Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ithaca Energy LSE:IAE London Ordinary Share CA4656761042 COM SHS NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 103.25p 103.25p 103.75p - - - 0.00 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 140.5 -221.5 -23.8 - 427.39

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Date Time Title Posts
19/1/201716:14ITHACA - North Sea Oil19,576.00
01/1/201711:36ITHACA - Chart Thread892.00
26/11/201611:07Ithaca Energy INC. : An oil giant in the making4.00
12/3/201507:33Malcolm Graham-Wood , Oil Analysis, bullish on Ithica Energy2.00
20/12/201309:36IAE North Sea Oil "Substantial" Discovery. Now for Development35.00

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Ithaca Energy (IAE) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
19/01/2017 17:12:29103.5096,58999,969.62O
19/01/2017 17:01:16103.599,83510,188.16O
19/01/2017 16:54:28103.6623,98724,863.80O
19/01/2017 16:52:03103.737,5007,779.71O
19/01/2017 16:51:36103.6012,95713,422.87O
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Ithaca Energy Daily Update: Ithaca Energy is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IAE. The last closing price for Ithaca Energy was 103.25p.
Ithaca Energy has a 4 week average price of 100.57p and a 12 week average price of 88.92p.
The 1 year high share price is 106p while the 1 year low share price is currently 0p.
There are currently 413,932,372 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 1,420,046 shares. The market capitalisation of Ithaca Energy is £427,385,174.09.
gersemi: Delays happen in the real world but always take advantage of price weakness in IAE due to the simple fact that when Stella is fully operational I believe we will see re-rate in the company's valuation. These delays are an opportunity to profit not a hindrance. The IAE price always fights back
bountyhunter: As Whiskey said if the FPF-1 had returned to Gdansk to avoid the storms I'm pretty sure the share price would have taken a downturn. If this had happened without being aware of the location of the FPF-1 then the cause of such a share price reaction would have been a mystery. Having said that of course the Brent price is also a very significant factor but then I guess that's not worth watching either. Personally I'd rather be aware of what's happening before the share price reacts not afterwards. Also there is no guarantee as to what is going to happen with a platform on tow as can be seen by recent news. If you're not interested in the FPF-1 then just ignore those posts.
whiskeyinthejar: You can just act on the chart if you want, but the share price is acting on the movements of the rig. IMO the share price would have suffered badly if the rig had been moved back to Gdansk to avoid the storms. So sensible I think to act on rig movements then. The new production imo will get priced-in at varying stages to varying extents in advance. Because markets look forward. When rig arrives at Stella, when the rig is anchored, when testing completes, when production starts etc. are all milestones. So worthwhile imo watching for these stages, not just waiting for project to complete.
fsawatcher: IAE was shorted on tsx a few weeks ago coz those involved also bet oil price fall from 54 to 41 oil price has hit 41 now and it bounced on friday which saw some shorts close there a lot of shorts still open which mean if oil keep goin back up so does IAE's share price IAE sensitive to oil price. Oil price drop by 20% and IAE stock not goin to ignore that event possible peggin 41pb = 50p 43pb = 55p 45pb = 60p 47pb =65p 50pb = 70p 55pb = 75p 60pb = 80p
o1lman: Ithaca - Waiting for Stella By Graham Neary | Monday 16 May 2016 Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. North Sea oil and gas producer Ithaca Energy (IAE) provided a Q1 report this morning which has reassured investors that long-awaited production in the Stella oil field will be coming soon. But the shares still carry an extraordinary amount of risk. I dabbled in shorting a small number of these in 2014/15, riding the share price down from 55p and covering at 29p. My rationale at entry was two-fold: firstly, that the sail-away of the floating production facility (FPF-1) from Poland carried a high degree of execution risk; secondly, that the 55p share price was not sufficiently “option-like”, given Ithaca’s debt burden. My short trade worked out thanks to the announcement in February 2015 that progress working on FPF-1 had indeed been slower than expected, with sail-away pushed back from Q2 2015 to Q1 2016. Sail-away is currently scheduled for June (next month), and production is set to begin in September. When Stella is operational, total Ithaca output is forecast to increase from 9,000 BOEPD as seen in the most recent quarter, to 20-25,000 BOEPD. Operating costs of $25-30/BOE on existing fields, when combined with the low-cost Stella field, will hopefully see company operating costs fall to $20/BOE. Key to Ithaca’s survival over the last two years has been a hugely profitable hedging programme. Hedges through to the end of H1 2017 are in place of between 7-9,000 BOEPD, at an average price of $62/barrel. The company has disclosed that at quarter-end, when the spot price was about $40/barrel, the hedges were worth some $94 million. This is the futures market doing what it was designed to do – helping commodity producers (or customers) to survive volatile conditions. It’s not just the hedging programme which has been