Ip Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 13/11/2019 05:02

Liquidity mismatch and the clock is ticking. Something will have to happen if Link want out in full in a timely fashion.

[guildedge] 12/11/2019 22:20

Looks like Link still own 19-20% TRX shares. The share has lost 3.1p since end of June. So 3m or so for IPO. Most of IPO value is in Oxford Nanopore (ON). Their share is worth 350m or so. ON is Valued at 1.6bn. I agree about the unlisted stock. Who knows what it is truly worth. I have been tracking the PLC shares we can track and on the year most are down.

TRX traded nearly 500m shares today. So I expect Link or another have been selling here. up 29% today. So perhaps will recover once Link have cleared? How much by is another matter. It's at best a penny share.

Of course with such a big discount on NAV this allows for the over valuation of some of these firms.

In terms of IPO someone still selling shares? Higher volumes today. Lot of doubt around Invesco whose fund was downgraded by Morningstar recently. They may want to extract monies from more risky investments. I doubt the Railway Pension will want to hold more than 20% of shares here. You go above 30% and they would have to make an offer for the firm. So Invesco might need another buyer. Or they could stick at 20%.

It's not easy to simply dump 50% of a share overnight and replace 2 large investors. Woodford has already asked many existing investors to increase their holdings here.

Did anyone understand the RNS? Is buying up their own shares a bad thing?

[pugugly] 12/11/2019 07:49

jonwig: Re NAV - Still the same valuation problems of unlisted as you so well exposed in respect of Woody's unlisted holdings - Also as well exposed recently we "We DONT Work"!

All unlisted need valuing with a very large sack of salt especially where funding has come through EIS schemes which (IMO) is very discounted money.

The other problem with UK unlisteds is that many get sold onto overseas - usually American companies - before their IP has developed robust and profitable commerial development.

The discount here could therefore be well justified given the risk factors-

The above comment could also apply to MERC after the recent IC golden words. Even the house broker does not see profit for the next couple of years.

[spectoacc] 12/11/2019 07:39

Ha ha @bamboo2, suspect you already know the answer to that question... ;)

But look forwards, not backwards :)

Edit - hadn't noticed TRX, been a popular long lately, due to the belief the fall was Woody-inspired. Perhaps not. Also Link still had nearly 20% at last RNS, tho may have sold some now.

[bamboo2] 12/11/2019 07:32

TRX closed down 75% eod yesterday.

I'm not convinced by the NAV.


edit, I'd be interested to know the top ten commercialisation's of the last two years, and how much value IPO management have added.

[spectoacc] 12/11/2019 07:26

Hmm thanks @Jonwig. As a holder, not sure I like Telegraph ramps! What of the big Invesco selling? What of the cross-holdings? What of the veracity of the NAV?

I'm long, so am generally comfortable with all of the above - but I'm not expecting 110p...

[jonwig] 12/11/2019 07:22

There is a fair chance that the well-documented travails of a big-name fund manager have put many investors off investing in early-stage companies for life.

There is no need to rake over those coals again – but the sad story may be creating an opportunity for contrarian investors in IP Group.

The FTSE 250 company invests in, and works to commercialise, intellectual property (IP) developed by British universities. Its shares have fallen steadily from 250p over the past five years.

Not all of the decline is down to that one money manager’s high-profile problems by any means but his fund’s burning need for cash prompted the very hurried disposal of 142m shares, or 13pc of the total, in IP Group this autumn.

That distressed sale weighed on the share price but, cruel as it may sound, this could present a chance to step in, not least because the stock currently changes hands for barely half of IP Group’s last stated net asset value (NAV) of 110.6p a share.

[bamboo2] 11/11/2019 10:00

Missed this on Friday. Any comment?

====================================

IP Group (LSE:IPO), the developer of intellectual property-based businesses, announces that later today the Company will post a notice of general meeting ('General Meeting') to shareholders. The General Meeting will be held at 11am on 25 November 2019, at the offices of the Company at The Walbrook Building, 25 Walbrook, London EC4N 8AF.

The purpose of the General Meeting is to seek the approval of shareholders for the proposed Capital Reduction and to amend the articles of association of the Company in relation to the borrowing powers of the Company (the 'Article Amendment'). This is primarily being done to give the Company the flexibility to make future purchases of its own shares and/or to make future distributions of profits in cash or specie, although the Company has no immediate intention to do so.

The Capital Reduction involves the cancellation of the amount of GBP584,955,054.58 standing to the credit of the Company's share premium account (the 'Share Premium Reduction') and the capitalisation of GBP372,600,000.00 being the entire amount standing to the credit of the Company's merger reserve by issuing B ordinary shares in the capital of the Company and thereafter to cancel such B ordinary shares (the 'Merger Reserve Reduction' and the Share Premium Reduction and the Merger Reserve Reduction together being the 'Capital Reduction').

