Jelf Share Discussion Threads

[sper] 05/3/2007 09:04

Think it was about to move in the right direction until the market generally slid. I'm always a bit tetchy when a share just keeps nudging down but the general market conditions do add a different perspective to this

[rsabatini] 03/3/2007 10:58

Why the steady drift down from mid Jan? Tempted to take profits if it continues. Any views? Sab.

[bigman] 19/2/2007 09:42

GS I agree with you on per and no doubt a few more acquistions to follow as well, so i am looking for north of 325p on this before september and steady growth from here as i just cant see a down side
you cant have enough insurance in youtr portfolio

[green sand] 09/2/2007 12:57

Yup sper, reckon you got it about right. There would have been a bigger move if it was a cluster of sells.

Just had a look at the latest consensus which have been revised as predicted by stakeadder to Pre Tax £6m with eps 17p for 07 and £7.2m and 20.5 for 08.

At 240p per is 14 dropping to 11.7 for next year. That is just too low for the growth rate. Not sure that we will see a per of 20 but I can see the per of 14 slowly being applied to the 08 eps, or quickly depending on news flow.

Good luck

GS

[sper] 09/2/2007 12:15

Good be either the placing of the 300000 or further sales. I think we might have seen a bit of a drop yesterday had they all been sales, although cannot rule it out on the fact it dropped this morning.

Even if they were all sales I dont think we should be overly worried. There is no sign of consistent selling today, continuing the trend. IMHO JLF is a good bet for the future providing they can integrate effectively and/or just maximise their economies of scale

[green sand] 09/2/2007 10:49

Agreed sper, without any further info it looks as though somebody got screwed. An isolated director sale should not be a concern he still has 10%. However I can't get a handle on the other deals at around the same time. If they represent the placing of the 300k then great and somebody has got a good deal. If they turn out to be a cluster of director/major sales then get ready. I favour the former rather than the latter but not sure if it is just wishful thinking.

Good luck

GS

[sper] 09/2/2007 08:24

Even more interesting that someone had to pay a premium for 5k when a director offloaded hundreds of thousands. Bad deal for the punter perhaps?

[sper] 08/2/2007 13:23

just noticed that too, agree v interesting, 5k not a lot at all

[green sand] 08/2/2007 13:14

Somebody has had to pay a premium to get 5k, interesting!

[rsabatini] 06/2/2007 12:41

Thanks sper for your comment. Saw it first in 'Investment for Growth' newsletter.

[sper] 06/2/2007 11:53

I think gearing or the chance of greater dilution might be holding this back but IMHO this looks a good bet for growth over the medium term.

[rsabatini] 05/2/2007 11:35

Am asking same Qs re share price drop. Bought at 175 in June and am thinking of locking in profits...BUT.....not quite sure if that is wise after such good results. May sell if goes below 230. Any views our there. Thanks. Sab

[sper] 31/1/2007 11:39

interesting drops off the back of excellent results and a good acquisition. This came up on my radar because we use SPS and have continually been impressed by them.

How likely are the drops of the last few days to be down to profit taking, the share price has substantially exceeded a lot of expectations and there may be a little concern for integration of all these stand alone businesses.

[ohbugger] 29/1/2007 18:28

Yeah all looks good, apart from the chart.
Why the big drop today ?

[stakeadder] 25/1/2007 19:19

Well, well, what a fantastic set of results !!

Highlights:

Turnover more than doubled to £25.1 Million

Pre-tax profits up 148% to £3.3Million

EPS up 65% to 12.4p

Margins increased to 13.1%.

Corporate clients up 85%

All of which I might add, easily beats estimates. (estimates were: pre-tax £3.2M and eps of 11.9p)

I also like Alex Always statement of " we continue to focus on building organic growth through cross referrals and engaging new clients."

Well, they are certainly doing that alright with corporate clients up 85% !!

And I also like the bit " market conditions are strong..."

Very encouraging. But what does it for me is this bit from Christopher Jelf himself....

" The Jelf story of dramatic growth in the last few years will have been interesting to the external observer, but it is the opportunities for the future that really continue to excite myself and the whole team."

'Opportunities for the future that EXCITES them' !! It excites me and all !!

[stakeadder] 23/1/2007 18:53

To my mind risks are two-fold...

1) Over expansion

2) Slowing insurance rates.

Point two first: Company has already said that 'some' rates are softening in last trading update. This would normally be a worry, but its not across the board so it shouldnt be a problem. For instance, Some commercial rates, motor and particularly health is booming so should more than ofset other 'weaker' areas. Also company hopes (and is) offseting this too with better precedures and intergration of new acquisitions.

Which leads into the first point...

'Growth by aggressive acquisition' could be a problem in 'product' type businesses ( for instance, software) but Jelf is a 'people' type business so its very shrewd to expand rapidly by increasing debt BUT in order to gain 'brains' and more importantly substantial order books. As long as orders and potential orders are bigger than debt thats the main thing.

This company has a long way to go imo, with a possible bid coming soon ? who knows ??

[latinlink] 22/1/2007 18:45

i see you all talking only about the positive points: What are the main risk to this companies?
I think one of the main risk is 'growth by agressive acquisition.' Suppose it overpays or the company does not integrate in to the group. However on that note, the last couple of acquisition made by the managament have been splendid. But does anyone know where the money to pay for these companies comes from?

ill wait until the results to take a position, but the outcome is likely to be positive.

[rsabatini] 17/1/2007 19:48

Hi s. You are absolutely right re vol. and it has had a v.good run. Look forward to the results next Thurs.Sab.

[stakeadder] 17/1/2007 18:14

sp drop of no concern to me whatsoever.

It was dropped on very low volume, hence very little selling.

sp is bound to flicker about for few days before next thursdays cracking set of results is released. This is sure to arouse yet more interest in this ecellent share.

[rsabatini] 17/1/2007 09:36

Hi s. Any idea re 3 % share price drop today. Just profit taking and / or something else. Sab

[rsabatini] 11/1/2007 20:00

Hi s. Thanks for your post. Maybe we are the only PI's ! Sab.

[stakeadder] 11/1/2007 18:44

Hi R

I wondered if anyone was still holding this one.

I've held since june too, and also topped up my holding last september and again a week ago. Can you believe that !!! What bought MORE, I hear you say !!

I certainly will NOT sell out as yet while JLF is undergoing its much deserved re-rating.

Directors are buying and are holding their shares as tightly as they possibly can, so I am too ! I am not letting go.

Imo we should see earnings for this september '07 upgraded from the current consensus of 14.65p to maybe around 17p - ish. And I would therefore expect a pe ratio of above 20 times and a share price of £3.40 plus, in the next few weeks would not be out of the question. This would still be cheap on a sep '08 multiple.

[rsabatini] 11/1/2007 15:45

Hi All. Any views on current / future situation ? Bought in June and am happy to hold at this rate of share price growth. Good luck to all holders. Sab.

[stakeadder] 02/1/2007 18:14

Yet another acquisition with the purchase of 'John Wason'.

The growth just keeps on coming !

[stakeadder] 27/12/2006 18:29

I would say alot more to go with share price ..

1) Results to be released soon can only be excellent.
2) Directors are tucking away their shares in their sipps for a rainy day.
3) MM's short of stock, now there's a thought !! ;-)