Ixico Share Discussion Threads

[chrisdgb] 13/3/2024 08:41

Some kind of industry investor would be a nice option, as a result of a contract..?

[40 fathoms] 13/3/2024 07:58

Patience and CASH. Drawdown in cash highlighted in today's TU means it is getting critical and hard to see now how they will be able to avoid a CR.

[chrisdgb] 08/3/2024 10:38

Looks like patience required here.....

[casholaa] 16/2/2024 11:38

"Ixico PLC - London-based precision analytics company working to advance investigational therapies for neurological diseases - Revenue for the year that ended on September 30 falls 23% to GBP6.7 million from GBP8.6 million the year before. Company swings to GBP1.4 million pretax loss following a GBP885,000 profit. Total operating expenses increase to GBP5.1 million from GBP5.0 million. Ixico says revenue drop was expected and caused by the now-realised impact of clients ceasing multiple large "failed" trials across 2021 and early 2022. Expects to deliver roughly flat revenue in the current financial year before returning to growth in 2025."

[chrisdgb] 16/2/2024 10:42

Well this is fun.............

[40 fathoms] 27/1/2024 12:35

Well Giulio is going, it was clear all the fight had gone out of him so it is not a huge surprise as he has not been very effective but has been very, very expensive. It is going to take a year for him to leave and there will have to overlap with another expensive (but hopefully less so) CEO, so there will be double costs for a while.

CFO also needs to be replaced with one that costs half as much and then you would have clean foundations and things can start to look a lot better. Also, unless they are able to sign some large, new, contracts and or cut their R&D spend very soon then they are going to need more cash.

With the right CEO and a much less ambitions strategy it would not be hard to get to a position where it is making a sustanible EBIT of GBP 2 or GBP 3 million per year. That is worth a share price of 50p in my view, provided they do not increase the share count. They also need to give up on AD and ARIA as they are not in the race. Double down on Huntingdon's and pick up the focus on some of the other less competitive CNS indications.

If we see this or a similar strategy put in place then I am a buyer. If this does not happen this is going to bump around between 8p and 15p for as far as the eye can see.

[up4itt] 26/1/2024 04:22

The selling is attributable to the fact that I had just bought in prior to the drop in the share price. The correlation seldom fails.

[chrisdgb] 25/1/2024 16:01

Is this AGM related selling?? Did they make comments??

[jimtech] 08/12/2023 11:02

Guilio was obviously frustrated with the "harsh" lowly company valuation.
But then there is not much to get excited about if they are expecting a flat 2024 so share price may well sink further.
I thought the fundraising comments were theoretical but you are right, as you point out, they were not dismissed out of hand.

[40 fathoms] 07/12/2023 23:43

Gosh the IMC Company call was downbeat, Giulio is normally so enthusiastic but he came across as totally disinterested, it was almost like he has already checked out. Based on this performance I would not be surprised to see him move on in the near future.

I was also a bit shocked to hear them say we are thinking about raising capital rather than the usual we have no need for capital, which based on my reading of the balance sheet would appear to be the case for the foreseeable term.

[40 fathoms] 21/11/2023 22:40

@Chrisgb - I think there are actually a good number of people. There is a decent business in there somewhere, however it will never come to light under the current management and board.

The Chairman and the Board are stale and wholly unsuited to drive this forward and the C Suite is insanely overpaid and if truth be told unqualified to run this business.

The solution is pretty simple. Cut costs, streamline R&D efforts, give up on braking in to the AD market and focus on the 400 other types of dementia which is very lightly server by the market.

[chrisdgb] 17/11/2023 11:03

Who would want to take this over....??

[40 fathoms] 05/10/2023 07:27

There is the trading update ....

In summary, soft this year, soft next year and a feeling that it might be a little less soft the year after next. Only hard forecasts are losses and negative cash flow .... the word profit was not included in the TU. Pretty Grim.

[chrisdgb] 30/8/2023 11:31

Trading update soon..........?

[40 fathoms] 19/7/2023 09:03

I think no one cares because this contract is to be executed over 4 years. They are currently recognising their order book at @ 650k to 750K per month. This 4 year contract will only lead to a revenue recognition of @30k per month (I am working on a straight line recognition in order to make the point) over a 4 year period.

