Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 12/10/2016 15:55

I'm afraid that's an attempt at a short-term trade by me, selling some just now.

The price today has held up at pretty much the theoretical ex-rights price based on yesterday's 615p close (at least according to my calcs). So I think as the rights come through to shareholders' accounts there will be some selling pressure. While it is possible that someone will use this as an opportunity to accumulate, I think the incentive for the activists to seek more control is diminished now that the company seems to be moving in the direction the activists were pushing for.

[buffettjnr] 05/10/2016 18:24

Seems crazy to even pay any attention to short term price movements. My energy is saved for more astute endeavours....it's where the price is a year or two or five from now that is important.

[1gw] 05/10/2016 16:19

Nice to see the share price up near 620p again but feels like someone playing games here. Share price apparently driven up on tiny trades with very little total volume. Yesterday afternoon we had a similar pattern and then a relatively big uncrossing trade well below the price just before the close. Fingers crossed we don't get a repeat today.

[1gw] 03/10/2016 17:21

Disclosed shorts.

I missed it at the time but according to the FCA spreadsheet, Old Mutual closed out their short on 16th September (from 0.56% to 0.00%), the day of the acquisition announcement. So perhaps the volume and spike in price on the day was largely driven by Old Mutual's decision to close.

[buffettjnr] 27/9/2016 10:45

Volumes are very low...I'm guessing but it re-rates post RI....Implied P/E after RI is now 9.4x

[1gw] 27/9/2016 10:28

Share price a bit disappointing since the acquisition announcement spike. One day I will learn to take profit when announcements are made. Is it just the "usual" weakness ahead of a rights issue?

[1gw] 16/9/2016 11:11

Hmmm. Manuel was fibbing.

[buffettjnr] 16/9/2016 11:03

Absolutely agree. Makes demerging the business more appropriate too.

As Manuel said to Basil...

[1gw] 16/9/2016 10:31

So did you know something?

Interesting acquisition. Must come with a fair bit of execution risk but if they can pull it off then it should be great.

Apart from the strategic benefits and synergy opportunities of the acquisition itself, there may be a couple of other side benefits. The increase in scale of the aviation business should help to change the market's perception of the nature of the company (growth vs managed decline) - going at least part way to achieve the hoped-for benefits of a business split. And I would have thought it might also help with the pensions issue, by reducing the (relative) potential impact of any underfunding on the company as a whole.

[1gw] 16/9/2016 07:45

Even spookier. Have I wandered into the twilight zone?

[buffettjnr] 15/9/2016 20:36

Well let's see what tomorrow shall bring dot dot dot

[1gw] 15/9/2016 19:27

But back again yesterday, taking their short position back up to 0.56%.

[buffettjnr] 24/8/2016 17:49

That's wise

[1gw] 24/8/2016 17:00

Looks like Old Mutual has given up on its Menzies short:

0.82% 7th June
0.60% 17th Aug
0.46% 18th Aug

[buffettjnr] 16/8/2016 07:43

The chairman will not disappoint....850-900p by June 2017

[1gw] 16/8/2016 07:27

Look like encouraging results, the pension fund aside. Corporate split now moving up the agenda it seems.

[buffettjnr] 21/7/2016 17:20

In USD terms it is now only at the level it reached on that fateful day 23 June 2016

[1gw] 21/7/2016 16:51

600p breached. Amazing how this keeps grinding higher.