crucial for Ithaca. Banks have been supportive too, as Ithaca has worked hard to reduce its debt pile from $800 million in H1 2015 to the current level of $630 million. This consists of $300 million of Senior Unsecured Notes due in July 2019, and a Reserve-Based Lending Facility which is regularly reviewed by a major bank syndicate. $350 million has been drawn under this facility, and is offset by $20 million of cash. Ithaca is capitalised at about £180 million at 43.5p/share, or $260 million. Given that the equity accounts for just 30% of total enterprise value, it is clear that the shares are still priced as option-type instruments over the debt. With $100 million of debt headroom and with cashflow set to ramp up later in the year as work begins on Stella’s 30 million of assessed 2P reserves, I would not be tempted to short these shares right now. Management correctly view deleveraging as their core priority and have taken some special steps to achieve this, including a premium placing to raise $66 million last October. But there is still a great deal of work to be done. Ithaca will need to generate the cash flow to work down its RBL facility to enable it to operate for the longer-term after the $60/barrel hedges expire. It also has capex plans of $50 million in 2016 and then $10-25 million on core assets (plus $25-75 million on new investment opportunities) every year thereafter. Probably starting next year, Ithaca will need to think seriously about how it intends to refinance its 2019 Notes. These Notes are rated B3 by Moody’s, i.e. “speculative and subject to high credit risk”. Clearly, dividends should be very low on the list of Ithaca’s priorities over the next few years. These shares are worth keeping on the watchlist - they could be a cracking long or short trade in due course. For now, while still being biased towards the short side, they are just too hard for me to judge.
gersemi: Relates to Shell but the oil price should see a recovery just in time for Greater Stella hook-up: Citywire AAA-rated Chris White says that 'the market is wrong' to challenge the sustainability of the oil major's dividend by Sean Butters on Mar 02, 2016 at 08:00 Chris White, Premier Asset Management’s head of UK equities, argues a reversal in oil sentiment fund is wary of jumping the gun on calling the bottom of the oil price, he does believe the end is in sight. ‘Oil price weakness could continue for another couple of months,’ said White. ‘However, it is a supply problem rather than a demand one. Saudi Arabia and the Opec nations will eventually get their act together and reduce supply, and the price will probably start to recover in the second half of this year,' he said. While admitting that the price could slide further, ultimately White sees it recovering once oil production is constrained. ‘Market equilibrium should be restored, and if this happens, we will see a very sharp bounce in the oil price. If all the producers tighten supply by 2%, then the oil price will rocket – along with the share price,’ he said. ‘Considering all the shorts in under-pressure oil companies, why shouldn’t the oil price move like a share price when good news comes out? All the shorts would get closed, and the price would move up remarkably fast – as much as $10 in a day and $15 in two.’ HTTP://
gersemi: This article's from March last year but it only serves to highlight even further the value embedded in IAE HTTP:// Why Paul Mumford has been snapping up small-cap oil As low oil prices continue to bite at energy-related stocks, Cavendish Asset Management’s Paul Mumford tells FE Trustnet why firms in the oil industry are still a viable investment. Plummeting oil prices have dominated the headlines for months, instilling bearish tendencies in many investors. Despite prices slowly increasing over recent time frames, it is safe to say that crude oil is still deep-seated in a slump and is a far cry from where it was just two years ago. So why is Cavendish Asset Management’s Paul Mumford (pictured) snapping up shares in the small-cap oil sector? “If you’re looking at the sector itself, it’s completely friendless because the oil price hasn’t improved and nobody really wants to get involved as they think the oil price is going to be at this level for the next two or three years,” he admits. However, Mumford – who runs the Cavendish Opportunities and Cavendish UK Select funds – is drawing on previous experience which has left him optimistic over a long-term view. He said: “What tends to happen is you find that, first of all, you get an overreaction in the share prices. For instance, if you look at the house-building sector, that recovered long before the housing market recovered. In this case the prices got very depressed indeed.” “Another example more recently is Tesco. Tesco went down to the mid-150s and nobody wanted to buy it – the income funds didn’t want it because it cut its dividends. The growth funds didn’t want it because it was ex-growth and even Warren Buffet a cut £347m loss on the thing because he didn’t want to hold it.” “And lo and behold, the share price recovered, at a time when there was still competition with the supermarkets. I think this sort of thing is going to happen with the oil and gas sector.” Mumford has a wealth of investment experience. Before becoming a fund manager in 1988 when he joined Glenfriars, he worked as an analyst for Norris Oakley Brothers and also as a smaller-companies expert at R Nivison. As a result of this, he’s witnessed many market truisms first-hand. “One of the reasons I think the oil price is going to recover is because it’s happened in the past,” he said. “Many years ago, I bought a number of companies when oil got down to $14 per barrel and I said to myself: ‘Do I take advantage of this by buying BP or Shell?’ And the answer was: ‘No, I’ll go for the smaller companies.’” “The reason for going for smaller companies is because BP and Shell have got to have special discoveries just to replace the oil that they’re using up.” Mumford contrasted this to smaller companies, where just a reasonable find can be completely game-changing in terms of both assets and income. He said: “I prefer smaller companies because not all of them will go right, but the ones that do go right could go up ten-fold over a period. It might not happen for some five or 10 years, but who cares if you’re going to make that sort of money?” Because of the risk involved with smaller stocks, Mumford has been strict on the criteria that he has adopted when choosing companies to invest in. “I’ve avoided places like the Falkland Islands as it’s too remote,” he said. “I’ve avoided places like America where it’s just a completely different game. I’ve stuck to the North Sea where I understand what’s going on.” “In a lot of cases, some of the shares I’ve bought have hedged their oil so that, for the next 18 months or so, they won’t have any particular financial problems. Alternatively, they’ve got sufficient production to get them a cash flow through which will see them through this sticky period.” Ithaca Energy, one of Mumford’s favoured small-caps, has hedged 6,300 barrels of oil per day at an average price of $102 until 30 June next year. “[Ithaca] is producing around 12 000 barrels each day, and it’s got an oil field coming into production next year which will give it another 16 000 barrels of oil,” the manager said. “The share prices got whacked back because the second field has been delayed and people have been very disappointed about it.” The company, which has a current market cap of £121.58m, is set to have a cash flow of over £330m when the second field comes into production. “It’s astonishing value,” Mumford said. “But, the problem with it is the fact that it’s got debts of about $700m or $800m and I think these are going to peak at about $850m.” “It’s got head room of up to $1bn so it is risky in as much as it has got this borrowing situation, but if I’m right and oil doesn’t come down much further, then it’s going to pay back those debts fairly quickly. Also, its average production cost is about $30 a barrel, so it’s got plenty of head room to make a profit.” Another small-cap oil company in Mumford’s portfolio is Hurricane Energy, which still needs to raise money in order to bring its field into production. Mumford said: “It made some money the Christmas before last and it drilled an appraisal well in July which came in at quite an astonishing rate. This proves that the company had 208m barrels of oil in that particular North Sea oil field that it owns. In its current state, they can sell that for $5 a barrel, and the company’s value in the market is £100m, so you can see the value on that.” Hurricane Energy shares were issued at 43p and are now selling at 15.5p, which Mumford says demonstrates how friendless and oversold the market is in this area. “I have a few [oil] stocks which I think may not work, there’s always a possibility of some of them going bust,” he admitted. “I’ve only got about 6 per cent in my portfolios. I’ll probably build it up to 7, 8 or 9 per cent, but I wouldn’t bet the ranch on them.” “The most I would happily put in each particular holding is about 1.5 per cent, on the basis that, if something goes wrong with the company, I’m only losing a penny to the pound. But, if it goes right then I’m making several times that.” The icing on the cake for Mumford would be if the price of oil improves, which he is certain will happen at some stage, even if it doesn’t occur for a long time. “I think as sure as eggs is eggs, the stock market does tend to anticipate these sorts of changes,” he said. “The price of Ithaca’s come down from about 140p and the current price is 36p which is completely ridiculous. But then there are larger companies, like Cairn Energy, that have sufficient cash to get them through the next couple of years.” However, Mumford notes that investing in larger companies doesn’t necessarily offer better security and cited BP’s spillage in the Gulf as a prime example. He said: “The share price cratered, they cut the dividends, and the liabilities mounted up. In my opinion, that’s the danger of having big stocks.” If you can get 70 stocks with good potential, then I’d prefer to have that than 40 stocks which have got great potential but, if something goes wrong, the capital growth of the fund is ruined.” --
music1: Thanks for posting those notes from RBC and Cannacord. Both seem fair assessments but the valuations really are not much different to last week when the IAE share price was in the 70s, a delay to Stella does not justify a drop to the 40s. Cannacord state the obvious, if oil falls and stays down over the next 12 months then IAE like many other oilers are in trouble. If oil continues to steady and rises to over $70 in the next year then they will be fine - just depends how you view the oil price and how quickly the current 1 to 2 mbopd over supply, which does not seem much to me, will be corrected.
