Ithaca Energy Share Discussion Threads

[georgie pie] 22/11/2016 15:06

lots of smaller automated trades going through...big buyers sucking them up looks like and with OPEC finally realising this is the last chance saloon, a mega deal to boost the oil price and silence the doom merchant's is being pushed through imho...we will be back to $60 very soon. perfect timing for IAE to tell the world production has doubled! £ is just days away imho

[sawadee3] 22/11/2016 11:28

I have an old saying that has served me well over my investment years and provided me with the lifestyle i always wanted and deserve :-)

"I won't always win on the day, but i will ALWAYS win in the end"

Long, very confident and very, very strong :-)

Happy days chaps :-)

[bountyhunter] 22/11/2016 10:31

Brent nearly back at $50 now on the back of expectations of some kind of agreement next Wednesday.

[ngms27] 21/11/2016 08:38

Iraq's not paying International Companies now fully, so why do they think they will invest more Capex. They won't until Iraq pay's the monies due which it can't afford.

Vicious circle.

[bountyhunter] 19/11/2016 22:27

another one for the header :)

[laserdisc] 19/11/2016 19:52

Shows broker forecasts previous months

[bountyhunter] 19/11/2016 18:10

"Ithaca Energy Inc. 6.3% Potential Upside Indicated by Barclays Capital"



... don't overdo it Barclays! Fincapp are being a little more generous... ;-)


"Finncap Gives Ithaca Energy Price Target With Potential 18.34% Upside"

[cfccfc1970] 15/11/2016 21:59

Finished 1.40 CAD = 0.836182GBP
Lets hope for a follow through in the morning!!

[bountyhunter] 15/11/2016 20:55

IAE picking up in Toronto in line with the rise in the Brent price, currently $47.08 up $2.39 on the day

[o1lman] 15/11/2016 15:01

yep, the days of yore are over in the North Sea, most of the easy oil has already been produced, I'm sure u meant reserves than 2P resources as that's a whole different discussion.
Oil companies use 2P figures for a reason it's up to pi's to realise the reason.

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2016 14:32

I know there's a big difference. There's also a big difference between 3P and 2p. I think if 1p was really demanded by investors it would be more commonly used, but there you go.

Your definition says 2p means:"It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved + probable reserves."

You now seem to be saying that this is wrong and the total oil recovered is more likely to be less than the 2p figure quoted.

Ive never seen any study comparing the average eventual production of fields to 2p resources. Of course as a field produces the amount and proportion of 1p/2p/3p reserves changes. Im sure there's examples of fields that produce surprises either way but what happens on average is different.

[o1lman] 15/11/2016 13:48

the actual figures are not relevant just posted as an example to show the huge difference in 1P and 2P figures, it's obvious why oil companies use 2P figures but they are not representative of what the likely outcome will be.
one fact everyone who has followed Ifaca over the years will know.

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2016 13:37

I know the definitions.

You can't eliminate risk by using 1p figures and they aren't always available anyways.

[o1lman] 15/11/2016 13:27

The following defined terms have the respective meanings set out below:

1P Proved reserves.
2P Proved reserves + probable reserves.
3P Proved reserves + probable reserves + possible reserves


1P Proved reserves Those reserves that can be estimated with a high degree of certainty to be recoverable. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the estimated proved reserves.

2P Probable reserves Those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved + probable reserves.

3P Possible reserves Those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the sum of the estimated proved + probable + possible reserves.

[o1lman] 15/11/2016 13:26

exactly that's why u should base your investment decision on 1P and then any 2P becomes a bonus.

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2016 13:18

I'd maybe call 2p a guess or estimate rather than a con which implies deliberate deceit. But how do you you decide to invest in any company? It always comes down to judgement. Oil in the ground is not money in the bank. Until youve got it out the ground its a risk. And even then you are relying on company not to waste it. But buying any share involves risk.

[o1lman] 15/11/2016 12:27

The Athena field is situated in block 14/18b in the Outer Moray Firth area of the UKCS, lying approximately 18 kilometres west of the Claymore and Scapa fields and the associated production facilities.

Ithaca currently holds a 22.5% interest in the block 14/18b. The field has been evaluated by Sproule Associates to contain 2P reserves (gross) of 24.4 million barrels of oil.

June 06, 2014

>>>>>>>>>>>>

Stella slightly more than Athena, 2P figures are hardly ever produced, it's normally turns out to be a con but that's why they start with a 2 and not a 1.

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2016 12:03

Harrier and Hurricane are included in the 30.8 MMboe figure for 2P in Stella area, but Austen and Vorlich aren't because they are recent purchases.

My understanding is that the plan is to bring on a new field every two years and so Harrier is up next in 2017. They say it'll be cheap because they can make use of existing infrastructure.

So Capex of $10-25 million per annum on producing assets. Plus $25 -75 million per annum bringing on additional fields. Pretty cheap Id say.

Obviously having the FPF1 platform makes a huge difference to the cost of bringing on additional production from Harrier.

The enterprise value doesn't reflect the potential to buy up other reserves in the area and develop them cheaply using the FPF1 and other existing infrastructure.

Id say you are either convinced by Ithaca's strategy to use FPF1 as a hub to cheaply exploit the Greater Stella area or you aren't.


I'll paste what they said at last update:

"Beyond 2016 Ithaca forecasts an average underlying capital expenditure of $10-25 million per annum on its producing asset portfolio. This relates to facilities maintenance and low cost production enhancement activities. In addition to this, the Company has a diverse set of further investment opportunities within its existing portfolio and the flexibility to tailor its capital programme to the economic outlook at the time. It is anticipated that the average annual capital expenditure required to develop these opportunities will be between $25 -75 million.

The Company is in the process of finalising its investment plans for 2017 and will set out the forecast capital expenditure at the start of the year. Planning of the Harrier development programme is well advanced and work continues on assessing the options for drilling infill wells on the Cook field and the Don NE licence area. The nature of these programmes, being development activities that take advantage of existing infrastructure, and the opportunities to secure lower than previously anticipated investment costs mean that these are expected to represent high value targets in the current
environment."

[frazboy] 15/11/2016 11:02

Stella reserves and the greater Stella area reserves are not the same. Harrier and hurricane are included in the latter I think. So quite a bit of capex required to tie those back. I recall that Stella had 2P reserves net to Ithaca of around 14MMbo so just under 3 years if thy can produce them at plateau, which they can't. I would estimate 40 to 50% at plateau so a year and a bit. Hence my remark about wanting to see a 2 year profile

Another way of valuing Ithaca is to take the reserves and the enterprise value. I think it works out at around $18 per bbl. that strikes me as expensive

I have no position but have said i might go short depending on the price action in the run up to first production at Stella

[whiskeyinthejar] 15/11/2016 09:00

I checked the annual information report:



Page 18.

Sproule 2P Reserves Estimates
December 31, 2015 MMboe

Greater Stella Area 30.8
Dons Area 6.2
Cook 5.7
Wytch Farm 5.3
Pierce 3.4
Causeway / Fionn 1.6
Broom 0.2
Topaz 0.1
TOTAL 53.2
Vorlich * 3.8
TOTAL (including Vorlich) 57.0

* Estimated Vorlich reserves.


But in August Vorlich interest increased to ~8MMboe and they bought the Austen discovery which is net 3-21MMboe.

So they have at least 40MMboe of 2P reserves in Stella area.

And of course, more asset purchases in Stella area should follow.

[ngms27] 15/11/2016 08:07

15000 x 365 = 5.475m barrels

If production were to be flat (it won't be) it's going to take over 5 years to drain Stella, not 2.

BTW I hold no shares in Ithaca.