Jpmorgan Russian Securit... Share Discussion Threads

[loganair] 26/4/2016 12:17

With all these increases in Dividends being announced by Russian companies that JRS hold and the strengthening of the rouble against the pound up from 120rubs to the pound to around 95rubs to the pound today bodes very well for JRS 2017 dividend.

With the oil price still slowly but steadily increasing I can see the rouble strengthening still further to under 90rubs to the pound and possibly 85rubs by the year end.

Mind you, saying that, anyone in the trusts reinvestment plan will most probably get approximately the same number of shares as the price of the shares would also have increased.

[loganair] 26/4/2016 12:13

2015 dividend would imply 6.2% yield. Yesterday, Lukoil’s (JRS 9th Largest Investment) BoD recommended an additional dividend for 2015 at RUB112/share ($1.68/GDR), implying a non-annualized yield of 3.9%. The total 2015 dividend would be RUB177/share ($2.66/GDR at the current RUB/$ rate), implying a 6.2% yield.

[loganair] 25/4/2016 11:11

Dividend yield at 3.6%. Rosneft's (JRS 4th Largest Investment) BoD recommended the 2015 dividend at RUB11.75/share ($0.18) on Friday, corresponding to a payout of 35% of 2015 IFRS net profit. The dividend yield based on Friday's closing price is 3.6%.

[rupe1958] 22/4/2016 16:49

A decent performance over the last month, but I see the discount (from the mid-price) is still over 15%, which suggests to me that we still have some way to go here. With the proviso that the oil price continues to improve or at least holds holds steady around the current level of $45 or so.

[loganair] 21/4/2016 10:26

Commencing April 21, Korean Air will resume services between South Korea’s Incheon and Russia’s second largest city, St. Petersburg. The airline will operate three flights a week, utilizing Airbus A330 aircraft.

[loganair] 18/4/2016 09:59

Industry posts cautious improvement in 1Q16 - Production dropped 0.5% YoY in March. According to Rosstat data released last Friday industrial production grew 9.1% MoM in March after 3% MoM growth in February. However, it decelerated 0.5% YoY in March from 1% YoY growth in February. The figure was above the market consensus compiled by Interfax which had forecast industry to drop 1% YoY. Seasonally adjusted industrial production grew 0.4% MoM in March after zero growth in February and 0.7% MoM growth in January (January and February figures were revised downwards). All in all, production dropped 0.6% YoY in 1Q16.

[loganair] 18/4/2016 09:57

Reasonable revenue growth seen in March - Sales up 16.1% YoY in March. Dixy Group (JRS 12th Largest Investment) released a trading update for March on Friday. Although revenue growth slowed MoM, adjusted for the calendar factor, there were also some improvements MoM. Consolidate revenue growth decelerated 2.4 ppt MoM to 16.1% YoY to RUB26.4 bln ($374 mln). Dixy division’s revenues rose 18.1 % YoY (vs. 20.3% YoY in February) to RUB21.4 bln ($303 mln), 3.3 ppt faster than Magnit’s (JRS 5th Largest Investment) convenience store division, which expanded 14.8% YoY. Sales increased 12.0% YoY (but contracted 4.3 ppt MoM) to RUB3.2 bln ($45 mln) in the Victoria division, while they grew 1.6% YoY (vs. 1.9% in February) to RUB1.6 bln ($23 mln) in the MegaMart division.

[loganair] 15/4/2016 16:25

Russia’s economy moves from contraction to stagnation - Key indicators improve YoY … the data published by Rosstat showed that the economy improved moderately in February. Industrial production grew 1% YoY after contracting 2.7% YoY in January. The improvement in industry was mainly driven by the extraction segment, but contraction in manufacturing eased. Retail trade dynamics improved to a contraction of 5.9% YoY in February compared to 7.3% YoY in January. There was a substantial YoY improvement in construction, transport, and services, al-though most of the indicators improved YoY due to the leap-year effect. Unemployment remained flat for the economically active population at 5.8%. As a result, the market estimates that real GDP dropped only 0.7% YoY in February after contracting 3.2% YoY in January.

[loganair] 14/4/2016 16:51

Management board recommends 2015 dividend at 3% above 2014 level - Dividend yield about 5%. Gazprom’s (JRS 2nd Largest Investment) management board has recommended to the board of directors that the 2015 dividend be set at RUB7.4/share ($0.11/share or $0.22/GDR), a yield of 5%. In ruble terms, it would be a 3% increase over the 2013 and 2014 dividend of RUB7.2/share. In dollar terms, the dividend is down 16% YoY based on the exchange rates on the dates of the announcements.

[firtashia] 13/4/2016 19:23

Loganair- those people I would suggest have already been assassinated.
Yeltsin, whatever his numerous faults, was the first Russian leader in the past 400 years to recognise the right of Russia's neighbours to full independence. Sadly I think we are in for another very long period of time before we get another one.

