Just Eat Share Discussion Threads

[asagi] 11/11/2015 12:55

interesting to pop over to an app store and search for takeaways with their own apps. My short is really hurting me but the momentum for takeaways to get their owns apps is perhaps even stronger.

The problem is, they are having mixed results successfully moving their customer base over to their own app - although some are clearly doing it well.

Asagi (short JE.)

[hpcg] 05/11/2015 01:46

Naos - does the behaviour you are describing match reality?

1. Most likely people have their favourite Indian, Chinese, Pizza etc
2. How many people browse anything to decide what to eat that evening? That is what people might do for a restaurant, but not a takeaway.
3. JE isn't priced to be one of many, it is priced for near exclusive access to the market.
4. Installing and using apps is how the world increasingly works. The concept of too many apps is really out of touch I think.

None of which says anything about the share price in the immediate future as it bears no relation to any conventional metric. However we already know from the announcement that profits will be behind expectations as it was not mentioned at all.

[berkhath] 04/11/2015 23:05

Asagi you must have been suffering with prices going up and up. Sorry your short position is draining you.

[naos] 04/11/2015 10:49

Asagi,

The takeaway market is huge and growing, more lazy people means less cooking and more takeaway orders, so there's room for several players here.

On takeaway's using their own apps that you and hpcg mention, it's a possibility. But just like rightmove/zoopla, people prefer going to one site/using one app, than having to go to multiple web sites/use multiple apps.

Perhaps small chains may get their own apps and people who have a favourite takeaway will likely go directly to that takeway. But the driver of business is being able to glance through multiple takeaways and selecting the one you want on the same site.*

The danger as I see it (and I have direct experience..) is if something goes wrong with an order, (mine was three hours late two weeks ago..) who gets the blame? JE were excellent and refunded me straight away but my friend had a different take on things, quote, "I'll never use that site again." I explained to him it wasn't JE's fault, but he was adamant.

* The other obvious danger for JE is takeaways that are on the net can get swamped with orders all at the same time and can't cope. But I see "the law of the jungle" playing a role here. Those restaurants that can cope will survive and flourish and the weaker ones will go out of business.

[philo124] 04/11/2015 10:24

Canaccord target 575p from 570p.

[llef] 04/11/2015 08:01

new competition here?



Hussain is now launching Kukd.com, a website for takeawy orders. He has 3,000 restaurants signed up and aims to have 10,000 within a year.

He has market leader Just Eat in his sights and says his model will be more attractive to businesses because Kukd.com’s model is capped at £50 a week while Just Eat takes 20% of orders.

hxxp://www.walesonline.co.uk/business/business-news/man-turned-six-boxes-prawns-10357627

[bamboo2] 04/11/2015 00:35

eod close above 445 could target ath.

[hpcg] 03/11/2015 22:45

The just eat app is amateur; looks like it was programmed by a 5 year old. Domino Pizza's own app creams JE in every metric and you know the chains have to go in that direction. That includes small local chains, given just how cheap an app is to develop using off the shelf frameworks.

[asagi] 03/11/2015 11:24

There are other aggregators Naos, though I accept that the first and biggest will be the 800 pound gorilla.

What you have to watch however is the move AWAY from aggregators i.e. own apps.

-- edit my point is that if you believe that takeaway owners will move to their owns apps, Just Eat's business model is finished.

Asagi (short JE.)

[naos] 03/11/2015 10:34

Asagi, fair points, but I disagree.

They're buying up companies to strengthen their position in markets where they're already strong and investing in mobile and yes, no doubt a lot of dosh is going to advertising.

They are getting as big as they can as fast as they can for one simple reason, to be a takeover target. I expect google, amazon, who knows, to swoop in within the 3-5 years. So, Just Eat have to redirect a lot of their dosh into technology and adverts to cement their market position.

Takeaways that have already bought Just Eat's terminals are unlikely to then purchase a competitor's. Who's first, wins.

You'll have plenty of shorting opportunities, I expect this share to motor back up to £5, then probably drop again for a while. BUt long term, I don't see this as a short.

[philo124] 03/11/2015 10:12

Topped up on the dip; sipp.

[asagi] 03/11/2015 09:56

The increase in revenue guidance from £230m to £240m is modest.

If this were a toll booth, that should have flowed through to EBITA - it isn't.

"increased investment in areas such as improving the customer experience, bringing greater choice to our consumers and driving the channel shift to mobile."

this is all described as 'investment'. Surely much of it is plain old advertising cost ('I need a Balti!'). Maybe the market is concerned that management are trying to soft soap them.

Asagi (short JE.)

[naos] 03/11/2015 09:47

Increased my stake in this and bought more on the dip. There are not many shares with such a clear upward path as this. Just to copy the last paragraph from today's results:

"JUST EAT delivered a strong quarter of organic order growth. Our strategy of investing in technology and marketing to drive growth has delivered orders ahead of management expectations with an acceleration in order momentum. In the context of this performance, we are raising our revenue guidance for the full year. I would like to thank the whole JUST EAT team for their hard work and commitment in delivering these excellent results."

That'll do for me!

As was said in Shares Magazine last year, this is what Warren Buffet terms a "toll booth" share. Just Eat mans the booth and lets someone else do the work and collects a slice of their takings for nothing.

I'll let go of these shares when hell freezes over.

[asagi] 03/11/2015 08:16

Increased revenue guidance. EBITDA is unchanged. (as a short) I'm disappointed that the company got back to increasing growth, although only slightly.

The UK mobile numbers suggest that there isn't much more growth to come from that channel.

Shares now off.

Asagi (short JE.)

[izztre] 03/11/2015 08:12

Thought this would go up more at the open! Strong order update

[philo124] 03/11/2015 07:10

Pretty good update. increased guidance.

[philo124] 30/10/2015 19:16

On board today. results next week.

[asagi] 27/10/2015 15:15

dropped in very short order so I would suggest sloppy selling, nothing more.

Asagi (short JE.)

[izztre] 27/10/2015 13:28

Why the sudden fall today?

[cabreado] 30/9/2015 19:26

Citigroup and Goldman Sachs reiterate buy with target 550 and 570 respectively.

[cabreado] 25/9/2015 19:49

say no more!!! Time to buy - next stop 450p

[asagi] 02/9/2015 14:10

bit pressed for time but if you want to get a fuller picture of the competitive landscape, take a look at kukd. Their website claims that they are signing up 150 outlets at week.

The cynic in me suggest that some of them will be multiples.

However, many look ready-to-go. Crucially, this seems to be a solution to the industry, from within the industry.

Asagi (short JE.)

[asagi] 27/8/2015 13:19

Possibility of future amazon competition raised by TheDrum:

Amazon has been trialling a takeaway delivery in the US as it looks to take a share of the burgeoning market established by the likes of GrubHub in the US and Just Eat, plus Deliveroo in the UK.

www.thedrum.com/news/2015/08/26/amazon-s-fast-food-trials-could-spell-trouble-just-eat-and-hungry-house

but here's an offer if you want a takeaway this week:

Treat yourself to a night off this week with a free takeaway from JUST EAT when you register with cashback website Quidco.

The website is offering new members a free £10 meal of their choice, plus 5% cashback on top, when they order online at the food-to-go service.



kinda suggests that Quidco and JustEat are both working in tandem to bring in new users. Question is, how will they split the bill?

Asagi (short JE.)

[hpcg] 26/8/2015 17:03

hmm, I missed the spike, or rather assumed it had legs a bit higher. I can envisage 400 as resistance now, but it would be nice to time some sells when it kisses the ceiling.