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Iofina Share Discussion Threads
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|Thought so, you have mail.|
|Black and ....|
I have March/April as the start of the turn. The wait for RB to close seems to go on forever. In cash terms they must be running on vapour by now.
Re some of your comments I believe I can point to something that may confirm part of what you say via the web.|
Any hint re the source for the comments. I had found something which suggested part of it but being google translate and the topic it was hard to be sure.|
|I don't know if anyone is interested in VRS but I think there is a fair chance graphene is going to be used in F1 via Mclaren in a launch this Friday.
Comments found support that. I have no doubt that any graphene they use (if in F1) is that supplied by VRS
On top of that I found some good detail re graphene ink and the acquisition which seems to have them as the world lead in the area. On the back of that a tip type article came out in the last hour or so.
Still a supply there which may be City finance, but if F1 do have it and VRS can say it then what a great name to have using your product
There is a more relevant source media item to appear soon.
F1 folk seemed to miss a comment by the racing director so I've fired someone up today and pointed out the comments to them. Putting them on pole position in their industry :-)|
|Couldn't resist some more TRIN. 25p-75p range is my hope, at this price think it's worth a buy.|
|So are death, nurses, and taxes.........|
the fat controller
|Just a matter of time|
|TRIN pushing onwards and upwards.|
|Interesting article in today's Wall St. Journal. Price of copper up 40% this year. Last year's glut led to cuts in production and current undersupply. Ring a bell?|
|IODINE TINCTURE BP 25ML
|Does anybody have a link to Iodine spot price and price charts?
|OSB, target set from last August more or less met now, a couple of pence off 400p.However, I have no intention of selling at this point.Scrutable, REDS I have heard others mentioning, a lot of the growth is in the price, P/E 31 moving down to 14 in 2018.They clearly are doing something right.I prefer CTO as its so lowly rated, cyclical of course and low margin, I'm well aware, but 100p seems a reasonable target.|
|Spot price of iodine stable in Q1 2017.
Cosayach have recently reduced their iodine production
I have March/April down for the start of the long awaiting build of a IO2 type plant, which should push the company into profitable even at current prices.
The 2 year drought just maybe coming to an end IMO dyor|
|i agree that CTO is now "popping". It's a mature, long lived, top quality, large buiding refurbisher, come back after a serious set-back, a bad fraud, but there is much more to come.
At the same time the nearly one year old competing, tiddler share RedstoneConnect (REDS) is specialising in the smartness, ie efficiency of new buildings, and after several £5-£12m contracts with UBS, UBM ,Westfield, Milton Keynes Council,RFU,and Glaxo is possibly about to go live on the not well kept secret: Google's stunning future London HQ at King's Cross.An imminent maiden FY report should attract attention.
Not a bad reference list for such a tiny (£28m) company|
|Thanks for the post madchick, an encouraging read.We just need the iodine price to turn upwards.|
|What is the chemical division worth, more than the Mcap, the share price is just ridiculous.
We just need a new demand for iodine, new product that uses tons of iodine...|
|Awolagain & Superg1 - Thanks for your comments.
Let's hope a rise in demand (and price) for Iodine justifies the opening of 1 or even 2 new plants this year as Madchick is hoping for. I agree with Madchick that any recovery will be a slow and bumpy ride.|
|To get to £2.50/share -
Basis, 500 tpa M.Cap 15* op cash flow. Each $1 price increase in iodine drops through as £400k/yr. If you run those figures to hit that target iodine would need to rise to $53/kg. Not impossible but I think IOF said mid 40's is a sensible price at present.
Of course another plant in the right place doing say another 250 tpa changes the target iodine price. 750 tpa would need an iodine price of around $35/kg.
All that is possible but only a dream at present. When price wars get personal especially when a player is a private company ego's take hold and common sense is the loser.
I hold and will continue to do so. The main trigger for an iodine price move is when demand exceeds supply and that's what I have to wait for. Of course legal events in Chile could force the issue as well.|
|Madchick, many thanks for the clear and thorough report, much appreciated.
Now feel more optimistic about the company going forward.|
|CTO materially undervalued IMHO, up 10p since highlighting this week.|
It depends what happens in the iodine market. We can see why SQM took the price down.
SQM as I understand it expected RB to close quickly and had been checking sat images regularly to could up when they would stop creating heaps.
What I and many other didn't think of was the ability of the liquidators to create some cash for them and mates.
It made no sense that a backer loaned £13 mill for proceedings but did when tax rebates seemed to exactly pay off hefty fees interest and the loan in full.
The liquidators called the iodine mine worthless but the mystery lender popped up early last year with $25 mill to convert $22 mill of loans and $3 mill working capital.
I have no doubt at all a very convenient tax refund for the previous closed ALP will appear happen to cover that loan, handsome fees and the interest plus all the fees and costs of the liquidators.
On the price drop it doesn't affect the chem div so much as the end product doesn't price crash. IOF are niche and in some cases unique in what they supply. Then iodine isn't necessarily in the end product it's just a catalyst for chemicals and gases etc. They also do other non iodine products
The key for extra cash is the excess production and as soon as they expand opex drops as they have much better sites than most current plants. Then an expansion would come on the back of demand and a price hike.
500mt could be become 1000mt by the addition of 2 plants. The obvious plan is to sit tight and wait for the market demand to be there.
End user inventories are skeleton as stated by SQM and others. That's what buyers do in a price drop market. Any sign of a decent price rise and they stock up like mad and create a supply crisis amplifying the price hike.
SQM got in so deep and have lost so much in the price war they have no option but to keep going until they have achieved their objective.
In theory the weak peso, low oil price in accounts terms will allow them to show a slight profit. But when the iodine produced now and through the last few months goes through the books, the stronger peso and higher oil price will erode the margin.
As we know they have been also illegally extracting water just like Cosayach did.|
|I see madchick put a huge summary of the Agm 2016 notes. As if anyone would believe what is said there ; missed forecast after missed forecast, management staements that just didnt bear up to scrutiny!
Jeepers i wouldnt waste my time with that complete and utter guff!|
Not replying for Madchick, but my views are:
1) We have a sustainable business with proven tech
2) The BOD have a clear vision for the future
3) The BOD are running at a speed that suites the Iodine Market not our time frame
4) The Lance period was development time and will not come again..sadly!
5) The 'Buy' American might just do us a favour
6) The over supply in the market will dry up at some point (Iodine)
7) The price will recover, slowly (Iodine)
8) We will expand, slowly and I expect one Plant this year some time
9) As long as we don't touch the funds we raised for 'normal operating costs' we will survive.
10) Our share price will recover once the seller is finished, who is it I don't know?
I am in so deep here it is now a case of loss management as I don't expect to see 100p for several years, if ever again.
At these prices yes it is a very good level to buy.|