Ip Share Discussion Threads

[buywell3] 25/9/2019 08:52

The chart says it all

[bjfanc] 25/9/2019 08:38

Shows if you are a forced seller in the public domain, how much you get shafted. Result for buyers as overhang clears.

[bamboo2] 25/9/2019 08:04

FWIW, unfilled gap remains at 45.2-45.4

H&S tp is 10.7
It is likely price would find historical support before reaching this tp.

[bjfanc] 25/9/2019 07:49

Book building was done last night

[hjs] 25/9/2019 07:45

IMO, share price will drop in the morning as Woodford sells his stake today and recover later in the day when the stake is sold to the institutions.....Woodford is a forced seller at a big discount so expect the share price to drop to say 55p or there abouts when it opens.

[newtothisgame3] 25/9/2019 06:17

The Daily Telegraph: Neil Woodford is preparing to ditch healthcare investor IP Group after the company blamed the troubled fund manager for its sluggish half-year performance.

[wilmer100] 18/9/2019 12:22

https://youtu.be/M1RsHQCMRTw

[guildedge] 12/9/2019 17:20

Share is going up and down like a yoyo. Wonder who is buying up all the stock here?

[p1nkfish] 10/9/2019 22:19

Opportunity cost.
Stuck in here during recession and behaviour becomes a problem - urge to exit as it languishes.

I've come to think of IP and others of a similar nature as momentum plays. Not all weather, not reliable. Just look at the chart.

[williamcooper104] 10/9/2019 20:24

Yep it's a double negative in that he depresses NAV of IP investee companies and also of IP itself But ultimately it's just volatility The other thing is that Woodford isn't opening his fund until he's v liquid - so all selling will have happened before then

[williamcooper104] 10/9/2019 20:22

Here's the great thing - there can be a mega recession - and it will make little difference to the success or failure of Nanopore Likewise if First Light Fusion works then all lights blown out (granted that will be a long wait) irrespective of economic cycle

[p1nkfish] 10/9/2019 19:42

The question is when?.Caution increasing.
I agree value realisation will follow but that might be another 3-5 if the expected slowdown hits.

"value realisation will follow thereafter"

[bamboo2] 10/9/2019 19:26

WIM is the big unknown. If and when it reopens will holders look to remove their cash, and if so will Woodford become a forced seller?

[williamcooper104] 10/9/2019 18:46

And I do like Nanopore

[williamcooper104] 10/9/2019 18:45

Positive thing is that there's lots of relativity non-cyclical growth stories - and if they get technology/product that works and is commercially successful then value realisation will follow thereafter The premium in growth is less than it used to be but equally the value of earnings produced is increased by current yield curve - so growth stocks are valued less while traveling and all the greater when they arrive Agree that a few big wins will close the NAV gap I held before - sold - have bought back in - but to give my relatively defensive portfolio a bit of specific risk

[p1nkfish] 10/9/2019 18:32

Illiquid. If they went to cash they wouldn't get to NAV imho.
That's the problem.
The listed section would se price collapse where IPO have a decent % and the unlisted probably more so if buyers could be found at all.

Usually not a problem but with risk off, investors wanting to know if they can exit to cash, a big discount is order of the day.

A couple of decent exits could help but to whom?
The market is not friendly at the mo.

[guildedge] 10/9/2019 17:10

One broker still rates this at 165p or so. (Target. That seems crazy.)

Question is how reasonable are their valuations of these private firm?

110p vs 63p close.
They re evaluated their holdings in many firms. 54M vs (91.3m).
'The largest contributors to unrealised gains on the revaluation of investments were Istesso Limited (£24.7m) and First Light Fusion Limited (£10.4m). These unrealised gains were principally offset by unrealised losses on the revaluation of PsiOxus Therapeutics Limited (£10.9m), Topivert Limited (£10.7m), AIM-quoted Circassia Pharmaceuticals plc (£8.4m), Impression Technologies Limited (£7.2m), Autifony Therapeutics Limited (£7.1m) and Creavo Medical Technologies Limited (£6.5m)2F[3].'

Group lost 49.5m. Of which 36.7m from it's portfolio. So it's burnt through 13m in other costs. They lost nearly 293.8 million in 2018. When will the portfolio start to actually rise in value? At what point will Woodford decide to sell up in some of these other investments?

What is fair vaule here? Why does the market discount the value by 40%? The reality is if they decided to sell up everything today they would likely not get near 1.1bn.

Perhaps the Woodford taint is holding this back. That an where investors value will come from long term.

[bjfanc] 10/9/2019 07:47

Just under 40 per cent discount to NAV.

[guildedge] 09/9/2019 17:11

Closed at 69.5p. So up 15p from the low. Does this mean seller is clear now? Someone is definately buying here. All speculation on no news? I have not done the maths on all their investments here.

Maybe the view is the assets are worth more than the current share price? See what happens.

[bamboo2] 09/9/2019 16:55

My last market price based chart shows a potential turn for today.
If I had to say one way or the other, I'd say we are at or very near an interim high.

[guildedge] 07/9/2019 23:46

Could be 1-2 funds involved here.T Rowe Price and Fidelity? Morningstar suggests both have holdings here now?


FT also shows these 2 in major shareholders?
Telstra Super Pty Ltd.as of 02 Aug 2019 16.80m 1.59%
Progeny 3, Inc.as of 02 Aug 2019.

Has the share actually fallen too far? It's a positive sign if funds are buying in at these prices? I still don't see where the investors return is long term unless the share prices starts to rise and one of these investment becomes the next Google. So far yet to happen.

[bamboo2] 06/9/2019 14:22

Ints out early next week.
I guess this is a speculative bounce.
Anyone here buying it?

[bamboo2] 29/8/2019 08:30

Contagion probably not limited to Woodford.
Haven't checked how Invesco are performing, anyone else?

Guy on Gloomberg mentioning some passive funds as sitting targets. Not sure of the specifics.

[p1nkfish] 29/8/2019 08:27

Lack of transparency on the unlisted element. They can go down hard and fast but a likely delay before IPO shareholders find out.

Coming crunch, not yet showing in the real world but IPO a harbinger along with others that lack transparency and liquidity.

My observation is now hindsight so none too useful but not finished yet so think still more downside.

[spectoacc] 29/8/2019 06:54

Agree, going lower and NAV going a lot lower. Woody has to sell - but to whom?