 10:35

Shares in Kesa Electricals fell 6 per cent on Wednesday after it warned that profits would be at the lower end of expectations due to weaker sales at Comet, its UK chain, over the crucial Christmas trading period.

The retailer said that the pre-Christmas snowfall in the UK and continental Europe during its key trading period, knocked at least 2 per cent off sales.

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It said that during the festive period sales at Comet had fallen 7.3 per cent on a like-for-like basis due to the weather and competitive trading. It added that in spite of record sales from Boxing Day through to the new year weekend, the VAT increase on January 4 had further hit turnover. Gross margins dipped by 140 basis points.

Kesa now expects to report a full-year retail loss for Comet and cautioned overall group profits for the period to April 30 were set to come in at the lower end of forecasts.

The poor performance in the UK was mirrored in Kesa's overseas markets, which saw like-for-like sales drop 8.8 per cent, leaving group sales down 4 per cent despite more resilient trading at Darty France.

Group online sales increased by 11 per cent but rose by only 3 per cent at Comet because of disruption caused during the introduction of a new software platform in November.

The company also said it had agreed a new five-year revolving credit facility of €455m, which would reduce interest payments by about €500,000 in the current financial year, and by about €3m in subsequent years.

Thierry Falque-Pierrotin, chief executive, said: "We remain confident in our strategy and committed to our plans to implement the Darty concept in all our markets and we have in place a number of additional measures to improve revenue and reduce costs."

The news sent Kesa's shares down 8.8p to 142p with analysts at Altium Securities reducing their annual pre-tax forecasts from €111m to €96m.