Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Ithaca Energy LSE:IAE London Ordinary Share CA4656761042 COM SHS NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -1.00p -0.87% 114.00p 113.75p 114.00p 114.75p 113.00p 114.00p 1,175,688.00 13:01:52
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 116.4 -67.7 -10.5 - 473.16

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Date Time Title Posts
25/3/201711:45ITHACA - North Sea Oil19,966.00
06/2/201709:22ITHACA - Chart Thread895.00
26/11/201611:07Ithaca Energy INC. : An oil giant in the making4.00
12/3/201507:33Malcolm Graham-Wood , Oil Analysis, bullish on Ithica Energy2.00
20/12/201309:36IAE North Sea Oil "Substantial" Discovery. Now for Development35.00

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Ithaca Energy Daily Update: Ithaca Energy is listed in the Oil & Gas Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IAE. The last closing price for Ithaca Energy was 115p.
Ithaca Energy has a 4 week average price of - and a 12 week average price of -.
The 1 year high share price is - while the 1 year low share price is currently -.
There are currently 415,049,036 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 0 shares. The market capitalisation of Ithaca Energy is £472,118,278.45.
oilandgas1: runwaypaul.. A recent post from someone..which most shareholders should know.. could you just be working for delek? IAE share value estimate: "here are some basic maths 1) Audited reserves - 57 million barrels 2) oil price $55 3) Operating cost $18 4) net margin $37 5) net revenue 37 x 55m = $2bn 6) less debt of $600m = $1.4bn 7) FX of 1.25 = £1.1bn 8) shares outstanding 420m 9) value per share = £2.6 These are conservative - oil prices could go higher and reserves will increase with the new tie backs. Also, there is the time value of money - so £2.6 should be more like £1.6 today. Its difficult to find a way to go to £1.2 unless oil is $30. Its a judgement call on where oil prices are going and what might happen to production. The share price would be £1.2 anyway so you have the choice of selling in the market at £1.2 now or hanging on if you feel positive about oil price and the company to continue delivering projects. The deleveraging effect would increase the share price anyway over the next year - so share price would inevitably go up absent anything else.... Need I say more"
bountyhunter: from the Stockhouse BB (link in header) "silverbaronalbe February 07, 2017 - 06:57 PM 158 Reads Post# 25813294 Delek wants IAE, hence this offer and they hope to pullit off. But what they have done is started low to bring down the final offer after rejection by shareholders. This offer limits upside of production from Stella on share price. Don't forget upcoming events such as exploration at Harrier and hookup to pipeline mid year. Hookup to pipeline will lower IAE's cost to approx $10-11.00/boe, which will really increase cash flow. Cash flow for debt and exploration - none of these events are priced in. Rest assured Delek has grasphed these events in their plans. Do not sell - hold for better offer from Delek or another party. Key here is the platform which is a company maker it itself."
speedsgh: The counter-argument provided by FT's Lex Column today... Ithaca/Delek: North Sea star fisher - HTTPS:// Israeli group’s offer for the oil explorer is pitched fairly Phineas Taylor Barnum prepared for his death in an unusual way: he had the New York Evening Sun print his obituary early. North Sea oil explorers — and workers — will have read of the imminent end of that region’s prospects more than once. Yet every few years, buyers return to buy up reputedly fading oilfields. Delek Group of Israel sees life under the North Sea. It agreed to buy London and Toronto-listed Ithaca Energy on Monday for £1.20 per share at an enterprise value of $1.24bn, including net debt of $614m. While the premium over the undisturbed price looks low at 12 per cent, it is low for good reason. As a holder of a fifth of Ithaca’s shares, Delek should know what it is getting into. Having bought shares in late 2015, it will have already benefited over the past year from the bull run in Ithaca’s share price, which has risen fivefold. Delek may have waited to bid partly to get more confidence on Ithaca’s cash flow outlook. Stella, Ithaca’s key 55 per cent-owned oilfield, had been severely delayed — due to equipment problems with a floating production vessel — but should come on stream this month. Ithaca’s production, at 9,300 barrels a day at the end of last year, will more than double later this year. Could Delek have paid a bit more? Perhaps. But at £1.20, Delek has offered as much as a fifth above broker RBC’s net asset value per share estimate from the beginning of this year. Given almost every London-listed oil explorer trades below its respective NAV, Ithaca does not seem to have gone so cheaply. Yes, Ithaca’s cash flow will surge from this year, sharply reducing its leverage and possibly attracting more suitors. Yet that looks priced in on an enterprise value of over five times cash flow, excluding net interest charges. That valuation is above average for its peer group. Shareholders of Ithaca, like Mr Barnum, should accept the inevitable and assent to the Delek offer, which looks a fair one. The show must go on.
