|JP Morgan Russian Securities
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JP Morgan Russian Securities Share Discussion Threads
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|It is necessary to continue to reduce the level of the involvement of the Russian government in the country’s economy and to change the system of state administration, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said today.
"It is necessary to develop competition … to reduce the excessive presence of the government in the economy, to increase the investment attractiveness of the regions themselves and, of course, seriously restructure the system of government," Medvedev said at the Gaidar Forum.
Medvedev also stated that politically motivated barriers for beneficial projects including sanctions generate tensions in the entire world.
“Sharp politicization of international economic relations is an important feature of modern economy which concerns everyone … The strong-arm approach, sanctions which run counter to economic considerations, I’m not even speaking of political motives, but of the fact that they are always harmful to the economy, politically motivated barriers for mutually beneficial projects are constantly generating global tensions nowadays,” Medvedev said at the Gaidar forum.|
|Russia is forecasting growth of 3% for 2019 while I note the World Bank only forecasting 1.8%
I also see for the second year running the Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina has been named as European Central Bank governor of the year and the chief of the IMF, Christine Lagarde lauded Nabiullina for doing “a fantastic job” while tackling the financial problems in Russia, and inflation in particular.
The rouble has hit a high since it crashed a couple of years ago. The Russian currency strengthened to 59.2 against the dollar, also slightly up against the euro at 63.06.
In the last 12 months, the ruble has been the world’s best-performing currency, strengthening 22.59 percent against the dollar. The Russian currency has continued the rally this year, gaining 3.28 percent against the greenback.
The Russian budget relies on oil prices of $40 per barrel and 67.5 rubles for a dollar this year.
The strengthing rouble gives Nabiullina greater scope to ruduce interest rates and at a faster pace.|
Might be time to load up on India (NII,JII) then after the Demonetisation dip|
|Washington should move from viewing Russia as a permanent adversary to a partner at times, Rex Tillerson, nominated to head the State Department under President-elect Donald Trump, said during a hearing of the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.
“Russia more than anything wants to establish its role in the global world order,” said Tillerson. “Russia is here, and Russia matters, and they are a force to be dealt with,” he added.
“My experience with the Russians, they are very calculating, they are very strategic in their thinking and they develop a plan,” said Tillerson. The ex-CEO added that Moscow is “judging responses” of other states and “based on the responses they make the next steps.”|
|I am happy we also chat about JBP (Brazil) on this thread has both Brazil and Russia have economies based on Commodities, Oil and Gold.
Moody's international rating agency forecasts that Russia’s GDP will grow by 1% in 2017, according to the agency’s report released today. Moody's forecasts a further rise to 3.0% in 2018.
2017 World Bank GDP Forecasts For Select Emerging Markets:
|Thank you, LuckyMouse.
Fascinating stuff and a lot of food for thought and further research.
|Feels like the only way is up here, long may it last.|
its the oxman
Welcome and great to see you here.
We especially like JPB Brazil, JRS on this thread.
Thanks for the heads-up on JAM. I have invested heavily 18 months ago into SMT/Scottish Mortgage which has racked up great gains for a £4bn investment trust but will look also at JAM.- Thanks.
loganair -thanks - fully concur about oil. - in the end OPEC had to come together and do the obvious thing. - nothing like a nice cartel when it's working properly to bolster prices!
KT - any more like VOF?? wow! Please let us know.
|This was easy my best investment for last year followed by VOF.
Going forward for 2017 i was looking at www.gurufocus.com and they listed their 2017 market predictions.
1. Russia 33%
2. China 30%
3. Singapore 18%
4. India 16%
5. Brazil 15%
Dont know how good they are but will find out in 12 months time. Every market prediction i have seen for the year coming has Russia way out top because of oil and currency movements.
Please DYOR, all the best KT.|
|My understanding is that the mandate to buy back shares has to be renewed every year.
Russia and Brazil are still in the top 10 cheapest stock markets in the world.