To grow revenue they need a lot more of these medium sized contracts or a couple of very large ones and they need them soon. It is clear to everyone that they need to cut their inflated C suite pay and the board costs and they need to make the breakthrough in AD, as these are by far the largest and longest trials in the mainstream CNS trials arena and would be transformative. However, it is very, very difficult to break in and will take considerable time.

In the meantime they are treading water at best and the prospect of little to no revenue growth, continued cash drawdowns and ongoing losses are very real until they start winning, either in volume or size, significant contracts.

[chrisdgb] 18/7/2023 11:47

Nice to see contract news.......not that anyone seems to care....!

[40 fathoms] 23/6/2023 12:27

@Jane Deer.

Any market surveillance in AD would be to identify ARIA H and ARIA E in patients (not as a diagnostic) that are given monoclonal antibodies that clear Amyloid Beta. The PDUFA date for a full approval of Lecanamab is 6th July and at that point we will know, if approved, what requirements the FDA will impose for market surveillance. If they were to win anything in the near term, this is the opportunity, particularly as they have provided the Assessa platform for progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML)in conjunction with Biogen, who is also the co-developer of Lecanamab. So you would think this would represent the most likely live opportunity.

That said Eisai and Biogen have been preparing for this approval and subsequent role out for years now and have put in place the infrastructure to support and monitor this rollout. I would be very surprised indeed, if now at this late stage, they announce something exclusive with Ixico for Lecanamab. As you might be aware, last year Adhuelm also a Biogen AD Thereaputic, was approved by the FDA last year. Although it has been a complete disaster commercially, there was post market surveillance requirements imposed by the FDA and I note that their was no post market surveillance contract for Ixico.

There is a possibility they could win something with Lilly for Donanemab, which will likely be approved and rolled out 1H next year. However, as with Biogen/Eisai, given the scale of preparation that goes in to a drug launch of this type, I think we would know by now if they were likely to gain a contract here.

My feeling is in the longer run they might pick up some work in this regard by contracting with individual hospitals or health systems. However, this is likely 2 or more years away and it will be slow to build, in particular as they have no healthcare sales network.

While a rabbit could be pulled from the hat, I think the reality is that the next 12 to 18 months are going to be difficult for Ixico. If they can shepherd their cash then there is a good possibility of salvation after that. If they cannot, the board and the C suite are crazily paid, then they are going to need to raise a decent (in comparison to market cap) amount of cash with all of the share price pain that entails.

[jane deer] 20/6/2023 17:37

40 Fathoms

I could not agree with you more. Ixico has been talking up the AD opportunity for a couple of years but so far, Ixico has not shown that it can win meaningful contracts in the AD space. On the recent ImC call, Ixico said they were seeing if they could win a "market surveillance" contract for one of the approved FDA AD drugs. If they could this would potentially be a game-changer. Obviously, as an outsider, I have no idea whether this is possible but I suspect it is a bit of a long-shot and does not seem consistent with the previous strategy of trying to win Phase I and Phase II trials and hope (on playing the numbers game) that one or two of them will turn into Phase IIIs.

[40 fathoms] 14/6/2023 09:01

This is a positive, as it will allow them to tread water for a while and stop their book to bill ratio turning negative. However to create forward momentum within the business they need 2 or more contracts of a similar in size before the end of this year.

It should be noted, that once again this contract is in Huntingdon's, a condition where they are already dominant and which is seeing limited growth in pharma investment. Ixico will only be truly transformed once they make a commercial breakthrough in Alzheimer's. To the extent they are able to do this, it would appear that this is still a number of years away.

[chrisdgb] 14/6/2023 08:48

Nice to see a contract.......

[halfpenny] 23/5/2023 14:24

Oh Dear, looks like Trouble Ahead!!

Risk increasing Rapidly as large orders not coming soo enough.

Waiting !!

[halfpenny] 10/5/2023 16:12

IXI expected to exceed expectations as demand for its AI Product is huge.

Share price needs to get above 33p to reduce takeover target potential.

Great to add at these levels which wont stay at this level for long. As they say cheap as chips after the results today. Rapid rises in the pipeline. I say add if you can at these ridiculous levels.

Happy Days Ahead