Johnston Press Share Discussion Threads

[brando69] 24/2/2017 13:46

40K sell trigged another 3% off the price

[netcurtains] 24/2/2017 13:46

thanks brando69 for figures.
Nice to see Scotsman and Yorkshire Post in positive territory

[brando69] 24/2/2017 12:54

hxxp://www.holdthefrontpage.co.uk/2017/news/abcs-two-thirds-increase-sees-jp-daily-top-the-web-charts/
So the conclusion from these stats is that JPR needs to look within and without to try and improve its online strategy:
What is the Belfast local doing that the rest of its titles are not?
What are Trinity Mirror - up 76% year on year - doing that JPR - up 5% year on year - is not?

[netcurtains] 24/2/2017 09:43

I dont trade - I buy and hold.
Sell "some" when I want to lock in profits.
Buy back in "IF" falls enough.
I always have some of my original stake (normally about 50%) come what may (no stop loss at all). But I do sell on way up.
Once it reaches target I slowly off load.

Currently I'm in the 50% position. As you say late 20s was a target (I think I was reasonably honest there) but so is 50p another target. Sold to lock in and will now wait for 50p COME WHAT MAY (even if falls to 5p)... UNLESS NEWS SAYS OTHER WISE (eg news driven from now on).

[netcurtains] 24/2/2017 09:39

brando69: not necessarily, when I was in Arcadia secret buyer used all sorts (iceland etc) to buy wads of shares - it took a while before we knew what was going on.

[brando69] 24/2/2017 09:39

so annoyed with myself for not riding with my gut. sold half of my JPR at 28.15 on Wed and bought into IRR at 20 and 20.88. Perfect trade. IRR rose to 23, and I sold, as I saw JPR up to 31. Bought back my sold JPR shares, and more at 29.5 and 30.5. JPR now 26, IRR... also 26! A trade too far!

[brando69] 24/2/2017 09:27

The volume traded here in last few days says there is NO way there have not been changes to significant holdings. RNS is well late.

[netcurtains] 24/2/2017 06:58

Trying to see what could cause this rise without a news item...
In the past its been because :

a) An investor is building up a stake via nominees in order to do a hostile or secret take-over.
b) Closing shorts (a bear trap - some shorters could have lost their shirts (if you note any anger in short posters from time to time this could explain it - their pride does not let them say what happened)
c) News items just a day or so late
d) No stock at all but the few buyers just kept on coming (momentum buying)

Interesting to see if we fall hold or break back over 30 - anything can happen - I have absolutely no idea what is happening at all.

[karlos885] 23/2/2017 20:08

Please lord C calm yourself you remind me of an old editor. 8p to 30p, there is value here for those who realise fundamentally these titles will reach a low and the ones that survive this low will be more valueable than ever before. It literally is survival of the fittest no doubt some of JPRs publication will come through this.

JPR may end up a smaller but much more streamlined profitable company or it may end up in the hands of a predator, either way there clearly is realisable value in this company that you are ignoring or don't know about.

[netcurtains] 23/2/2017 19:45

Lord C:

Although you have ignored my post, no doubt thinking it silly, it was there just to point out the logical flaw in your own post. If something is pointing down now, you cannot simply draw a line using basic trigonometry to the zero point any more than I can to the infinite point.

There are so many variables along the way, eddies and secret pools, different business models and fivers down the back of sofas that all you can achieve, is like a professional weatherman, judge a few days at a time (if you are lucky) and give a guess to the long term

Your guess is that the print business is not viable and going to zero.
Others guess that the Thornton's Choc people know a few variables we do not...

I have made 100% profit on this share due to people thinking like you (if the share was not down it would not have come up) and you likewise make money out of people like me.

But don't kid yourself, your position is no more sane than mine - you just think I'm an idiot and you are clever - dont count your chickens.

Thorntons Chocolates might see something we do not.

I think they see 50p....

[thevaluehunter] 23/2/2017 18:22

Also I think the ABC figures out today for H2 2016 tell pretty much the same story as the trading update on 3rd Feb (ex i figures).