speedsgh: Malcy's Blog - HTTP:// Ithaca Energy - Giving it all away….. Ithaca has announced an agreed cash offer worth 120p from Delek Group which is a 19.7% shareholder and which puts an enterprise value on IAE of $1.24bn. This bid which is only an 11% premium to the Friday share price, is highly opportunistic, coming as it does only days before the FPF-1 comes on stream at Stella and which will transform the economics of the company. There is no doubt that looking at current analysts’ values of the company the bid might be considered full, but I would contend that those values would have changed significantly in this landmark year and looking forward the bid will look parsimonious in the extreme. Ithaca has a fine portfolio of assets and a number of these will be proved to be especially valuable to Delek if the deal goes through. Whilst not certain of course, the economics of the sector are beginning to look as bright as they have done for a long time and with industry costs still falling and the oil price creeping up valuations are more subject than ever. Shareholders who are probably delighted with this bid, dont get me wrong, may be about to miss out on the ride of their lives as IAE start up at Stella, raise revenue, pay down debt, all bringing the rating down, and miss taking advantage of what is one of the best managements in the sector. Having spoken to the management I fully understand that they have the best insight into the risk profile and the potential value of the company going forward and could not in all honestly not put this offer to shareholders with their recommendation. I am also assured that no discussions have taken place about job security and that includes whether the IAE executives are to be kept on should the rumours be true about Delek listing an oil vehicle in London. It should be noted that they also own 20% of Faroe Petroleum another premium North Sea player, maybe following this and the recent Chrysaor deal means that the consolidation of the sector is finally under way. That will be fine as long as long as opportunistic bids are not accepted just as the promised land is under foot and patient shareholders rewards are within tantalising reach. It would certainly not do if an uber cautious board delivered one the sectors finest companies into hostile hands on the cheap and without appropriate vision.
gary38: Hurricane Energy and EnQuest among the few 'buys' left in oil sector - MacquarieShare 11:33 03 Feb 2017"Hurricane offers 82%+ upside to our target price from the current share price, and has the clearest near-term tangible value creation opportunities, in our view.oil platformValuations in the oil sector have caught upIt is harder work picking winners in the oil and gas sector now that crude prices have steadied and share prices have climbed, so says Macquarie.Kate Sloan, analyst at Macquarie, most share prices are close to fair value and as a result many in the sector have been downgraded.Cairn Energy PLC (LON:CNE), Faroe Petroleum plc (LON:FPM), Ithaca Energy Plc (LON:IAE), Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) and Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) are all relegated to a 'neutral' rating.Three of Macquarie's 'top picks' retain their 'buy' recommendations; Hurricane Energy Plc (LON:HUR), EnQuest Plc (LON:ENQ) and Africa Oil Corp (TSE:AOI).Of the three, Hurricane Energy is deemed to have the clearest value opportunities."Hurricane offers 82%+ upside to our target price from the current share price, and has the clearest near-term tangible value creation opportunities, in our view."Further exploratory drilling (ongoing) and progress on the Lancaster development could add significant value, building on the success the company enjoyed in 2016."Macquarie has a 90p price target for Hurricane (current price: 51.25p).EnQuest, meanwhile, is Macquarie's pick for further oil price leverage combined with low risk project progression."Although the rest of the sector now reflects a much higher discounted oil price than it did four months ago, EnQuest is still discounting US$63/bbl, the same number it was back in August 2016," Sloan said."We believe the valuation gap will be narrowed in the coming months once the market starts to believe in Kraken delivery."Macquarie has a 79p target price for EnQuest (current price: 46.34p).Sloan added that Africa Oil's has very attractive upside through de-risking the discoveries in Kenya's South Lokichar basin, where it partners Tullow.
gersemi: Delays happen in the real world but always take advantage of price weakness in IAE due to the simple fact that when Stella is fully operational I believe we will see re-rate in the company's valuation. These delays are an opportunity to profit not a hindrance. The IAE price always fights back
bountyhunter: As Whiskey said if the FPF-1 had returned to Gdansk to avoid the storms I'm pretty sure the share price would have taken a downturn. If this had happened without being aware of the location of the FPF-1 then the cause of such a share price reaction would have been a mystery. Having said that of course the Brent price is also a very significant factor but then I guess that's not worth watching either. Personally I'd rather be aware of what's happening before the share price reacts not afterwards. Also there is no guarantee as to what is going to happen with a platform on tow as can be seen by recent news. If you're not interested in the FPF-1 then just ignore those posts.
