Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 08/7/2016 10:46

So where's the holdings notice from SVM then?

[grahamite2] 06/7/2016 11:08

I took profits on Monday, but only because greed has cost me in the past. Good luck all.

[1gw] 04/7/2016 13:11

How do you know?

I did notice that at the recent (20th May) AGM they had 22m shares voted against the EGM notice resolution and 20m against the disapplication of pre-emption rights. I think that's 36% and 33% respectively of the total voting rights.

You might expect those campaigning for change to vote against the pre-emption rights resolution. It is less obvious why they would vote against the EGM notice resolution, although perhaps they feel they would want the extra time to prepare/campaign for any controversial EGM.

If you look at those who are "out" on the split issue you have:
12% Kabouter
9% Lakestreet
7% SVM
So 28% total.

Even if SVM already had its 7% by the AGM cut-off date (and presumably not or there should have been a holdings notice) that suggests companies/individuals holding a further 5% of shares felt strongly enough about the issue to vote against the pre-emption rights resolution.

[buffettjnr] 04/7/2016 12:47

And another...still to disclose

[1gw] 04/7/2016 11:42

We have another one apparently - Shareholder Value Management

"Activist investor builds 7 percent stake in John Menzies"

[1gw] 30/6/2016 16:21

Nice little pop in the share price there. Looks like my profit-taking continues to act as a bullish signal...

[1gw] 27/6/2016 15:25

Took some profit this afternoon. Notwithstanding my comments above about potential forex gains, I have some concern about the turmoil affecting the UK airlines at the moment.

[buffettjnr] 24/6/2016 09:19

The aviation business makes no money in the UK, so weak sterling will be positive for it. Distribution business will of course have no real benefit that I can think of.

[1gw] 24/6/2016 07:56

Any thoughts on brexit implications?

Potential difficulties down the line on European business? But potential windfall forex gains on translation of overseas earnings into sterling. Too optimistic to think a net positive?

[1gw] 10/6/2016 10:11

Disclosed short.

Old Mutual increased from 0.60% to 0.82% short on 7th June.

Old Mutual are shorting a number of stocks I hold and I read their relatively new/increased positions as most probably an attempt to hedge the brexit risk on their much bigger long portfolio.

[buffettjnr] 24/5/2016 13:34

I wonder if the company is not in the process of looking at an acquisition and the disruption that came from the board changes needed to be addressed to further the discussions. My guess is it's a major acquisition which could be a game-changer...

[grahamite2] 24/5/2016 11:55

I seem to remember reading years ago that a share split is calamitous for shorters, as the lenders of the stock have to demand it back. Am I wrong in thinking this?

[1gw] 24/5/2016 09:49

Interesting RNS yesterday. Paula Bell out of the way early. New chairman committed to role for 12 months and no hurry to find replacement.

I could read that as saying everything's now in place to focus on the option of splitting the company.

"The Company now confirms that Paula Bell stepped down from the Board and as Chief Financial Officer as at the close of business on 20 May 2016. She will remain on gardening leave as an employee of the Company until the expiry of her notice period on 29 July 2016.

The Company is pleased to confirm that Giles Wilson will be appointed as Chief Financial Officer with effect from 1 June 2016 and not 1 July 2016 as previously announced.
...
Dermot is committed to the role as Chairman for the next 12 months and will ensure a period of stability now follows as the Group pursues a number of strategic initiatives. He will in due course lead the process to appoint a new Chairman."

[1gw] 20/5/2016 16:30

Old Mutual increased their short slightly on 18th.

0.60% (up from 0.57%)

[buffettjnr] 20/5/2016 08:09

Exactly. The work has already been done on the pension fund and implications of split. To me it reads like the outgoing (thankfully) chairman is trying to have one last attempt st associating himself with the future successful unbundling. Something he couldn't do in his enjoyable 8 years in charge.

Trading update was fantastic.

[1gw] 20/5/2016 07:11

Oh well, pension advisors were not quite who I had in mind for "xyz", but still an interesting comment:

"The Board is progressing its evaluation of the optimal structure for the Group against the potential opportunities for expansion and acquisition in both divisions, as well as being mindful of its obligations to its pension scheme. We have therefore appointed additional pension advisers to work with our existing team and, following initial engagement with our pension trustees, we have begun to explore the various options. We intend to provide an update of the preliminary conclusions from this initiative by the end of the year. "

I may be reading too much into this but that sounds to me as though they are getting into the nitty gritty of what would happen to the pension scheme liabilities in the event of a split - given that the distribution business would throw off cash and therefore should not have too much difficulty in funding any deficit whereas the aviation business would likely be more highly geared, less cash generative initially and therefore less well-placed to make good a deficit.

Trading update itself is ok.

[1gw] 19/5/2016 17:36

Well by definitive I was thinking along the lines of:

"After further consideration of the optimum structure of the group and after consultation with major shareholders, the board has agreed that [Dermot Jenkinson/Forsyth Black/A N Other] will lead a project with [xyz advisors] to undertake further analysis and initiate the necessary preparatory practical steps to allow the board to [float Menzies Distibution/Menzies Aviation as an independent company] by [the end of the year]. The intention of the board is to take a final decision on whether to implement this option by [an earlier date]"

Probably a bit optimistic, I know.

[buffettjnr] 19/5/2016 16:43

No too early for anything definitive. As you point out, the entire top brass have exited.

But it will happen in my humbles....patience 1gw, patience....

[1gw] 19/5/2016 16:25

Exit stage left...

It's quite incredible when you think about it. The departures of CEO (13th Jan), CFO (18th April) and chairman (18th May) have all been announced this year.

Yet the share price closed at 388p on 12th Jan, the day before the exodus started and it's now around 520p - so roughly a 1/3 increase in that time.

I was sorely tempted to take more profit today, but in the end decided to see what tomorrow brings. What chance a more definitive statement on corporate structure?

[buffettjnr] 18/5/2016 08:31

1gw, I think you are very right on all three counts. Menzies cannot remain in its current form. I don't normally make predictions, but in this case I'll make an exception. I think Menzies doubles from here over 12 months.

[1gw] 18/5/2016 08:08

Must be some worrying announcements for the shorters!

1. Lakestreet up to 8.6% (so Kabouter+Lakestreet over 20% now)

2. Chairman stepping down.

3. Trading statement to be issued Friday.

I wonder if 2. removes a roadblock to (or is even a consequence of fraught discussions over) a corporate split.

[buffettjnr] 16/5/2016 16:52

Thanks. I do hope that he enjoys the AGM...

[1gw] 16/5/2016 16:21

Shorters

We have a disclosed shorter on the FCA spreadsheet for the first time for a couple of years.

0.57% short as of 13th May 2016: Old Mutual Global Investors (UK)

Perhaps accounts for some of the recent share price weakness.