Jelf Share Discussion Threads

[control1] 06/3/2009 21:54

Not quite true squaddie, we do earn close to what you say on the major combined products but what everyone appears to be missing is that Jelf have always been massive in healthcare, a market that traditionally pays much lower commissions plus, there is a big motor fleet account paying 15% or less

I'll tell you something, general commissions are NOTHING LIKE 30% for the average broker in the market, I have no idea where you get this from - before the co that I work for (major regional independent) got taken over, we got nowhere near this - we were a bit staggered by some of the comm levels going having been on an overall average (inc motor) of around 16%...!

Aon don't charge commission, they fee pretty much everything and probably Marsh too, the majority of the others that you mention are scheme specialists hence the larger commissions

Jelf are just a good old fashioned general brokerage (at the moment) but stick with it and we'll see - my bet is that we will pass the others on our way up when they are headed the other way?!

I reackon that the shares are at a good price at the mo but who knows, I have lost £30k in my SIPP this week with 2 co's going under due to lack of funding so clearly, I know F-all, it might go lower yet however there is no issue about survival and 50p might just look like a very silly price in a year or 2........

[squaddie] 05/3/2009 13:26

Gogoalex. I,m still here, just don't look in quite so often, as Control1 says what can you say about this thats news. Lots of turnover but little profit. I know what commision levels Aon, Giles, Bluefin, Marsh, Towergate are on. why is Jlf any different ?. General Insurance avg is about 30%, and yes the likes of AXA, NU are looking to reduce this by 5 points, but by taking on MID and delegated claims work this can be increased to 40%+. One can only surmise that the current business model compared to its peers is flawed. For what it's worth I still think this will come good, either that or one of the others will pick up a bargin. Some of the companies this group has bought were amongest the best independents in the market.

[control1] 02/3/2009 13:27

Gogoalex - no, not given up just not a lot to say at the mo. One point you should note though is that the finance is NOT 3i, it is 3iQPE - a different animal altogther.

Also, I am not sure what basis your previous statements re profit have been based on but JLF do not earn the sort of commission levels you speculate on and the days of anyone else doing this (if they do) are numbered..........

[gogoalex] 23/2/2009 07:47

control1, squaddie, where are you ? given up and moved on I guess, but one wonders whether there will be a time to buy back in ? or has this shot its bolt ? 3i in trouble and looking for cash will not find it here with there big holding, directors are buying a few pounds of stock but not in any quantity.

[gogoalex] 28/1/2009 16:43

been hanging on for results, last year announce at this time, anyone got an idea when they are going to announce, i see some peole work for jelf post on here so come on guys let us out of our misery
squaddie no idea why their overheads are so high, could be just jobs for the boys and fat cats, hopefully they will have taken heed of shareholders and I can imagine 3i are on warpath and kicking lumps out of them to produce results
3i are siiting on a multi million pound loss, me i have a few losses buthoping for a lift from results

[squaddie] 08/12/2008 11:42

Control1. I still do not understand where all the commissions you say you are earning is going. A standard business model for most consolidators is. Branch gross profits or EBITDA, as the accountants like to call it of between @30% to 35%, take out head office costs, payments for debt ect and you end up with @25% total gross profit. Based on Jelf turnover this should relate to @£10 million, why only £2.52 million ?. Gogoalex do you have any idea why this companies overheads are so high ?.

[control1] 07/12/2008 22:58

Gogoalex, sell if you wish but you'll be kicking yourself in a while.

Also, I only buy mining producers and to give you an example (you can look at it yourself) GFM.

Nearly 90p in April, NO DEBT, $80m plus cash in bank, zinc producer with 1.6m oz's gold resource which they are nearing in a few months time, now down to 16p bid, i.e. over 80% down

DYOR as they say but explain that.............?

[control1] 03/12/2008 22:26

Speaking as one of the brokerages that they bought, I know that they are very happy that they did.

I also know that our commission levels have soared ridiculously since we joined the group and we thought we were doing ok before the buy. Maybe its this that is taking some time to run through the system before reflecting in the results.

The last lot showed a significant increase and I expect this to improve again as more and more upgrades kick in - that said this is a disaster, albeit on paper only but is mirrored in some of the mining stocks that I bought not too long ago thinking we were near the bottom............help!

