Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[tom306] 23/11/2008 14:59

Itis have been trying to generate overseas revenues for a number of years but the segmentation analysis they produce show that overseas revenues are still miniscule compared to the UK. IMHO they will not compensate for quite some time, if ever. In the meantime, TomTom and Navteq are making big strides forward internationally with real products. Their best, and perhaps only, chance is to be taken out by a bigger player but this is not exactly a seller's market.

[lucky punter] 22/11/2008 04:01

Granted the results may be worse than they were at 50p a share but they are not now 50p a share. The most important part of the results will be progress made in the many parts of the world where Itis have grassroots interests. They are in the process of establishing service bases in many countries using local partners. This will be many times more profitable through royalty type payments than the current set up but it will take time to deliver.
In fact I would be concerned if the management said that everything was OK and that the crisis did not effect them, Itis are at 13p for a reason and I have no problem with that.
As I said I will add over the next 3 to 6 months with a view to the current crisis easing or at least the market becoming accustom to it.

[russianlinesman] 21/11/2008 21:32

problem is lp results to 30 Sep will be poor and those to next 31 March even worse. Not only loss of 2 contracts but new car sales falling off a cliff will make a big dent in the numbers.

It's a recovery play next year, but I think the share price could stay near current levels for another 12 months.

just imho

[lucky punter] 21/11/2008 12:30

Just doing some research here as I have not viewed Itis for a long time after selling out last year. The posts 288 to 290 are slightly missing the point. Itis have not been named as a partner/contributor but Hampshire CC are supplied data by Itis so infact,Itis have a direct input into the project. see the case study section under resources on the website.
This company is heavily undervalued at present and whilst the results next week may reflect tougher times the share price has already given holders the bad news with the drop from the 40's. There is huge growth potential ahead with the worldwide rollout and this factor could catapult this out of the doldrums if the market shows signs of recovery.
I have bought in today for a small stake and will add over the next 3-6 months.

[russianlinesman] 26/9/2008 15:00

The share price has fallen from 80p to 20p in a couple of years, so a fall to 17p/19p is not the market treating it as a shock profits warning. The market had guessed this already.

All I'm saying is if they are still cash positive, they may well be able to sustain the dividend. And that is a very tidy yield.

[tom306] 25/9/2008 08:19

RL
They might not have said it but the market treated the statement as a profit warning and rightly so. They made clear that trading in the UK was "difficult" and that they had not been able to make up the revenues lost with the Vauxhall and DfT contracts. They also reported growing investment overseas but added the benefit will come "next year".

[utterly pointless] 25/9/2008 07:48

I guess they didn't say it because they hadn't given much advice about earnings previously. I read this as backtracking on their promise of jam later today in the last statement; it's now quite clearly jam tomorrow. Not very strong management, frankly, that marches the share price up the hill only to have to march it back down again.

[russianlinesman] 24/9/2008 22:05

but they didn't say that results would be worse than expected. Cash positive with strong balance sheet - if dividend stays at 1.5p, yield is 8-9%.

[tom306] 24/9/2008 18:30

Looks like a bad set of figures are on the way. First the loss of revenue in the UK and then high investment overseas where the revenue base is very much smaller.



RNS Number : 2058E
ITIS Holdings PLC
24 September 2008

The following statement will be read by Sir Trevor Chinn, Chairman of ITIS Holdings plc ("ITIS" or the "Company"), at the AGM to be held
at the offices of ITIS, Station House, Stamford New Road, Altrincham, Cheshire WA14 1EP at 2.00pm today, 24th September 2008.
"Trading in the UK in the first half of our financial year has been difficult as a result of high fuel prices leading to less traffic
congestion and the impact on our RDS-TMC revenues of the rapid decline of car sales since June. It has also proved challenging to replace
the revenues from the two contract losses announced last year.
We have reduced costs at Trafficlink and believe that the consolidation in the radio industry will further strengthen our performance in that market. We remain confident that we can build on a very successful operation to continue
to enhance the quality of our traffic information and our product offerings.
Our international business continues to develop at a fast pace and we have made significant investments in people and operations to
enable us to capitalise on the demand for our services. Operations in Asia have been progressing well, particularly in China and Singapore.
We have begun to deploy our technology in Ireland, South Africa and Australia. We continue to receive regular enquiries from all over the world and are at various stages of positive negotiation in a number of countries. We are
confident we will start to see the benefits of this
investment next year.
The Company remains cash positive with a strong balance sheet enabling us to continue our planned investment programme in order to
maintain our clear market leadership position, providing our customers with high quality and innovative traffic information. Whilst the cyclical downturn has led to challenging market conditions in the UK, we remain excited about
the significant market potential around the world for traffic information, especially in some of the fast developing countries where we already have a presence."

[monty panesar] 25/8/2008 22:42

Why don't the management take it private for 35p? Seems a reasonable business being mispriced by the market.

[grgkecer] 15/7/2008 09:01

The effect of the capital reduction will also be to create a substantial
distributable reserve which will be available for the payment of future
dividends.

[utterly pointless] 10/7/2008 15:41

I now think (for what it's worth) that (a) I am wrong (b) flyfisher is right and (c) (probably) they didn't mean to use the word interim in the February RNS

[tom306] 10/7/2008 14:44

Good spot, Utterly. Curious and curiouser - so which was it and why the confusion?

[utterly pointless] 10/7/2008 11:51

Oh, I do like a good row.