The Capital Reduction, if approved by the Court and when it becomes effective, will have the effect of creating distributable reserves and provide the Company with the ability to make purchases of its own shares as permitted by the Companies Act 2006 and in accordance with the resolution passed at the last annual general meeting of the Company held in May 2019 (the '2019 AGM') and/or, subject to the financial performance of the Company and the Companies Act 2006, to make distributions of profits by way of dividend either in cash or in specie. The Capital Reduction would, after taking into consideration the existing negative retained earnings of -GBP67,488,617.00, create distributable reserves to the value of GBP890,066,437.58. Although IP Group has a positive profit and loss reserve at a Group level, it does not currently have distributable reserves at the Company level.

In seeking approval of the Capital Reduction, the directors of the Company (the 'Directors') are not indicating any commitment to buy back any Ordinary Shares or to make any distributions. The Directors will only exercise the authority to purchase the Company's shares if, in the light of market conditions prevailing at the time, they consider that the purchase of such shares can be expected to result in an increase in earnings or net assets per share and is in the best interests of the Company's shareholders (and other stakeholders) generally.

The authority to purchase the Company's shares given at the 2019 AGM is limited to a maximum of 105,914,459 Ordinary Shares, being approximately 10% of the Company's issued share capital as at 17 April 2019. A similar authority is requested at each annual general meeting of the Company.

The proposed Capital Reduction itself will not involve any distribution or repayment of capital or share premium by the Company and will not reduce the underlying net assets of the Company. Following the implementation of the Capital Reduction there will be no change to the Ordinary Shares in issue. No new share certificates will be issued as a result of the proposed Capital Reduction.

The proposed Capital Reduction is not expected to affect outstanding options and awards over the Company's shares granted under its share option schemes.

A copy of the circular containing the Notice of General Meeting will shortly be available on the Company's website at www.ipgroupplc.com/investor-relations.

[guildedge] 01/11/2019 18:18

Xeros was 300p 2 years ago. In December it was 40p. To date this year it's cost IP Group about 2.8m. Small beer really.

This has been one of my main issue with IP Group. The values of their investments just seem to crash over night on bad news.

The one share that did surge they dumped.

Which is one of the reasons you sometimes have to question IP group valuations.

The 550k UT trade was likely a fund buying up more Invesco shares. 200 million shares to be sold. Pends where they stop. Guessing more shares exchanging hands without the trades appearing on stock market.

Could yet get another RNS tonight.Very random timing for these.

[bamboo2] 31/10/2019 16:58

XSG down approx 75%

Round of applause due to the management here for their help in a creating an investing catastrophe of near biblical proportions!

Options all round!

[spectoacc] 31/10/2019 07:09

As they look to have taken most of Invesco's latest selling, am surprised price so well hit.

Invesco still got c.20% to go of course.

[rambutan2] 31/10/2019 03:18

Upped stake to 15%:

[bamboo2] 29/10/2019 07:53

None of this stops management patting themselves on the back though.

On 8/10/2019 they helped themselves collectively to options on 1,134,665 shares.

[guildedge] 28/10/2019 23:51

Invesco down to 20%. This is what is holding back the share. Another arranged trade no doubt. Will they clear all their stock or just topside their holdings? My guess is they may have had enough as she is still below 60p here.

There was a cancelled 2.8m trade from 25th too.

In other news Oxford Nanopore are trying to do a fund raise that will value the firm at 1.6bn. Unclear how much they intend to raise but we know Link Fund Solution the Administrator want to get the cash out of all Woodford's investments. At 18.2% I reckon that values it at 292m for IP Group. High value for a firm turning over 60.8m. Albeit reveue is increasing at a fast rate.

See what happens. Oxford Nanopore is 24% of IP Group entire holding. If it succeeds this share would rise.

[bamboo2] 25/10/2019 19:29

Unfilled gap remains at 45.2-45.4

H&S tp is 10.7, but guess that price will find historical support somewhere between here [57] and approx 30.

[guildedge] 25/10/2019 16:53

Yes I had noted they had been sold to same investor. So looks like all these positions were taken over by Blackrock.

Someone has cleared up 9.5m shares today. No wonder this is back at 57p. Wonder who this seller is? St James Place? Could be other fund that took back shares from Woodford. Unless Invesco are reducing more? Unlikely to get any RNS unless the buyer or Invesco release one.

Ixico breaching 70p. Why did IPO dump it at 30p? Madness.

[spectoacc] 20/10/2019 07:49

@Guildedge - Woody hasn't dumped most of those you mentioned, his holding has simply switched to BlackRock.

