Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 04/1/2017 17:53

QP - this mandate to buy back shares when at a certain discount to Nav is the same every year and similar to other JP Morgan trusts.

Kurin saying he expects Russia to grow by 3% in 2019 and 4% in 2020.

[quepassa] 04/1/2017 16:44

Hi galeforce,

good info.

can you please say if that is a new mandate or an existing one ?

do you know where I can readily find the relevant announcement or do you perhaps kindly have a link?

Thanks.

QP

[galeforce1] 04/1/2017 16:35

A mandate to narrow the discount to NAV by buying up to 20% of JRS stock sounds like very good news.

The discount has been narrowing, but with current assets of 631 to the mid-price at 550 it's still around 13%.

With this level of buy-back the discount should be no more than 5% by the end of this year.

[luckymouse] 03/1/2017 22:18

Zooom (or for russian speakers - зуyy 84;)

I will put my granny on ebay if it doesn't hit that mark

[arja] 03/1/2017 21:53

rare for an investment trust to trade at less than 15% discount to NAV . Nice looking chart I must say and more in this one .

[m4ybe] 02/1/2017 05:55

Also 15% below NAV, I suspect at the top we'll be much closer to NAV.

[quepassa] 02/1/2017 04:37

Happy New Year, Loganair.

And I echo others' thanks and gratitude for all your efforts and fascinating posts over 2016 on this and other boards.

The seeming warmth between Putin and Trump is both jarring and hard to ignore. The foundations are being well laid for a strong rehabilitation of Russia in the global markets which will boost Russia's economy and trade alongside surging commodity prices.

Fully concur that Russia looks cheap.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[galeforce1] 01/1/2017 17:56

Loganair - thanks for all your very interesting posts in 2016. It's encouraging that you feel things continue to look good for 2017. I would definitely agree with that. Even after a partial recovery in 2016 the Russian stock market is still one of the cheapest in the world and the positive, business-oriented approach of the Trump administration to Russia is encouraging. I think JRS is now my biggest holding.

[loganair] 01/1/2017 16:27

How is JRS looking for 2017?

Most the indicators are very positive.

Russian economy is expected to grow by around 1%.

Russia's budget is based on a 2017 oil price of $40 per bbl when the current price is $55.

The rouble is expected to strengthen from $61 to $55 by the end of the first quarter of 2017. As. JRS is priced in Sterling one may expect n equivalent 10% or 50p on the JRS share price.

Germany imported a record amount of gas from Russia during 2016. Germany say they will be increasing the amount of gas they import from Russia by 5% year on year for the next 10 years to grow it's assets in Germany.
.

All in all I can see JRS share price reaching 650p to 700p by the end of 2017.
Two of the top men in Trump 's administration are pro Russia, therefore I expect an easing of sanctions

Rosneft (JRS 4th Largest Investment) a few days ago set up Rosneft Deutschland

[loganair] 21/12/2016 17:52

Russia adds 31 tonnes of gold to reserves in November - which is more gold than around the 20 tons Russia mines a month.


“It is clearly taking advantage of the lower gold price to do so, especially since the strong Russian ruble makes gold even cheaper in local currency. In recent months, the gold purchases of the Russian central bank have presumably put the brakes on the gold price slide,” said Commerzbank.

[loganair] 21/12/2016 16:15

Washington may ease its sanctions against Moscow in 2017, according to analysts.

Donald Trump’s election is expected to bring fundamental changes in US foreign policy. The president-elect has given no details on how he is going to rebuild relations with Russia.

“It’s still a toss-up whether the US will ease sanctions quickly, with the European Union lagging, but the direction of travel is toward easier sanctions or less enforcement, which could reduce financing costs,” said Rachel Ziemba, the head of emerging markets at 4CAST-RGE in New York.

“If the US eases sanctions, it won’t be possible to achieve a consensus among EU member states to keep their sanctions regime in place as currently formulated,” said Charles Movit, an economist at IHS Markit in Washington.

The median estimate is that should there be a relief it will boost Russia’s economic growth by 0.2 percent next year and 0.5 percent in 2018.

The ruble may gain as much as 10 percent on sanctions relief.

[loganair] 20/12/2016 16:14

Dynamics of retail trade was worse than market expectations. Yesterday, Rosstat published key economic indicators for November. Falling retail trade slowed - to 4.1% (year on year), compared with October, when it was 4.2%. The result was worse than market expectations. For example, Bloomberg consensus forecast was equal to minus 3.5%, Interfax - minus 3.3%. At the end of 11 months. 2016 retail sales in Russia decreased by 5.1%.

[loganair] 19/12/2016 17:39

The Board of Directors of the Central Bank has kept its key rate on Friday at the level of 10% as expected. However, the tone of the final comments became, in our opinion, a little bit tougher. Now, the regulator said that it would consider the possibility of a rate cut in the first half of 2017, whereas after the September meeting we noted that the bank saw the possibility of reducing twice.

At the same time the Bank viewed the risk that inflation will not slow down to 4% target by the end of next year, a little weak, but it should allow the bank to mitigate the monetary policy. We believe that against the backdrop of slowing inflation, the Central Bank will lower its key rate in 2017 by 100-125 bp.

[loganair] 19/12/2016 17:34

Credit growth could reach 5-7%. Yesterday Sberbank management (JRS Largest Investment) has held a meeting with analysts, during which they presented the forecasts for 2017. Overall the sector management expects a 5-7 percent increase in both corporate and retail lending, 6-8 per cent growth corporate deposits and 7-9 per cent growth in deposits in the retail segment. Indicators of the Savings Bank should be at the sector level in all segments, except for retail lending, where it may show a slight advance.

