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Keras Res Share Discussion Threads
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|AIM is not a fair playing field. The winners in the end are the MM.
Volume is tiny, its the MM playing their usual stuff. Anymore big sell and the share price will drop, that is when you should buy. Problem we PI don't have access to is what the MM have, buyer and seller amounts.
So its still a gamble getting it right.|
|What's going on? They take it down 10% when there are hardly any sells. Everybody piles in to take advantage of the huge drop and then finally a big sell shows up at just under what everyone has just bought for. Seems like a totally orchestrated drop to me to get buys to cover the big sell - is this kind of thing allowed? Hardly makes it a fair playing field surely.|
|Fag packet calculation suggest cash cost $2/MTU, price $3.35. 250,000tn per annum is about 25m MTU of concentrate or about $33.75m gross profit pa. That's not small for a £7.5m company. Hundreds of millions of $ for 2Mt+ of concetrate at Nayega. Lets hope they can resolve the issues there and move this forward, its certainly not in the price here and nor should it be until they get that mining licence. Ferromanganese production changes the ball game, but that should be funded on the back of phase 1 which from memory was to cost $10-12m to get into production.
Yeah true, but that's the highest upside. But its certainly economic given the price of pure Mn. KRS as you suggest won't be producing pure Mn, it'll be 38% concentrate initially from 17.1% ore, so the first 2Mt should be low cost to get to 38% concetrate. Then phase two was to produce ferromanganese alloy which is even more economic (from memory its somewhere around $1000/tn or $100/MTU. So the $1.74/kg is a guide only, as is the $2 costs per MTU. Even at that Nayega has about 1.4Mt of "pure Mn" or about 2Mt of 38% concentrate if they don't move to phase 2. If they move to alloy production they'll lose some Mn in the tailings etc. But the economics will be transformed. No matter how you look at it costs are likely to be in the stated range for surface ore and the latest I could find for 38% Mn concentrate is the following:
"Low grade manganese ore prices edged lower on Friday August 30 while high grade prices showed signs of strengthening as Chinese consumers reported higher offers and concluded prices.
Metal Bulletin’s index price for 38% manganese ore fob Port Elizabeth fell 2 cents week-on-week to $3.35 per dmtu. Metal Bulletin’s index price for 44% manganese ore cif Tianjin rose 5 cents to $5.15 per dmtu.
South African Ferromanganese looks to be on a run:
But the ferromanganese is where the higher upside comes from the high grade resource and of course the smelting costs etc come in. So the average KRS could acheive for Nayega will be somewhere between the Manganese price and the concentrate price depending on moving to phase 2. Either way this asset has material upside to KRS even at recent prices, and they're rising this year too as the count suggested.
Not sure it is quite that simple as I think you will find those are DMTUs for the ore which is not pure Mn whereas price per KG is for pure product post smelting, for which there is a charge. Also fob does not include shipping costs you need CIF for that and a destination.|
From the KRS website:
"The majority of the Phase 1 Definitive Feasibility Study has been completed at Nayega to develop the initial open-pit, 250,000tpa manganese operation. The mine design, schedules and tailings dam design have been completed based on cash operating costs of US$2/Dry Metric Tonne Unit ('DMTU') FOB."
You'll find that its $2 cost per MTU, current Price of Mn per MTU is $17.40 or $1.74/Kg from the chart you provided. Meaning a cash margin of $15.40 per MTU to KRS at current Mn prices, if they can resolve these remaining issues, whatever they are, then Togo is still a game changer and would significantly impact on the listing price in Oz. Togo is the reason I bought KRS between 0.35-0.5p.
1 MTU = 10kg
Togo licence isn't a distraction, its several hundred million dollars of pretty much at surface high grade Mn.
|Mn price still pretty depressed but showing signs of slow recovery:
We need over $2 / Kg to be profitable in Togo, currently at $1.74
At the moment Togo would be more of a distraction than a real benefit, however it might help the ASX listing.|
|...how is the price of Mn doing these days?...I believe its doing very well?|
the count of monte_cristo
Interesting, that would catch the market with its trousers down if they got the long awaited mining licence. It would certainly help to shore up the listing price for Oz in addition to the gold. It may not be long before we get some results from the expo drilling going on here. They need these results in and assayed etc before they do the resource drilling programme early next year. Shouldn't take that long to do 600m total over various shallow targets.
|The granting of the Togo licence should really get this share moving I would think. Red Rock Resources had a RNS out yesterday about their anticipated payout from Jupiter mines. Jupiter owns 49.9% of a manganese mine and they're making a huge profit at the mo, so much so that they are set to distribute us$55m to shareholders. If DR can get Togo up and running in the timescales that have been mentioned in the past we could be well in the money.|
|DR is in Togo next week, I emailed him to ask a couple of questions. It would be positive if something may come out of this visit to Togo...|
the count of monte_cristo
|Any news on POW moving into production? Anyone|
|Thanks for posting Cpap man. All good stuff.|
|Great to see these guys active and drilling again.
|Just loaded up some more KRS at sub 59...
locked away for the medium term...
I will continue to buy if they fall further...
More than enough cash at present and of course I realise there will be a placing as part of the Ozzie listing but if Dave is right, this should be at above the current share price ..
Remember, we raised £1.25m at 1.1p in April and only a tiny setback in the 3rd Quarter Report caused a 45% fall in the SP, which is ridiculous....
As Dave said last Thursday...
"The final milling campaign is now underway with final gold payment is expected within two weeks. Based on grade control estimates and initial mill figures, a maiden operating profit is forecast."
Now what will that do to the share price ..!?|
|Always worried about tribute mining - if it were that good they'd have done it themselves imho|
|I presumed they would raise funds when they list on the ASX?|
|Unfortunately I believe a placing is coming here soon as not enough revenue coming in :-( the future sounds good but it's going to take a while imo.|