@Henchard - interesting, thanks. Valid point I reckon, tho my hope with IPO is that much of the valuation drop (eg the ones in common with Woody) has happened, & that (unlike WPCT) there's some longer term holdings still to come through, not least from Touchstone days.

[henchard] 19/10/2019 23:21

The following may give an idea of the kind of discount to "official" NAV investors in IP Group should be looking for:

"I’ve searched out IP investee companies that have floated on the stock market to see what happened to their valuations when they were subjected to scrutiny and assessment by a much wider pool of investors.
I found five unquoted companies in which IP is a cornerstone investor that came to market via an initial public offering (IPO) in the last five years. The table below summarises my findings.[table]
The average current value (market cap) of the companies is 45% below their average value at IPO. On a per share basis, the picture is even worse, with an average decline in value of 81%, due to dilution via further fundraisings."

[guildedge] 19/10/2019 22:32

Overall the share had a big discount at 55p. However judging from the above many of these firms can lose 40-50% of their value over night. Lot of value seems to be built on future prospect of the firms. With many dropping like a lead ballon when things go wrong. Or shooting up like Ixico when good news comes.

Modern Water suffered from one of it's group companies struggling.

Itaconix is down from 4p to 1.6p. Down about 0.5p since Jul 1st.

[guildedge] 19/10/2019 22:24

Their big success was nearly:
IXICO plc 24p to 64p. Up nearly 200% on year! Albeit it was 30p or so in 2018. Huge increase! 35p gained since Jul-Oct. Of course they would have gained 35p if IP Group hadn't sold their 24% holding at end of May for 30p a share. Why dump a share that is about to rise from 30p to 64p? It was up 5.74% on Friday.

So they dumped a share that was about to surge! Firm has a market cap of 30m. So 7.5m+ could of been gained by waiting.

TRX is down as Woodford just dumped his 20% stake. Causing share to dip from 3.5 to 2.8p.
Ceres Power is doing well. 212p. Was close to 220p 1-2 weeks back.
Modern water is 1.6p. Was 9p a year ago.
Xeros group has gone from 20p to 5.9p. Lost a third since August. Woodford recently dumped 20% of his holdings here. He still has 13% left.
Applied Graphene Materials - Peaked at 34.5p in July. Now 16-17p.
Intelligent ultrasound. Actually up on year. 7.75p to 10p. Peaked at 12-13p.
Mirriad advertising. Started year 16p dropped to 5.5p now back to 16p. They did an IPO.
Deep matter group. Not changed much. 2-3p.
Hvivo. Started year 27p. Now 16p. Woodford dumped most of his holdings here. Seems he has sold a batch of holdings to one company.
Avacta 30p to 16.25p.
Actual experience 210p -114p.
Circassia 48p to 17p on year.
Getech - down 30 down to 26.5p on year.
Diurnal - This seems to shoot up and down like a yoyo.


Apparently Oxford Nanopore is doing well. Not sure how the other unlisted firms are doing.

[spectoacc] 17/10/2019 20:39

And that's going way back to include Touchstone and that other one whose name I forget.

Same seems to be true of all the listed unlisted investors/incubators IMO. And Woody invested in them all...

(I hold IPO, but for the dcb/discount).

[bamboo2] 17/10/2019 20:34

Specto Acc, totally agree.

The only real winners to date are the IPO group management and some of the portfolios companies management.

It's a gravy train alright, tickets for insiders only!

[spectoacc] 17/10/2019 20:18

Standard stuff isn't it - "Hopefully we'll soon be able to stop tapping you, and fund things from redemptions".

No, Alan and Sir Douglas, what shareholders would like is RETURNS.

Needs an activist (like Crystal Amber at ALM) to get involved IMO.

Otherwise it's just "how long can we keep this gravy train running".

[rambutan2] 17/10/2019 19:37

Here's what the CEO and the (new) Chairman said in their last para sum ups in the most recent annual report. As far as I can remember this was a first - perhaps because of the new chairman - for acknowledging that they need to be a proper self sustaining business. However "medium term" didn't instil confidence:

While IP Group is a long-term business where results can and do fluctuate from year to year, the Board is confident that the portfolio can generate significant returns for stakeholders and in the medium term will begin to position the business for transition to a more self-sustaining model. This will allow the Group to sustainably fulfil its mission of supporting outstanding science from around the world from the eureka moment through to maturity.

Alan Aubrey
Chief Executive Officer


Outlook

IP Group's portfolio is both well diversified and maturing and we remain confident that it will deliver appropriate and meaningful returns for stakeholders over the medium to long term. I would like to thank our staff, academic partners and portfolio companies for their commitment and contribution during the year as well as our shareholders for their continued support.

Sir Douglas Flint
Chairman