Jpmorgan Chinese Investm... Share Discussion Threads

[nerja] 31/1/2008 18:52

Agreed Hectorp, I am still saving my ammo its hard though, like you say more consolidation required, but for sure I think a good bet long term still for the BRIC trusts once the dust has settled.

[hectorp] 31/1/2008 18:47

That is the sort of tantalising report that should get us back to buying dear old JMC. Not today however.
Maybe next month .. I would still want to see a few days of strength in the price and more consolidation around 110-12.

[nerja] 31/1/2008 17:35

View of the day: Chinese equities
Richard Wong, HSBC Group

Published: January 31 2008 17:02 | Last updated: January 31 2008 17:02

The Chinese equity market is returning to attractive levels as we approach the Year of the Rat, according to Richard Wong of Halbis, the active management specialist of the HSBC Group. He says that the 2008 price/earnings ratio of Chinese shares has returned to more attractive levels after the sharp correction of 2007, and that earnings growth remains strong.

While there will be uncertainty in the short term, equities could resume their climb in the second quarter of 2008 when there is more clarity over both the US outlook and whether rising Chinese inflation can be curbed, Mr Wong says.

"We believe the Chinese government may increase interest rates to help reduce inflation ahead of the National People's Congress meeting in March 2008. However, any interest rises would not have a substantial negative impact on Chinese equities."

Other positive factors include a cut in corporate tax from 33 per cent to 25 per cent, and the trend of industrial consolidation, which may continue to unlock company value.

While growth in China would likely slow in the event of a global recession, this would not sound the death knell for the booming market, Mr Wong says.

"China has emerged as a global economic powerhouse in its own right. Over recent years, it has increasingly broadened its export base and reduced its dependence on the US. China's export trade should be quite resilient to any slowdown."

[nerja] 29/1/2008 10:05

Take a look at china, hong kong, india and russia, none of them did anything last night after the yanks turn blue as well, not good for me.

[apetley] 29/1/2008 09:30

I would love to buy back into these but remain cautious.
I want to see some good news out of the US and then maybe tempted. Another rate cut this week might be the trigger for me.
Remember that it is coming up to Chinese New Year, a traditionally sluggish time in their markets so unless something major happens I am not expecting fireworks for a couple of weeks.

[hectorp] 28/1/2008 10:35

Todays 6% fall suggests we arein for more downside here.
However the 'harder they fall' the quicker we can get to more of a bargain situation.

[hectorp] 24/1/2008 16:21

China growth still appears strong, though its not the only consideration.
The fact that JMC could not rally back to support trendline even , after the last night rallies in the US, speaks much. Still sidelined. But there could be signs of a rapid rally, so we need to keep our cash ready. I wont buy today however.

[nerja] 24/1/2008 09:58

Well last night before Ftse close, DOW was about 250 down, I would say the BRIC funds would dive 5 to 10 % if that had held, the DOW turns big style yet china, india still go down. Not for the faint hearted at the moment, catch them right, you could make big gains get it wrong now though and BIG losses, anybody trading them at the moment I take my hat off to.
I have not got a clue now which way short term so staying out, the yanks have got to sort themselves out asap, may have an up market till the fed meeting, the rate cut could send the market either way again, I want confirmation of a bottom before making a move, burnt too badly bottom fishing in the dot com bust.

[nerja] 23/1/2008 14:29

Sit on hands time, its bloody hard to do but things appear as though they will gets worse before they get better. If I had bought at yesterdays bottom I would take profits these JII, JMg could do really badly over night.

[hectorp] 23/1/2008 13:50

I agree with him. PS today,JMC looks more a good short than long.
I'm neutral and will wait a future support point.

[nerja] 22/1/2008 11:08

More relevant comments from the front line:

John Authers in the FT:

'Once sell-offs go this far, history says they can be expected to fall further before hitting a bottom. A bounce is likely before long. But it will be a bounce within a bear market.'

[nerja] 22/1/2008 08:53

Hectorp, the fund managers are still selling shares for buybacks, so they dont think there is value yet, take care mate. Maybe a quick in and out trade, but what ever level this falls to it will have to retest soon after for me now to really go back in. No matter what the yanks come up with now there is too much fear set in to be sure the bounce is not a dead cat one, cash is king for me until this becomes much clearer, best of luck, I think we will all need it over the coming months now.

