Fisher (james) & Sons Share Discussion Threads

[roddiemac2] 01/10/2015 14:32

The writer of the misleading article is one Royston Wild. Anyone using the Motley Fool might point out that he has made himself look like one. ---Question everything you read .

[illiswilgig] 01/10/2015 12:13

Not only does FSJ not build rigs they also stressed at the recent interims that their oil related activities are primarily maintenance and production related rather than upstream exploration.

FSJ expects maintence spend to increase in the short term as it cannot be postponed for long.

FSJ currently trading at 14.5 x forecast earnings for the current year.

Fine for a company with limited long term growth prospects but it significantly undervalues FSJ in my opinion.

Trouble is in the short term the share price might do anything.

[roddiemac2] 01/10/2015 09:08

bouleversee,

Quite apart from the oil price, we have nervous stock markets. The problems that caused the crash in 2008 have not gone away: credit bubbles and inflated asset prices .(Just look at property in the UK: crazy: a rigged deck )

Fair value ? A better question might be -at what price would I top up ? I would be very tempted at 900p, and if markets crashed I would be a big buyer.

I see FSJ as a well diversified company , both geographically and in terms of its services and products. Some of the group companies operate in high growth markets.

FSJ has not fallen into the trap of being too centralised.They don`t interfere too much with the daily running of group companies, but back them with their financial muscle and experience, and benefit from Synergies . The organisation is therefore flexible and can adapt quickly.

[bouleversee] 01/10/2015 06:32

Roddiemac -

Many thanks for that very informative post. Fantastic company really. Makes one wonder even more why they have come back so much. I suppose they had just got a bit ahead of themselves but though the eps were down in the interims, not disastrously so, and other aspects were up so the drop seems unjustified. Am going to buy more in my ISA and then sell some non-ISA when the share price recovers which I feel sure it will in due course and it might be a good time to give more to the grandchildren; the last lot hasn't done them much good so far. This volatile market would turn me into a trader if I had the time but I haven't so will just sit it out in most cases. If it's not too daft a question, what do you think a fair value price for FSJ is? I suppose we need a crystal ball to see the finals.

[marvelman] 30/9/2015 22:52

Yes dlku do keep up the good work.....although Roddie's two posts may help you to better your approach.

[roddiemac2] 30/9/2015 22:23

dlku,

Thank you for your well argued post.

[roddiemac2] 30/9/2015 22:17

These are the companies in the Fisher Group---

Group companies
Divex, Fendercare Marine ,Fisher Offshore, James Fisher Aerospace, James Fisher Defence, James Fisher Everard, James Fisher Marine Services, James Fisher Mass Flow Excavation, James Fisher Mimic, James Fisher Shipping Services, James Fisher NDT, James Fisher Nuclear, James Fisher Rumic, Maritime Engineers, Osiris Marine Services, Prolec, RMSpumptools, Scan Tech, ASScanTech Offshore, Scotload, Strainstall, Subsea Vision, Testconsult, Subtech Group ,National Hyperbaric Centre

To the best of my knowledge , none of these is engaged in rig building. They do, however, provide a very diverse range of services, not all dependent on oil.

[roddiemac2] 30/9/2015 21:47

bouleversee,

An exert from the article ----

" I believe a reading closer to the bargain barometer of 10 times would be a fairer reflection of the risks facing the rigbuilder."

I was not aware that FSJ was a builder of rigs ! It seems the writer either knows something I don`t or simply has not done his or her homework : best ignored.

[bouleversee] 30/9/2015 19:35

Just came across this article on Motley Fool and was surprised when I checked current price how much FSJ had fallen recently:



All a bit depressing as it's my largest holding. Perhaps I should have rebalanced after all. I hadn't realised that the oil price would have such an impact, hopefully only temporarily. Debating whether to buy more and further unbalance my p/f.

[phillis] 18/9/2015 16:34

approaching reasonable value once more

[emeraldzebra] 16/9/2015 10:09

Illisillgig - a fine and v nicely balanced analysis. I agree - will just take a little time. If you get a moment or two, Can you please let me know the other main Co's that you follow - as am looking for a bit of inspiration and have a modest bequest that i am looking to invest in the short term for the medium to long term. I am v keen on DS Smith and Plexus which already involved with - so don't bother with them ! Many thanks indeed.

[illiswilgig] 15/9/2015 11:39

I don't see the share price going far in either direction right at the moment - in absence of further news. This is one where I take no news as good news.

I've taken another look at the earnings forecasts.

The recent results anticipated h2 earnings to be 'slightly' below last years - so certainly a profit warning in the sense that this years profits will be lower than last years. But the current brokers consensus looks like an over reaction to me.

With 30p in H1 and last years H2 of 49.2p 'slightly' below would mean something like 45p - lower and it would be 'significantly' below? That would put this FY on 75p.