I see the forecast high for oil during 2017 has now climbed to $65 per bbl which bodes well for the Russian market.|
|quepassaHello. We meet again. This one has potential as has JAM and RCP. All opinion of course.Kind regards|
|Today’s Money Week magazine has an article about the attractions of investing in the Russian market. It points out that even after returning 30% in rouble terms (and more than 50% in dollar terms) in calendar 2016, the Russian market trades at a multiple of only 7.5 times current-year earnings and the macro economic output is improving, this being helped by the recovery in the oil price.
The corporate sector is in a strong position with most companies not indebted and having strong cash flow. The market yields 4% on 2016 payouts and over 7% for 2017.
Their recommended fund to take advantage of all this is JRS.|
My reading of today's RNS is that the board will request a new mandate at the AGM on 7 March. This will give the trust the authority to buy up to 20% of its own shares, which they can buy anywhere below a 2% discount to NAV. This sounds like a sensible way of managing the excessive discount. Many trusts, like SMT, do the same thing. In the case of SMT the trust has power to issue new shares to reduce the premium.
But you are the expert on JRS. If you say that this power has always existed then I'm sure you're correct.|
|QP - this mandate to buy back shares when at a certain discount to Nav is the same every year and similar to other JP Morgan trusts.
Kurin saying he expects Russia to grow by 3% in 2019 and 4% in 2020.|
can you please say if that is a new mandate or an existing one ?
do you know where I can readily find the relevant announcement or do you perhaps kindly have a link?
|A mandate to narrow the discount to NAV by buying up to 20% of JRS stock sounds like very good news.
The discount has been narrowing, but with current assets of 631 to the mid-price at 550 it's still around 13%.
With this level of buy-back the discount should be no more than 5% by the end of this year.|
|Zooom (or for russian speakers - зуyy
I will put my granny on ebay if it doesn't hit that mark|
|rare for an investment trust to trade at less than 15% discount to NAV . Nice looking chart I must say and more in this one .|
|Also 15% below NAV, I suspect at the top we'll be much closer to NAV.|
|Happy New Year, Loganair.
And I echo others' thanks and gratitude for all your efforts and fascinating posts over 2016 on this and other boards.
The seeming warmth between Putin and Trump is both jarring and hard to ignore. The foundations are being well laid for a strong rehabilitation of Russia in the global markets which will boost Russia's economy and trade alongside surging commodity prices.
Fully concur that Russia looks cheap.
ALL IMO. DYOR.
|Loganair - thanks for all your very interesting posts in 2016. It's encouraging that you feel things continue to look good for 2017. I would definitely agree with that. Even after a partial recovery in 2016 the Russian stock market is still one of the cheapest in the world and the positive, business-oriented approach of the Trump administration to Russia is encouraging. I think JRS is now my biggest holding.|
|How is JRS looking for 2017?
Most the indicators are very positive.
Russian economy is expected to grow by around 1%.
Russia's budget is based on a 2017 oil price of $40 per bbl when the current price is $55.
The rouble is expected to strengthen from $61 to $55 by the end of the first quarter of 2017. As. JRS is priced in Sterling one may expect n equivalent 10% or 50p on the JRS share price.
Germany imported a record amount of gas from Russia during 2016. Germany say they will be increasing the amount of gas they import from Russia by 5% year on year for the next 10 years to grow it's assets in Germany.
All in all I can see JRS share price reaching 650p to 700p by the end of 2017.
Two of the top men in Trump 's administration are pro Russia, therefore I expect an easing of sanctions
Rosneft (JRS 4th Largest Investment) a few days ago set up Rosneft Deutschland|
|Russia adds 31 tonnes of gold to reserves in November - which is more gold than around the 20 tons Russia mines a month.
“It is clearly taking advantage of the lower gold price to do so, especially since the strong Russian ruble makes gold even cheaper in local currency. In recent months, the gold purchases of the Russian central bank have presumably put the brakes on the gold price slide,” said Commerzbank.|