[hectorp] 22/1/2008 08:38

You should see a really good deadcat bounce tomorrow, even, back up 10-12% , if you can be bothered chaps. Same for many shares and Funds.
We are getting to bargain territory.

[hectorp] 22/1/2008 08:38

You should see a really good deadcat bounce tomorrow, even, back up 10-12% , if you can be bothered chaps. Same for many shares and Funds.
We are getting to bargain territory.

[apetley] 22/1/2008 08:29

yes, as in armageddon outta here

[boraki] 22/1/2008 07:58

"Armageddon" people

[hectorp] 21/1/2008 08:54

We agree.
And JMC has no lost its trading channel and will probably see single figures in weeks. Support as low as 78p.. wait it out in cash.

We could have to wait up to 6-7 months, but in the end it shall be worth it. BAnks too, maybe 20? percent more to fall eg RBS.
H.

[nerja] 16/1/2008 10:03

Hectorp, May well be best to wait now to see when the fund mangers stop selling stock for buybacks/cancellations, I think i will wait till i see no cancellations on all the funds for 3 to 4 weeks on none of them. I will miss the bottom but until they stop selling shares these markets for me will just keep falling. The FED are up creek without paddle, if they give the 75bp that some are calling for big short covering rally but will there be any real investing? This is starting to get worse than the tech bubble, then it was only toy money on companies that did not in the main affect the real world, this time its the very heart of the system thats going belly up. Some of the banks look a steal but i wont buy until that bottom is well and truly in place, i will miss 10 to 15 % from the bottom but better that than trying to catch that knife.

[hectorp] 16/1/2008 09:48

I gemerally agree, better waiting for 'bargain' price here again. Down 5% today, more than the DOW or FTSE. Lets also see if support holds.

[nerja] 15/1/2008 10:37

Hectorp, long term the bric countries still look good. Many think this sub prime will be sorted over the next few months, dont think I agree with that if house prices fall over the next year or so world wide then it must follow that the banks will have more defaults/bad debts so write downs may continue for longer. In the medium term the bric countries wont have this debt but will be dollar cash rich so they will be wanting to park/buy with this cash because its value will be falling. The chinese are going for commodities setting up parnerships all over africa, australia, canada etc. India is going to be building its infrastruture up big style so is going to be insulated from the outside somewhat. Russia appears to be set fair with the commodities and the supply of grains its only problem for me is politics. So with the currency play especially against sterling they all look safe bets medium term.

Short term the currency play and the lack of involvement in this cash problem will be a positive but they could be entering overbought positions,though i think JMc has had its big pullback and JII,JRS,JMG could shoot up another 10%+ before any pullback.If and when there is a pullback it will be just normal corrections. I think JMC is a buy in the 120s or above the 140p breakout level, the others will be a buy for me on any real pullback which ever level they are at and all of them will be on my radar/core holdings for the future.

[hectorp] 15/1/2008 08:48

It has stopped rising however it looks more like a consolidation phase here.

I agree there is and very well shall may be more credit issues worldwide especially in US and UK ( though thre are strategies being utiliesed in the US to get to grips with it , though they too may only prove medium termist)
- but my strategy is though these are contageous the distance from them of China etc pluc China's stranght as a trading grower and a currency hedge against sterling and USD outweighs holding funds in a Western bank account for example. I believe in 2008 there ismore that is defensive holding LMC than meets the eye. THis goes too for TEM and JII ( India)
- please debate my points anyone?

[apetley] 15/1/2008 04:30

I sold off these yesterday.
Until they stop reacting so violently to any bad news from the US I will probably stay out too.
Think that there will be even more bad news from the States in the coming months too especially the big financials exposed to the sub prime debacle.
I wish I still held but my nerve went and I think there are safer investments but maybe without the higher(potential) returns.
Good luck to all who still hold.

[hectorp] 11/1/2008 10:52

JMC has enjoyed quite a bit of consolidation in the last few weeks, and the volatility has slipped down.