Just Share Discussion Threads

[18bt] 11/4/2024 14:28

xd the 1.5p today

[kilobyte2] 11/4/2024 14:28

Ex-divi today: 1.50p

[clive7878] 11/4/2024 13:20

Share price coming off the boil - 102p

[clive7878] 11/4/2024 10:39

A report said that dementure is set to treble in the UK by the year 2050. it was also revealed that Anti-depressants and Anti-parkinson pills also increases the risk.
Question is do some Western Medicines slowly kill the brain cells off, but whilst keeping people alive.

[1jat] 09/4/2024 19:06

Always useful to consider what could shock the share price downwards.

Market sensitivities to capital are set out in the annual report / SFCR - they have reduced exposure to LTMs over the last few years = not that I was particularly concerned about it…UK house prices have been very resilient and the demographics are positive. We cant predict market crashes so we have to live with these risks and hope the Firms Risk Management is robust.

What non- financial shocks could there be?
Regulatory capital requirement changes are top of my list. Private Credit is my main area of concern…the annuity insurers typically have 45-50% in unlisted assets.
Worth watching the PRA consultations and Dear CEO letters to see what may be coming.
A step change in longevity expectations caused by a cure for cancer / heart disease….this is not really a huge concern as the NHS /care sector does not have the cash to keep old people alive without regard to the costs. I hold some pharma funds/stocks as a hedge.

[18bt] 08/4/2024 07:38

Covered extensively by Mr Bearbull in last week’s IC. He has bought and has a good case available on IC site.

[1jat] 07/4/2024 15:56

Really pleased with the bounce in the share price following the 2023 results.
I think there will be steady gains if sales volume and more importantly margin can be replicated (sales should be for the next decade, margin may erode with increased competition).

[jeff h] 04/4/2024 14:10

Another sizeable deal for Just:-

[clive7878] 03/4/2024 22:26

Investors taking advantage of the price rise today - majority sells.
Price may tread water for a while now.

[1jat] 25/3/2024 14:47

It does take some time for analysts to update their views and fund managers to decide what to do (as opposed to traders).
Hopefully there will be wider and deeper institutional investment.

[clive7878] 24/3/2024 10:45

I did think that the share price would go a little flat after the recent rise,
but Friday it is still motoring. Investors seem to have now woken up to Just Group,
so who knows what is to follow.

[1jat] 20/3/2024 22:21

JPM - That is more like it….+25p on the target price…which aligns well with the expected value added this year.
Whether it can close the 35p gap as well depends on sentiment but I expect 110 for the HY and 125 with the 2024 FY results.
Steady as she goes.

[clive7878] 20/3/2024 18:06

Just Group Plc. (JUST:LN) PT Raised to GBP1.60 at JPMorgan
March 20, 2024
JPMorgan analyst Farooq Hanif raised the price target on Just Group Plc. (JUST:LN) to GBP1.60 (from GBP1.35) while maintaining a Overweight rating...

[clive7878] 18/3/2024 22:59

After the recent rise we could expect the share price to flatten out for a while,
until further news comes out, is my feeling in the immediate term.

[1jat] 18/3/2024 15:52

The DB updates today did not really change anything except the average….as they kept slightly ahead of recent market movements across several insurers.

As said many times by CJAC and others the PE ratio is not helpful for insurance companies whose free cash flow depends on how its long term assumptions are playing out.

Capital coverage, free cash flow from operations and increasingly the CSM as a future store of value are the numbers to watch. Looking at NBP (CSM additions) then Just got 30% of its share price added to the CSM….if it adds more than 8% of opening CSM then it is likely the company is growing and future profits and cashflows will grow.

[18bt] 18/3/2024 09:13

Deutsche Bank raises Just Group price target to 105 (90) pence - 'hold'

[clive7878] 17/3/2024 22:02

Sale of 1.2m at close. Bigger trades appear to come in at close of play.
In the case of Friday - mostly sells.

I.C. quotes pe of 9 - lowering for coming year.
So inspiring forecast to come.

[1jat] 14/3/2024 14:21

They have to do a lot of deals like this to get to £3bn.
Fortunately they have made the smaller deal space their own and are able to service standard quotations regularly to trustees…..
The larger schemes generally come with more complications so require a lot more in the way of bespoke terms and sometimes administration system changes to support the scheme……this are of the market is proving to be Just’s sweet spot….once the business is fully on the books it does not matter where it came from…so this is good business.

[salver2] 14/3/2024 12:17

Another 37 million one today - they are coming thick and fast

[clive7878] 14/3/2024 11:14

18BT good spot - We are motoring today.

[18bt] 13/3/2024 12:56

A decent sized BPA deal:

[clive7878] 11/3/2024 10:49

Two good and encouraging posts which has a good chance of materialising in the future.

The interest in trading Just Group has exploded since results.

[18bt] 11/3/2024 06:50

From FT Weekend: Headline UK’s pension buyout boom leaves insurance investors wanting more

Worth a read, but behind a paywall. Conclusion is roughly

Just Group’s low valuation has reflected unambitious targets for ROE, So beating the new, over-12 per cent target sent the shares up 13 per cent. But needs to earn the trust of the market by sustainable earnings growth. Just Group will need to to find sufficient suitable investment providing good returns to match the supply of bulk deals.

[1jat] 10/3/2024 11:14

Just turning this around a bit…..the larger insurers typically pay out 50-70% of their earnings in dividends.
If Just earns 30p sustainably for the next few years until it starts to look like the other insurers, a 20p dividend at 8% would lead to a share price of 250p. The Shareholder NAV would need to be 300p and would take about 6-7 years to get there which is near the end of Transitional Measures….
This does not appear implausible but requires consistent delivery as the market will continue to evolve.

I anticipate annual share price increases around 20p pa for the next few years plus the currently small dividend rising at 15-20% pa.

That is currently a 20% investment return, reducing to the teens as the company grows.

[clive7878] 09/3/2024 21:00

L&G is paying 9% dividend.but then Just is on a pe of 3, so there could well be more mileage in the share price of Just to come, maybe next week even.