[squaddie] 01/12/2008 15:31

It would not be the first time that I have accepted information from ADVFN and found it wrong. If you look at the header it shows market capital as of todays date at £18.67 divide by 73p = 25.5 million. But I accept what you say about the 49m shares I just wish ADVFN would update the info. I still think the AIM tag has not helped, just about every AIM company good or bad, has been hit, even harder than the other main markets. But P/E stinks and in this lies the problem. Control1 what is the EBITDA of an average JLF office 20 25 30% ?. Is the problem the brokerages they have bought or is head office spending all the net profit on bounses and debt intrest ?.

[squaddie] 25/11/2008 12:23

gogoalex. Your quite right this should be a defensive stock, and it's continued fall is worrying. It might have somthing to do with the fact that Jelf have possible the lowest profit to premium ratio in the industry. In regards to my comment about floating on AIM. There are other consolidators that have raised capital without going onto AIM and still taken big wages and bounses, AIM is a present a troubled market and in hindsight I think the results would suggest those companies that chose an alternative have faired better. In regards to the share price, £3.00 would be closer to £75 million. ( based on the current 73.5p giving a market cap of £18.79 million ). Contol1 agree at this level whatever happens its a bargin. ( Even if it's listed on AIM ).

[control1] 24/11/2008 22:30

Gogoalex, too right we won't go bust!

Also, we were only having a conversation about this very subject this afternoon (and before I read this just now) and despite a modest amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth, it is only a paper loss at the moment and, speaking for the people at our place, no one wants to go anywhere

So, like you say, stick with it and buy some more if you can cos it's a bargin now.

[squaddie] 20/11/2008 15:07

This price makes no sense at all. But then again what in this market does ?.

[squaddie] 13/11/2008 15:24

Taken from the Insurance times 06/11. "Chris Giles suggested he would make a move on rival consolidators Oval and Jelf in an attempt to compete with the likes of Towergate and Venture Preferance". A bid at £1.50 would be intresting, would 3i take the bait ?. Giles had about £500m from the sale to Charterhouse. Giles might even pay up to £60 million which based on industry measure could be seen as fair value, this would price the shares close to £3.00. A price I have always said is closer to Jelfs real value.

[squaddie] 07/11/2008 11:33

Morti1 Don,t panic !!!. This will come back above what you have paid. The problem that Jelf and every other consolidator has is Insurers are losing money and the easy way to cut costs is to cut commissions. All consolidators are going to find it hard to hold onto commission rates of 50% plus, Towegate being the worse offender, then Giles. Jelf are not high on the Insurers hit list. At least with Jelf we have a company whose assets are well under valued and only if they continue to fall, will be targeted. I bet if you asked any of the Jelf top men, they would tell you they wished they had never listed on AIM. They have been tarred with the AIM brush and this is not a fair reflection on the real value of this company.

[control1] 05/11/2008 23:16

Yes, don't panic - 53% of the company is owned by the directors and staff and 3i are in for the long haul so there will be no successful hostile bids

Bide your time and all will come good...........

[morti1] 05/11/2008 12:33

Starting to worry about this company. I bought shares at 127p and the share price continues to erode away. Any thoughts about the future of this company. Any potential take over interest possible?

[squaddie] 30/10/2008 15:45

Control. We are still outside the top 20 and not even that, if you base it on profit instead of premium income. I do think there are consolidators with the money to snap up distressed brokers, and at under £1.00 this share price not unlike many others does look distressed. I agree I don't think its that likley, but with 3i onboard you never know. I just see it as a safty net, we are worth on paper less than 1x premium income, and thats just cheap.

[control1] 21/10/2008 22:45

Hi Squaddie, define "big boys" - we will be getting on for nearly half Towergate's size soon so, not so big. Granted, Aon a different kettle of fish and the share price is a bit vunerable but even so, I don't think that there is the money about for this right now....

[squaddie] 21/10/2008 10:02

Control1. Agree a small step down a long road. I find it hard to understand why Jelfs net profits are so far behind the industry normal. But 40% in difficult markets, has to be a step the right direction. And at this price I would not be suprised if one of the big boys, AON or Towergate had a look.

[control1] 16/10/2008 20:42

Lomax, Squaddie et all, taking the effects of the CC out of the equation for a moment, today was a step in the right direction.....