gersemi: This article's from March last year but it only serves to highlight even further the value embedded in IAE HTTP:// Why Paul Mumford has been snapping up small-cap oil As low oil prices continue to bite at energy-related stocks, Cavendish Asset Management’s Paul Mumford tells FE Trustnet why firms in the oil industry are still a viable investment. Plummeting oil prices have dominated the headlines for months, instilling bearish tendencies in many investors. Despite prices slowly increasing over recent time frames, it is safe to say that crude oil is still deep-seated in a slump and is a far cry from where it was just two years ago. So why is Cavendish Asset Management’s Paul Mumford (pictured) snapping up shares in the small-cap oil sector? “If you’re looking at the sector itself, it’s completely friendless because the oil price hasn’t improved and nobody really wants to get involved as they think the oil price is going to be at this level for the next two or three years,” he admits. However, Mumford – who runs the Cavendish Opportunities and Cavendish UK Select funds – is drawing on previous experience which has left him optimistic over a long-term view. He said: “What tends to happen is you find that, first of all, you get an overreaction in the share prices. For instance, if you look at the house-building sector, that recovered long before the housing market recovered. In this case the prices got very depressed indeed.” “Another example more recently is Tesco. Tesco went down to the mid-150s and nobody wanted to buy it – the income funds didn’t want it because it cut its dividends. The growth funds didn’t want it because it was ex-growth and even Warren Buffet a cut £347m loss on the thing because he didn’t want to hold it.” “And lo and behold, the share price recovered, at a time when there was still competition with the supermarkets. I think this sort of thing is going to happen with the oil and gas sector.” Mumford has a wealth of investment experience. Before becoming a fund manager in 1988 when he joined Glenfriars, he worked as an analyst for Norris Oakley Brothers and also as a smaller-companies expert at R Nivison. As a result of this, he’s witnessed many market truisms first-hand. “One of the reasons I think the oil price is going to recover is because it’s happened in the past,” he said. “Many years ago, I bought a number of companies when oil got down to $14 per barrel and I said to myself: ‘Do I take advantage of this by buying BP or Shell?’ And the answer was: ‘No, I’ll go for the smaller companies.’” “The reason for going for smaller companies is because BP and Shell have got to have special discoveries just to replace the oil that they’re using up.” Mumford contrasted this to smaller companies, where just a reasonable find can be completely game-changing in terms of both assets and income. He said: “I prefer smaller companies because not all of them will go right, but the ones that do go right could go up ten-fold over a period. It might not happen for some five or 10 years, but who cares if you’re going to make that sort of money?” Because of the risk involved with smaller stocks, Mumford has been strict on the criteria that he has adopted when choosing companies to invest in. “I’ve avoided places like the Falkland Islands as it’s too remote,” he said. “I’ve avoided places like America where it’s just a completely different game. I’ve stuck to the North Sea where I understand what’s going on.” “In a lot of cases, some of the shares I’ve bought have hedged their oil so that, for the next 18 months or so, they won’t have any particular financial problems. Alternatively, they’ve got sufficient production to get them a cash flow through which will see them through this sticky period.” Ithaca Energy, one of Mumford’s favoured small-caps, has hedged 6,300 barrels of oil per day at an average price of $102 until 30 June next year. “[Ithaca] is producing around 12 000 barrels each day, and it’s got an oil field coming into production next year which will give it another 16 000 barrels of oil,” the manager said. “The share prices got whacked back because the second field has been delayed and people have been very disappointed about it.” The company, which has a current market cap of £121.58m, is set to have a cash flow of over £330m when the second field comes into production. “It’s astonishing value,” Mumford said. “But, the problem with it is the fact that it’s got debts of about $700m or $800m and I think these are going to peak at about $850m.” “It’s got head room of up to $1bn so it is risky in as much as it has got this borrowing situation, but if I’m right and oil doesn’t come down much further, then it’s going to pay back those debts fairly quickly. Also, its average production cost is about $30 a barrel, so it’s got plenty of head room to make a profit.” Another small-cap oil company in Mumford’s portfolio is Hurricane Energy, which still needs to raise money in order to bring its field into production. Mumford said: “It made some money the Christmas before last and it drilled an appraisal well in July which came in at quite an astonishing rate. This proves that the company had 208m barrels of oil in that particular North Sea oil field that it owns. In its current state, they can sell that for $5 a barrel, and the company’s value in the market is £100m, so you can see the value on that.” Hurricane Energy shares were issued at 43p and are now selling at 15.5p, which Mumford says demonstrates how friendless and oversold the market is in this area. “I have a few [oil] stocks which I think may not work, there’s always a possibility of some of them going bust,” he admitted. “I’ve only got about 6 per cent in my portfolios. I’ll probably build it up to 7, 8 or 9 per cent, but I wouldn’t bet the ranch on them.” “The most I would happily put in each particular holding is about 1.5 per cent, on the basis that, if something goes wrong with the company, I’m only losing a penny to the pound. But, if it goes right then I’m making several times that.” The icing on the cake for Mumford would be if the price of oil improves, which he is certain will happen at some stage, even if it doesn’t occur for a long time. “I think as sure as eggs is eggs, the stock market does tend to anticipate these sorts of changes,” he said. “The price of Ithaca’s come down from about 140p and the current price is 36p which is completely ridiculous. But then there are larger companies, like Cairn Energy, that have sufficient cash to get them through the next couple of years.” However, Mumford notes that investing in larger companies doesn’t necessarily offer better security and cited BP’s spillage in the Gulf as a prime example. He said: “The share price cratered, they cut the dividends, and the liabilities mounted up. In my opinion, that’s the danger of having big stocks.” If you can get 70 stocks with good potential, then I’d prefer to have that than 40 stocks which have got great potential but, if something goes wrong, the capital growth of the fund is ruined.” --
music1: Thanks for posting those notes from RBC and Cannacord. Both seem fair assessments but the valuations really are not much different to last week when the IAE share price was in the 70s, a delay to Stella does not justify a drop to the 40s. Cannacord state the obvious, if oil falls and stays down over the next 12 months then IAE like many other oilers are in trouble. If oil continues to steady and rises to over $70 in the next year then they will be fine - just depends how you view the oil price and how quickly the current 1 to 2 mbopd over supply, which does not seem much to me, will be corrected.
eacn: Mount Teide, Prescient indeed. Your post 14451 underlines the point I was making the other day: that adjusting the EV to take account of debt without factoring in the uplift in production that then ensues leads to wild fluctuations in valuation. While I would have preferred IAE to soldier on without Valiant, the reality is that the Valiant acquisition is likely to proceed. IAE without Valiant was easy to model and offered a clear cut upside: a cash pile that would underpin a share price of at least 200p by 2015 and close to 300p by end 2016. I was content that there was no material exploration upside and thus few likely calls on the prospective cash. My thinking was that sooner or later IAE would succumb to a buyer who was prepared to pay for the cashflow. The flaw in that analysis was the management's declared appetite for acquisitions. My assumption was that there would be further bolt-ons of a similar scale to those undertaken to date, and that purchases would be made in cash rather than with shares. This assumption has proved incorrect. So the question now is what does the future hold for Ithaca with Valiant on board? As others have noted, the group is clearly a more rounded proposition. Cashflow will be improved, gearing reduced, and there is a meaningful roster of exploration prospects, albeit of mixed quality imo. The group will attract greater institutional interest by virtue of its size, and may itself become a target for larger players wishing to expand their interests in the North Sea. I would like to think that enlargement would lead to more rapid appreciation in the SP, accelerating the decline in the discount to fair value, but the initial reaction to the bid suggests otherwise. It is, however, dangerous to read to much into short term share price movements: most of my best investments in oil & gas have been made following transformational announcements, which the market takes time to digest. EEN, EO., GKP, IAE and TPL (an ongoing story) have all exhibited this behaviour. In the case of a takeover this can arise because most of the major investors on both sides have been taken 'offside' as a result of management briefings in the run up to the offer being made public. Removing these players from the market will reduce liquidity and stifle the most likely source of demand in the event of the share price being materially below fair value. Furthermore in the run up to a bid, management are normally not in a position to brief analysts or potential new investors. These factors provide a plausible explanation for why the IAE share price has been range bound for the last few months. We also have the added complication of the 'dissenting shareholders', who have accumulated a 7% stake over a period of months. It will have been in their interests for the share price to have remained at a significant discount to fair value, a situation that understandably arose following the failed bid talks in early 2012, but which has been unusually prolonged in IAE's case. Followers of the dissenting shareholders may have prompted the fall in the share price immediately following the announcement of the offer for Valiant, a short lived effect that now appears to be reversing. In hindsight this may well prove to be a buying opportunity, because by any metric the combined group is worth more than 120p a share.
Ithaca Energy share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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