In the new renditions unsecured personal loans can be made even with a mortgage (although the mortgage portfolio due to its length will continue to grow faster). The Bank expects stable margin year by year; Management lays a decrease in return on assets of about 1 percentage point, but this will be offset by lower interest rates on new deposits, stable or strengthen the ruble, as well as the balance of de-dollarization.

Target price increased by 22%. Taking into account the management projections for 2017, presented during yesterday's meeting with analysts, the market has increased its estimate of net profit of Sberbank in the next year by 12% to 587 billion rubles. The forecast return on equity increased to 17% and 19% (corresponds to the upper boundary of the assessment of management). They have also adjusted their forecasts for the current year, given the high profitability for RAS continuing in recent months, and now expect ROAE at 19.5% against 18% previously.

In addition, the market has extended for one year time horizon, by 1 percentage point and have reduced the market risk premium, as well as to the model laid out by the last macroeconomic forecast. As a result, the target share price rose by 22% to $ 3.3. Per common share (up to $ 2.3. Per preferred) and maintaining a market BUY recomendation.

[loganair] 19/12/2016 17:27

The economic situation remains difficult. After an unsuccessful September dynamics of key macroeconomic indicators in October has not shown clear signs of improvement. Thus, industrial production fell by 0.2% year on year, after falling 0.8% in September due to a tangible downturn in the manufacturing sector. The construction sector declined by only 0.8% yoy in October, after falling 6.8% a month earlier. The growth in agriculture accelerated to 2.4% yoy from 1.7% for September.

At the same time the decline in retail trade and services sectors increased against the background of the accelerated fall in real disposable income, and unemployment began to rise after six months of continuous decline.

Will have to see what November and December bring?

[loganair] 19/12/2016 16:51

“Russia’s economy will end the year 2016 with a 0.6-0.8% decline, and in 2017, according to different estimates, a 1% growth will be ensured,” said Gagik Makaryan.

[loganair] 19/12/2016 16:51

“Russia’s economy will end the year 2016 with a 0.6-0.8% decline, and in 2017, according to different estimates, a 1% growth will be ensured,” said Gagik Makaryan.

[luckymouse] 19/12/2016 00:47

So an oil & sanction easing play..

[loganair] 16/12/2016 17:33

Higher oil prices and signs incoming US President Donald Trump wants better relations between Washington and Moscow has wet the appetite of investors for Russian equities.

In recent weeks, investors have poured the most cash into Russian funds in five years.

Russian stock funds saw record inflows of $451 million in the week to December 14, with mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETF) invested in Russian bonds seeing their largest inflows since February 2015.

Recovery in crude prices following last month's OPEC deal has had a positive effect on ETFs and mutual funds, some of which saw asset values rise by a third since the end of November.

“The valuation was extremely attractive, and the recovery of oil is very supportive of not just the equity market but of Russia politically. When oil was sliding, people were not just concerned about equities but about stability there,” said Vinay Pande, head of short-term investment opportunities at UBS Wealth Management.

Besides soaring oil prices which are up 16 percent since the OPEC deal, a potential thaw in relations between the Kremlin and the incoming Trump administration is seen by analysts as one of the drivers for investing.

“There is a potential budding friendship between our two countries. Investors have extrapolated that we are going to have a more friendly relationship with Russia,” said Dave Mazza, head of ETF and mutual fund research at State Street Global Advisors.

[loganair] 16/12/2016 17:32

Higher oil prices and signs incoming US President Donald Trump wants better relations between Washington and Moscow has wet the appetite of investors for Russian equities.

In recent weeks, investors have poured the most cash into Russian funds in five years.

Russian stock funds saw record inflows of $451 million in the week to December 14, with mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETF) invested in Russian bonds seeing their largest inflows since February 2015.

Recovery in crude prices following last month's OPEC deal has had a positive effect on ETFs and mutual funds, some of which saw asset values rise by a third since the end of November.

“The valuation was extremely attractive, and the recovery of oil is very supportive of not just the equity market but of Russia politically. When oil was sliding, people were not just concerned about equities but about stability there,” said Vinay Pande, head of short-term investment opportunities at UBS Wealth Management.

Besides soaring oil prices which are up 16 percent since the OPEC deal, a potential thaw in relations between the Kremlin and the incoming Trump administration is seen by analysts as one of the drivers for investing.

“There is a potential budding friendship between our two countries. Investors have extrapolated that we are going to have a more friendly relationship with Russia,” said Dave Mazza, head of ETF and mutual fund research at State Street Global Advisors.

[loganair] 16/12/2016 16:27

I see City of London Investment Management slightly increased their holdings in JRS, now holding 29.2% nudging ever closer to 29.99%.

Over the past couple of years it seems they have seen Russia as a place to invest in.

[galeforce1] 16/12/2016 11:11

logan

Maybe you have a point. I might switch from BRLA to JPB.

Good to see that JRS keeps ticking up. But volume is still very low which suggests to me that investing in Russia is still very unfashionable. But that is changing. We might see the discount narrow to 10% in the next few months.

The risks associated with investing in the UK over the next few years makes a trust like JRS all the more attractive.

[loganair] 15/12/2016 17:39

gale - I invest in JPB mainly out of ease as I can easily swap around my monthly investment into other JP Morgan Investment Trusts and I´m not very enthused with in vesting in Mexico much prefer Chile or even Cuba.

I was glad to see JPB may now invest upto 10% outside of Brazil, however I would prefer this to be increased to 20%.

As for Brazil itself, with an increasing price of both oil and commodities will both be supportive of their economy as they are going to be for Russia.