eacn: If A2 delivers decent results then I would expect the share price to move into the 170 range by Christmas, which would be a very nice Christmas present given that I speak for over 2.25 million IAE. I don't expect to reach the 190's until all development drilling is complete and we are close to actual production. By then, however, PoO may be under pressure if there is a material prospect of a long term deal with Iran. According to the FT, oil traders expect PoO to fall significantly in 2014. While I can understand that calculation, and regard it as the single biggest risk for the IAE share price, I am not convinced that supply will outstrip demand for long, or that OPEC will prove as indisciplined in the face of price falls as some expect. There is also the distinct possibility that sovereigns will step into the market to add to their strategic reserves if they believe that weakness in PoO is a short term phenomenon.
eacn: Mount Teide, Prescient indeed. Your post 14451 underlines the point I was making the other day: that adjusting the EV to take account of debt without factoring in the uplift in production that then ensues leads to wild fluctuations in valuation. While I would have preferred IAE to soldier on without Valiant, the reality is that the Valiant acquisition is likely to proceed. IAE without Valiant was easy to model and offered a clear cut upside: a cash pile that would underpin a share price of at least 200p by 2015 and close to 300p by end 2016. I was content that there was no material exploration upside and thus few likely calls on the prospective cash. My thinking was that sooner or later IAE would succumb to a buyer who was prepared to pay for the cashflow. The flaw in that analysis was the management's declared appetite for acquisitions. My assumption was that there would be further bolt-ons of a similar scale to those undertaken to date, and that purchases would be made in cash rather than with shares. This assumption has proved incorrect. So the question now is what does the future hold for Ithaca with Valiant on board? As others have noted, the group is clearly a more rounded proposition. Cashflow will be improved, gearing reduced, and there is a meaningful roster of exploration prospects, albeit of mixed quality imo. The group will attract greater institutional interest by virtue of its size, and may itself become a target for larger players wishing to expand their interests in the North Sea. I would like to think that enlargement would lead to more rapid appreciation in the SP, accelerating the decline in the discount to fair value, but the initial reaction to the bid suggests otherwise. It is, however, dangerous to read to much into short term share price movements: most of my best investments in oil & gas have been made following transformational announcements, which the market takes time to digest. EEN, EO., GKP, IAE and TPL (an ongoing story) have all exhibited this behaviour. In the case of a takeover this can arise because most of the major investors on both sides have been taken 'offside' as a result of management briefings in the run up to the offer being made public. Removing these players from the market will reduce liquidity and stifle the most likely source of demand in the event of the share price being materially below fair value. Furthermore in the run up to a bid, management are normally not in a position to brief analysts or potential new investors. These factors provide a plausible explanation for why the IAE share price has been range bound for the last few months. We also have the added complication of the 'dissenting shareholders', who have accumulated a 7% stake over a period of months. It will have been in their interests for the share price to have remained at a significant discount to fair value, a situation that understandably arose following the failed bid talks in early 2012, but which has been unusually prolonged in IAE's case. Followers of the dissenting shareholders may have prompted the fall in the share price immediately following the announcement of the offer for Valiant, a short lived effect that now appears to be reversing. In hindsight this may well prove to be a buying opportunity, because by any metric the combined group is worth more than 120p a share.
Ithaca Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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