Following is the RNS for the divvi paid in February. You will see that the RNS describes the divvi as an INTERIM divvi. Against that, russianlinesman and flyfisher, the recent finals say that the Feb divvi was in respect of the 2006/7 financial year. I wonder whether they have backtracked in the finals (possibly for the reason outlined by TOM306)?

"RNS Number:2676N ITIS Holdings PLC 05 February 2008

ITIS Holdings PLC ("ITIS" or the "Company")

Payment of dividend and cancellation of share premium account

The Board of ITIS is pleased to announce that, following the High Court approval given on 23 January 2008 of the resolution passed at the Company's extraordinary general meeting on 22 November 2007 for the elimination of an accumulated deficit on its profit and loss account of GBP 33,520,972 by the cancellation of the whole of the amount standing to the credit of its share premium account, an interim dividend of 1.5p per share will be paid on 29 February 2008 to all shareholders on the register at the close of business on 15 February 2008."

[russianlinesman] 10/7/2008 11:34

flyfisher is correct, the 1.5p we already had was last year's final dividend, and this year's 1.5p is what has been announced. There is not yet an interim dividend.

[flyfisher] 10/7/2008 11:28

utterly , the way i read it is that the 1.5 p div paid at the interim stage was the 06/07 final div, they had to get court approval before paying it , hence the delay.

Following the High Court approval given on 23 January 2008 of the resolution passed at the Company's extraordinary general meeting on 22
November 2007 for the elimination of an accumulated deficit on its profit and loss account of £33,520,972 by the cancellation of the whole of the amount standing to the credit of its share premium account, a dividend of 1.5p per
share was paid on 29 February 2008 in respect of the 2006/7 year.

The Board of ITIS will declare a final dividend each year. The Board will recommend to shareholders at the Company's forthcoming AGM that a final dividend for the year ended 31 March 2008 of 1.5p per will be paid on 29
September 2008 to the members on the register at the close of business on 5 September 2008.

regards

[utterly pointless] 10/7/2008 10:05

Tom306... I hear your point about dividend cover and take it as a strong vote of confidence in the company's performance. As you will know as well as I do, it is pretty catastrophic for the share price of companies when they are forced to cut their dividend and I don't think management would put themselves in a position where they thought there was any material risk of that happening. I can quite see that UK growth may not increase hugely - the falls in new car purchases counteracting the commodisation (i.e. growth) of the sorts of product ITH offers - but the international growth picture is much healthier...

[tom306] 10/7/2008 09:54

You're right, Utterly. I had expected the final dividend to boost the share price but instead it is down a third since the results were announced in June. The final dividend will eat up £1.5m of the near £2m they had in cash and perhaps that and the current profit stall in the UK explains the drop? Another possible explanation is that the market may doubt they can match the dividend this year. They made £3.2m after tax last time and paid a dividend of nearly £3m. With the UK hit by the loss of the GM and DfT contracts and the £0.5m increase in fixed costs announced by them with the results, the overseas business better accelerate if they are to pay out £3m this year.

[utterly pointless] 10/7/2008 09:12

It is not incorrect. It is absolutely correct. An interim dividend of 1.5p was paid in February 2008 and a final dividend has been declared of a further 1.5p to be paid in September. That makes 3p giving a yield of more than 10%.

[flyfisher] 10/7/2008 09:00

utterly, your yield figure is incorrect, itis has so far only paid a final dividend.
good luck.

[russianlinesman] 07/7/2008 17:59

"Over 2,100 journeys were made on routes around Hampshire including the M27, M3, A3 and the notorious M25 to provide data for analysis. Additional speed data came from the British Highways Agency data to form the background knowledge needed within the AI system."

2,100 journeys! and that's the reason for the price fall. Er...and ITH and (dare I say it TFC) have databases with millions of journeys on them. Cadre works with special devices, as opposed to being inside TomToms (TomTom's P2P system is basically the same thing)

IMHO Price has falled as perception that ex-growth UK, and overseas revenues will take time to come on line.

And an awful lot of AIM stocks being pummeled at the moment. Presumably there's a bunch of PIs selling their shares due to nervousness - and a few using the proceeds to pay down the mortgage.

Some AIM stocks will become very vulnerable to M&A activity, be it takeover or MBO, and I'd say there'd be a few sniffing round ITH if it stays here very long. If not that, then Stuart Marks will be trying to raise the money to buy back the 70% back he doesn't still own.

[utterly pointless] 07/7/2008 11:16

interesting post, hew, thanks... One could, of course, always ask ITIS Investor Relations dept. They tend to be quite helpful to PIs where the co. has a small cap and is illiquid (basically because they know that PIs make the market)...

[hew] 07/7/2008 10:55

CADRE ??

Lots of coverage (try Google) in a tone implying that nonesuch exists already!

HOWEVER I don't see ITIS mentioned in the list of developers.



" The project is being developed by a consortium, consisting of the University of Portsmouth, ComSine, Smartcom Software, the Transport Research Laboratory, ViaMichelin and Hampshire County Council. "

A factor behind the share price slump? (Technical mentions been about all year, but now seeing a practical product.)

[utterly pointless] 07/7/2008 09:12

There was pretty consistent selling until Thursday... and this is not a particularly liquid stock. I guess I rather attributed it to that. Certainly some buys on Thursday stopped the rot (touch wood). It seems fantastically cheap to me - a good growth story in a market ripe for consolidation and paying a 10% dividend...

[tom306] 07/7/2008 09:08

Down 40% in the last two months is not a good sign for a profitable company, paying a dividend and with cash in the bank. It was particularly weak last week with no apparent reason. Have their brokers published revised forecasts?