[loganair] 13/4/2016 09:01

Revenues up 15.3% YoY in March, slowing 4.2 ppt MoM. Magnit (JRS 5th largest Investment) yesterday released trading data for March. Revenue growth slowed MoM in March (it was boosted by the calendar factor in February) to roughly the same level as in January. Consolidated revenue rose 15.3%YoY to RUB90.0 bln ($1.3 bln) – 4.2 ppt slower than in February. Sales growth at its convenience stores, the company’s key segment, reached 14.8%% YoY to RUB66.4 bln ($941 mln). Sales at the hypermarket division dropped by 1% YoY to RUB13.9 bln ($197 mln), while those at the family segment rose 37% YoY to RUB4.7 bln ($67 mln). Revenues at the cosmetics segment increased 84% YoY to RUB5.0 bln ($71 mln).

[loganair] 13/4/2016 08:36

firtashia - As such I am not pro-Putin however looked what happened to Russia under the weak Yeltsin and the soviet presidents.

In my good opinion the amount mentioned in the article is rather far fetched however I do believe that Putin´s income is far, far higher than what he officially earns.

If Russia didn´t have Putin at the helm who´d you suggest. Personally my vote would be for the lady speaker of the Duma who use to be the mayor of St Petersburg.

[firtashia] 11/4/2016 12:40

Loganair - If, as you say, Russia has needed such a man as Putin to protect the country from being ravished by oligarchs, then I presume he is worth every penny of the quantity of money mentioned in this article.

[its the oxman] 09/4/2016 07:53

Generally good results and slight improvement in sentiment and we could see 400p again.

[loganair] 08/4/2016 15:27

ROAE improves to 20% - NIM jumps 1 ppt MoM. Sberbank (SBER RX – Buy) (JRS Largest Investment) released March RAS numbers yesterday. Net income climbed 29% MoM to almost RUB41 bln, the best monthly result since December 2014, while ROAE reached 20% (for the first time since mid-2014). 1Q16 ROAE stood at 17% versus 16% in 4Q15. NIM jumped 1 ppt MoM to 6.4% and was among the main drivers of profitability increase. The improvement was partly thanks to the end-quarter effect, due partially to ruble strengthening and as expensive deposits from early 2015 continued to mature (this will likely support NIM until end-2Q16).

[loganair] 07/4/2016 16:56

firtashia - I agree with most of what you post however if Russia had a weak president or Western style of government then like a pack of wolves the oligarchs would take over, ravish and blunder Russia leaving it a basket case as what has happened to the Ukraine and is why in my good opinion on the whole Russia has needed such a man as Putin in charge and has done more good then harm to the Russian economy.

[loganair] 06/4/2016 17:19

Central Bank of Russia became the world's leading purchaser of gold, as it bought 356,000 ounces of the precious metal in February 2016, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In general, Russia increased its reserves of monetary gold by 208.4 metric tons in 2015 and continues to buy the precious metal at a growing pace.

China follows Russia with about 320,000 ounces of gold bought in February 2016, according to the Chinese Central Bank.

Interestingly enough, since the beginning of 2016 the yellow metal has become "the year's best-performing major asset" rising by almost 16 percent. "In January 2016 the Russian Central Bank again bought 22 tons of gold, around $800 million at current exchange rates, that, amidst US and EU financial sanctions and low oil prices.

Russia now has 1,437 tons of gold in reserve, the sixth largest of any nation according to the World Gold Council in London.

[loganair] 06/4/2016 16:15

2015 EBITDA 5% above expectations. DIXY Group (JRS 12th Largest Investment) yesterday released 2015 numbers which exceeded market expectations on profitability. Revenue rose 18% to RUB272 bln ($4.5 bln), in line with the previously released trading update and market expectations. EBITDA dropped 18% YoY to RUB13.5 bln ($221 mln), beating market expectations by 5%. The EBITDA margin declined 2.2 ppt YoY to 4.9%. For 4Q15 that implies a 1.6 ppt QoQ improvement in the EBITDA margin to 5.5%, which is still 1.7 ppt below the levels of 4Q14.

[loganair] 06/4/2016 16:14

Tatneft (JRS 8 Largest Investment) published 4Q15 IFRS results on Friday. Revenues beat the market consensus by 5%, increasing by 33% YoY and 3% QoQ to RUB139 bln ($2.1 bln). By contrast, EBITDA fell short of the consensus by 4%, declining 10% QoQ and rising 109% YoY to RUB30.9 bln ($0.47 bln). The EBITDA margin widened by 8.2 ppt YoY and narrowed 3.2 ppt QoQ to 22.3%. Net income was also below the street, up 5% YoY and down 16% QoQ to RUB19.6 bln ($0.3 bln). The net margin narrwed by 3.7 ppt YoY and 3.2 ppt QoQ to 14.1%.

[loganair] 06/4/2016 16:12

RAS net income and implies pref dividend above our estimate. Surgutneftegas (JRS 3rd Largest Investment) published non-consolidated RAS accounts for 2015. Net profit for the year was RUB751 bln ($12.4 bln), implying that the preferred dividend payout, set by the company charter at 7.1% of net profit, should equal RUB6.92/share ($0.10 at RUB70/$). At yesterday’s closing price of RUB44.5/share ($0.65/share), it implies a dividend yield of 15.6%. The pref dividend implied by the 2015 result is 12% above our RUB6.2/share ($0.09/share) estimate.