Jelf Share Discussion Threads

[control1] 16/10/2008 20:42

Lomax, Squaddie et all, taking the effects of the CC out of the equation for a moment, today was a step in the right direction.....

[control1] 06/9/2008 21:26

Well, our cross selling is going like billy-o so we are certainly making a significant contribution to the profitability of the company.

Give it another 12 months or so and I am sure we'll satisfy all requirements!

[gogoalex] 05/9/2008 08:42

with hwy being taken out consolidation continues

[gogoalex] 04/9/2008 20:54

I bought a few more of these and am regretting not studying the accounts which I got sent to me.

[lomax99] 04/9/2008 11:15

Control1 - you may well be, but one of the main aims of an aquisition strategy must be to improve margins, be that by cross selling, negotiating better deals/rates with insurers, or driving the benefits of economies of scale by streamling systems and removing 'duplicate' overhead - the benefits of turnover growth have yet to be seen on the bottom line, no doubt this will start to change.

[control1] 04/9/2008 00:14

Gentlemen - as a member of one of the more recent purchases, I can assure you that we are holding up our end!

[lomax99] 03/9/2008 23:28

squaddie. Thanks, unfortunately they have dipped already. I agree with your analysis on margins, in comparison they don't look that clever. Jelf needs to work hard(er) to integrate their various acquisitions and to 'streamline' their operations - I will be disappointed if we do not see significant progress in underlying margins in the near future. The funding and focus injected as a result of 3i's investment should help to spur them on.

[squaddie] 02/9/2008 13:23

lomax99. I'm sure you will not be disappointed. gogoalex thanks, do you hold ?. Any investment here should be regarded as one level up from a building socitey account. I only wish I had spare funds to top-up.

[gogoalex] 29/8/2008 18:05

squaddie. your post is on the button. respect.

[lomax99] 29/8/2008 16:23

Well I'm in, with purchases of 3,000 & 1,000. I thought that I had missed this one and hadn't realised that the price had pulled quite so far back. Looking foward to an interesting ride, hopefully not to much more of a downward trajectory in the short term though!

[squaddie] 28/8/2008 11:33

Control1. I guess we both work in similar circles. I work for a company that went down the 3i path some 4-5 years ago, and thankfully we managed to get free with a decent deal. I have friends that work for JLF, and it seems they are having some problems keeping senior staff after the buy-out period. This is not an uncommon problem as many smaller brokers sell to retire. The problem for Jlf is converting turnover ( commission and fees ) into profit. Income of £40.6 million profit £2.6 ?. Look at your competitors Oval £101 income £24.6m profit. VP £135 - £35 Towergate £353 - £140.5 Aon £510 - £93.5. All about 20-25% compared to JLF 6%. You can see that JLF have a lot of work turning aquired income into profit, and it is prehaps for this reason that investors are turning to companies that are more mature in the consolidation market. In regards to the others being "skint" Aon are reported to be eyeing up JLT after bidding £844 million for Benfield. Paying 10 x earnings, which would value Jlf at £26 million or about £130 per share, on the posititive side it is 3 x turnover which values jlf at @ £5.40. The real figure based on similar companies is @ 22% profit from income @ £9m x 10 £90m or @£3.50 per share. This will only happen if and when JLF improve profits. Control1, take a pay cut !!! and increase the profit. Good luck with your options, and the plan......

[control1] 27/8/2008 23:08

Squaddie - as you say, time will tell but I do have a reasonable handle on what is going on as I work for one of the companies taken over by the group and I know that our book,for example, is worth considerably better than 1 x value (no more clues).

The plan goes in stages, the next 3 year phase started about 2 months ago and our expertise will hopefully help the group achieve it's target - I am not sure why the shares are sliding quite as badly as they are but I sincerely hope for my options sake that we are closer to my estimate then yours in 2011!!

[control1] 21/8/2008 22:47

Squaddie, not going to happen mate - JLF are the ONLY one of the consolidators with LOTS of money in the bank for accquistions - the rest are all completely skint in this respect so JLF WILL be buying others but not vice versa

There is a 3 year plan in place starting now and the shares will be at £5 plus by the end of this period

[squaddie] 21/8/2008 12:24

gogoalex. Just general fall back in line with markets and on lack of news. Jlf are now 26th largest brokerage up from 33rd. Don't be suprised if one of the big boys. Aon, Oval, Marsh, Willis, or another medium sized broker makes an offer for this at some stage. £2.00 is bottem line anything under is a buy. Also remember 3i who have a big chunk of this company, would sell their granny for a profit.....

[gogoalex] 19/8/2008 15:10

bit disappointed to see this fall again

[squaddie] 31/7/2008 14:54

Well timed RSabatini..... This is a solid company that is a little late to the party. Most good quaility independent brokerages have already sold, and it is difficult to see who is left to buy at the right price. The fall back posistion is that Jelf themselves may become a take over target. The book of business they have would be very profitable if added onto one of the big market consolidators like Towergate, Oval, Giles or the VPL group. 3i will at some stage look to recover their multi (£700) million investment, normal investment time for 3i is 3-5 years which would give Jelf another 2-3 years to grow, after this time they will need to either buy 3i out, or be forced into selling, the same happened to Smart and Cook. Either way the risk of a share collasp is very limited and anything under £2.00 must be considered a real buying opportunity.

[rsabatini] 21/7/2008 10:48

Sold the lot ! Over and out. LOL. Sab.

[rsabatini] 06/7/2008 13:36

Hi all. Just what has been happening to this share of late !....and why...? LOL Sab.

[squaddie] 03/7/2008 12:21

The results confirm that you can buy revenue, but if you don't look after the staff you bought with the business they will walk and take the business with them for free. Almost 50% increase in turnover and not a penny extra profit ?. How long befire 3i pull the plug on the funding. Management need to get a grip of the situation, otherwise its all over. P/E RATIO 53.49 !!!.

[squaddie] 03/4/2008 10:15

Clarke Roxburgh are a well respected broker. An excellent buy. Jelf are doing all the right deals. How long before one of the BIG boys take notice ?.

[squaddie] 28/3/2008 11:12

Intresting interview with the CEO Alex Alway in this weeks Insurance times. Alway seems confident that he can stay "wholly owned" and in his words "buy his way into the big leaude of consolidators ". Speculation is that Jelf will tie up with either Giles or Oval, although Alway was quick to rule this out. Problem is when the CEO says it will not happen, its a bit like a football manager getting a vote of confidence from the board. Alway reckons he has £700 million available and this would indeed move Jelf into the big leauge. The problem might well be just who is left for him to buy and are the value of the remaining independents now to high. Intresting times ahead.

[bigman] 25/3/2008 08:50

well they have no debt now. I think that were destined to be bought but now with the funding deal they will look to snap up a few smaller fish. results were good but they will have to spend money to continue their growth and that is why they have been proided with it. this company will grow and grow. all on board for the ride.

[squaddie] 11/12/2007 10:30

Bigman. Jelf a big consolidator ?. Who are you kidding, they are small fry with to much debt. No doubt they will be bought out by one of the real big boys, but not before the share price reflects the debt they carry. £2 Million profit on £26 turnover and pe ratio of 36. Share price should be 150 ish.

[bigman] 14/10/2007 10:52

mail on sunday says towergate bidding for brokernetwork (BNH) a consolidator similar to jelf, so the big fish consolidators like jelf,CBG and brokernetwork are starting to be attractive to the BIG fish who will gobble them up good style and at a big price, i can see this interest going accross the sector and we could see over £3 before too long. IMHO