[thevaluehunter] 23/2/2017 18:02

That is the crutial operational question, can online growth make up for the declining print vol. Could inews launched last april (currently with nil comparatives) + the 5.9% from regional online do it...

hxxps://inews.co.uk/essentials/culture/media/inews-shortlisted-website-year-press-awards-less-12-months-launch/

[lord c.] 23/2/2017 17:09

Lord C.>>>Valuehunter,

Sadly the profits are (or were) in the printed version. I am told extracting serious money from online is proving rather difficult.

[thevaluehunter] 23/2/2017 16:35

Here is the article for online regionals. JPR daily uniques up 5.8% which is pretty good given that they have disposed of titles.

hxxp://www.holdthefrontpage.co.uk/2017/news/abcs-two-thirds-increase-sees-jp-daily-top-the-web-charts/

[netcurtains] 23/2/2017 16:15

Lord C: I gave you a tick up. Love your optimism. I'm just as optimistic as you - I believe they are going up to infinity.

[lord c.] 23/2/2017 16:11

I know that most of you are getting excited re upward share movement but pause and reflect on latest ABC figures where JPR lead the way. For example-
Wigan down 35%
Hartlepool down 22.8%
South Shields down 22.3%
Blackpool down 16.9%
Sunderland down 15.9%
and the mighty Scotsman down 14.5%
These falls are seriously bad news for viability of the group. I stick to my opinion that these shares have no value.

[brando69] 23/2/2017 15:28

today has been a reminder to me why overtrading is not often a good thing!

[netcurtains] 23/2/2017 15:26

Extrader: I backed FlyBe - think its most likely to hit 100% ON JAN 1st (rather than any other time).. I was thinking in terms of winning the competition rather than just picking one that will go up. I was going to pick JPR , and I still think this will get to 50p - which is great... So as long as it does not fall below 11p I will hold on for the 50p (or more).. Something is going on that is for sure... No idea what, who or why? Dont care.

CONGRATULATIONS of picking a 100% - it is harder than people think.

[netcurtains] 23/2/2017 15:24

feel sad - dont know why as I'm much better off than 3 days a go. Its always like this. You go out to have a cooked "mega" breakfast at lunch time and you see 10% of your money go up the swannie!

[extrader] 23/2/2017 15:22

Hi netcurtains,

blimy "fun money" - Can I have some?

Je regrette .->

I had some spare cash in the SIPP round about the time I put JPR as my entry in mudbath's 'shares to double in 2017' thread ("100%") at 13.375, when I realised it would be more honest to back my WAG (= 'wild-assed guess') with some real money.

The rest (a few weeks later) as they say, is history....;->

ATB

Discl.: At some point - probably soon - I'll cash in my chips for a "more serious" investment . There ! That'll probably jinx it .....

[brando69] 23/2/2017 14:22

absurd that we've had no holdings RNS

[netcurtains] 23/2/2017 14:21

blimy "fun money" - Can I have some?

[extrader] 23/2/2017 14:10

Hi valuehunter,

The bonds trade at a discount because of concerns re JPR's ability to repay them in 2019.

The problem AH has to get around is that the more assets JPR sells/cash-flow it generates, the less incentive a bond-holder has to accept (much) less than par for allowing his holding to be retired early. Especially if/when there's likely replacement risk : where else can a bondholder get a bond paying 8.625% face , never mind the 14% or so running yield that - as you point out - JPR is effectively paying.


I have some fun money in this and am happy to see the direction of travel, but confess I'm not clear how exactly CA are going to get around these challenges !

ATB

[thevaluehunter] 23/2/2017 13:19

I would hope that their cash position is pretty strong at the moment having sold their Isle of Mann and East Anglia titles for over £20m since the last set of interim results. They are also marketing their +100k sq ft freehold site in Sheffield city centre which should be worth a fair bit. hxxp://www.thestar.co.uk/news/the-star-s-sheffield-headquarters-are-put-up-for-sale-1-8375232

Surely the debt buy back needs to get cracking asap because the effective interest rate they are shelling out on the bonds is massive.

[brando69] 23/2/2017 11:15

sold my IRR at 22.75 and 23 - all back here at 29.54 and 30.57 for an increased holding. Happy!