Current broker consensus is 66.7p - which would imply 36.7p eps in H2 - that seems a lot more than slightly below 49.2p?

But that could just be blind optimism on my part so I looed at the perfomance of each division.

My own estimate of earnings in each division for H2, with growth in tankships, specialised technical and marine support 'returning to growth' and offshore oil stabilised is 42p in H2 and FY of 72p which is just in at the upper end of the range that Rivaldo quotes.

That puts FSJ on a P/E of 15.3 at the current price more if you take the lower end of the forecast P/E.

It's somewhat expensive if you view it a specialist technical services company with a large exposure to oil.

But the management team has a proven record of steering the company into higher margin niches in growing areas and exiting less profitable areas.

I think the perception of the company as heavily exposed to oil is wrong and creates an overly negative view of the companies prospects which will keep the share price depressed in the short term. Offshore oil now accounts for only around 20% of profits likely in h2 - though this could recover swiftly with an upturn in maintenance and support work.

Meanwhile the company is a leader in it's niche areas and has been taking the opportunity to buy assets at good value in the recent downturn.

With 3 divisions growing, acquisitions in technical services and marine support I can see a small upwards rerating possible with estimates rising for FY 2016

I doubt it will happen in the short term, but with announcements on major contracts possible it's hard to time - and I'm useless at timing anyway so I'm happy to hold, including the ones I bought recently at below 1000p, and await the return to growth,

disclosure - clearly I am bullish on FSJ! I have been for 10 years or more......

cheers

[apad] 14/9/2015 13:07

WEIR recently ejected from FT100 too.
I'm now out of FSJ (small loss) & HTG (small profit) for the same reasons as riv.
Both are on my watchlist.
apad

[rivaldo] 14/9/2015 12:44

Thanks for the comments above chaps. As you know I no longer hold here, but FSJ is a high quality company and as such is high on my watchlist.

I do think posters here might want in particular to know that FSJ has been ejected from the FTSE250 and that broker targets/forecasts have been reduced since no-one else seems to post this kind of important info.

It's important to see both sides. I myself am usually a very long-term investor (note my thread on VLE if you're interested!), but I did feel that FSJ was now trading on too high a rating, and I still feel that's the case given new forecasts of between 66p-73p EPS going forward for 2016 and the lack of growth therein from 2015.

But I'm quite prepared to be wrong and for the share price to sit where it is for some time without falling to my target price range given that FSJ probably enjoys good institutional support.

[roddiemac2] 11/9/2015 19:29

3800,

I have probably not made myself very clear. Who is to say what a reasonable PE ratio is ? FSJ has no comparators .I will be very surprised to see the shares drift much , unless markets take a real bashing: always a possibility.

[roddiemac2] 10/9/2015 11:16

3800,

I appreciate what you say. Rivaldo is a thorough researcher of stocks. My intention was not to dispute his comments , but to point out that perhaps investors here, including institutions, are unusually loyal ( not without good reason ).If the shares drop , I will add to my holding.

I don`t think that FSJ will make ten times my money in the next ten years, but I do think that there is huge potential in many of the markets they address. In the meantime , my holding is of a size that I can almost live off the dividend payout.
It suits me very well not to jump in and out of stocks trying to maximise my gains .The size of my holdings make it difficult to do so. I aim to stick with a good story for the long term. I was very overweight in FSJ from the outset, and the current dividend return represents more than 20% of my original capital outlay: beats trading .

[bouleversee] 09/9/2015 20:36

That's me, Roddiemac. Far and away my best investment, now spread around the family. Wish I had had more in at the outset, though I did add at one point when they were down; might do so again though that would make me even more overweight. Persimmon, Clarkson, British Polythene, Clarkson and recently Victoria (carpets not oil) have also done well but Fisher is the star, albeit dragged down recently because of the oil situation. As for the likes of Shell, Glaxo and the miners, total disaster so far as I am concerned. Give me the smaller, niche companies every time.

[redartbmud] 03/9/2015 16:19

rivaldo

I do like people who look on the bright side.

red

[roddiemac2] 03/9/2015 16:14

??? You might get lucky rivaldo. you might not.

[rivaldo] 03/9/2015 11:40

FSJ have now been dropped out of the FTSE250 following last night's FTSE rejig after the poor results:



And Canaccord have dropped their price target to 1050p:



The latest broker forecasts from Singer and Canaccord are for around 66p EPS this year and 66p-69p EPS next year.

I'd say a price of around 900p-1000p would be fair value at present given the above.

[bouleversee] 26/8/2015 14:30

In today's Times, Tempus is advising "Hold for the yield". LOL.

Had intended to buy today but no time this morning and with such a jump will wait to see if there is a set back.