Invocas Share Discussion Threads

[diogenesj] 28/6/2006 11:56

Good morning, NB (if it is still morning). Very good results, just about on target as you would expect (since the float came at the end of the year).

As you say the business looks very sound and better established than some of the others. It seems also to be rapidly increasing its share of the (slower growing) Scottish market. I wish I had bought the shares on flotation, but they do seem quite fully valued at the moment. If anyone has the note and new forecasts presumably issued by Charles Stanley today, I'd very much like to see them.

[nobrainer31] 28/6/2006 07:43

Results excellent. INVO is the slowest growing but it feels like the safest. It's making a big profit and with 7 qualified practitioners its a good medium term play.The expansion plans suggest much faster growth as well imo.

[diogenesj] 26/6/2006 13:58

Well, actually the figures quoted above (in Nobrainer's post No. 18) seem to show that Scottish PTDs are up only 20% year on year, while IVAs in the rest of the UK are up about 100%. So my impression is that debt companies south of the border have much more scope for exceptionally rapid growth (and of them I see Debtmatters and Accuma as significantly undervalued, especially Debtmatters after their recent results and brokers' upgrades).

[abundance99] 26/6/2006 12:47

A little addition....

If they do £2.5m profit then, after tax, with 28,566,585 shares in issue that is EPS of 6p and P/E of just under 30.

DFD and DEBT are growing faster currently but debt is as much of not more of a problem in Scotland and INVO's growth rate is only going to go in one direction IMHO.

[abundance99] 26/6/2006 12:31

Results due this Wednesday but a very quiet board!

I'm hoping to see continued solid growth. Forecasts are for turnover of £6.1m and profit of £2.45m for the full year to Mar 06.

Good luck to all holders!

[abundance99] 09/5/2006 08:58

I'm thinking that the situation in Scotland is basically a couple of years behind the English situation. It was the same with house prices.

I had a look back at the predictions. It looks like INVO has made £1.5m in the first half of the year but the overall predictions are for only £2.5m. Is this to take into account some sort of one-off cost does anyone know? Or have the forecasts yet to catch up?

[nobrainer31] 08/5/2006 18:36

A bit of recent data from Scotland which seems to get less coverage.

Personal insolvency in Scotland jumps almost 40%
Corporate Recovery 05 May 2006


KPMG Partner says not enough being done to help those in debt
Number of Scots entering Protected Trust Deeds up 20%
Alarming figures just the tip of the iceberg
In contrast, the Scottish corporate failure rate has actually improved

The number of people going bankrupt in Scotland continues to soar. In the first 3 months of 2006, 1,241 Scots were sequestrated, the Scottish legal term for being made bankrupt, representing a 37% increase from this time last year (Jan-Mar 2005: 908). There has also been an increase in the number of Scots who have signed up to a Protected Trust Deed* (PTD). Increasingly seen as an alternative to bankruptcy, PTDs are a formal repayment plan with creditors to prevent bankruptcy action being taken against the individual. During the first 3 months of 2006, 1,864 people signed a PTD, an increase of 20% compared to the same period last year (Jan-Mar 2005: 1,553).

The gloomy picture in Scotland was mirrored south of the border, as individual bankruptcies in the UK also soared to a record high of 15,389 during the first quarter of 2006, up from 10,175 12 months ago (a 51% increase).

Last year saw a 50% jump in sequestrations as a record number of Scots became insolvent. With 4,965 filing for bankruptcy during 2005, today's figures show that the worrying rise in consumer debt shows no sign of slowing anytime soon.

Blair Nimmo, Head of Restructuring for KPMG in Scotland: "The first quarter of this year is much worse than 12 months ago, and these figures continue an alarming trend as they show a significant increase in personal bankruptcy levels. But worryingly, today's report may just be the tip of the iceberg as there are thousands more Scots who are struggling under the burden of spiralling debts."

"A new bankruptcy bill will be shortly be put to the Scottish parliament, and in tandem with this, a consultation process on PTDs is currently underway. Whilst this is all very well, my own view is that neither of these legislative measures will actually tackle the route cause of why so many Scots are in serious financial difficulty. There has to be more focus by the government on financial education, particularly in schools, and until more is done to address the route causes of personal insolvency, I'm afraid we will see these figures continue to rise."

"There can be a variety of reasons why people get into debt, including marriage break ups, unemployment and health problems, but it is the fact that society is simply spending more that has resulted in the higher level of insolvencies which we are now seeing. Consumers are becoming increasingly gripped by a "spend now, pay later" culture, and many have little concern about how they are going to repay their debts."

Nimmo continued: "As a result of the considerable growth in the UK property market, the gap between average earnings and house prices has increased significantly over the last decade. Coupled with high employment and low interest rates, this has led to consumer borrowing reaching record levels."

"In recent years, consumers have been cushioned from the reality of high debt by a strong housing market, but these figures show that the debt burden has now become unmanageable for many. Rising tax and fuel costs together with a slow down in the housing market are beginning to bite, and as a result, consumers are now struggling to pay back their loans. It is unlikely that today's rise in personal bankruptcies has reached its peak, and the worry for many is what will happen if interest rates rise."

Protected Trust Deeds

New research by KPMG shows that there has also been an increase in the number of Scots who have signed up to a Protected Trust Deed* (PTD). Increasingly seen as an alternative to bankruptcy, PTDs are a formal repayment plan with creditors to prevent bankruptcy action being taken against the individual. During the first 3 months of 2006, 1,864 people signed a PTD, an increase of 20% compared to the same period last year (Jan-Mar 2005: 1,553).

Nimmo commented: "Earlier this year we saw a dramatic increase in the number of people calling debt help lines and the Citizens Advice Bureau. Those calls for help are driving this latest leap in PTDs and, to a lesser extent, bankruptcy."

According to KPMG's analysis of Protected Trust Deed data, the average debtor proposing a PTD owes a total of £56,753, which is higher than the average bankrupt's debts of £46,587. More than half of PTDs (53%) involve debts of £20-50,000, whereas nearly half of bankrupts (45%) owe less than £20,000. Nimmo said: "It is interesting to see those with larger debts turning to the PTD, which is a more flexible solution to their problems."

Blair Nimmo continued: "The PTD is an increasingly popular way forward for many people in financial difficulty. A previously little known procedure, the PTD has emerged from the shadows and is now a fully accepted and better understood solution for those with unmanageable debts. Creditors, in the right circumstances, also prefer this as a way forward, as they see a significantly greater return on their money than they would do from bankruptcy."

The latest analysis of consumer bankruptcy in the US shows the lowest level for 20 years. Filings in the first quarter of 2006 totalled 102,949, compared to 381,743 in the same quarter in 2005. Nimmo adds: "Although most of this fall may be attributed to the tightening of the US bankruptcy code in the autumn of last year, it is interesting to see personal insolvencies in the US falling at a time when the increases in the UK show no sign of abating."

Corporate failure rate

While the personal insolvency numbers in Scotland continued to increase, the corporate bankruptcy figures actually improved. The number of Scottish company insolvencies in the first 3 months of the year fell by 9% to 128. This compares 140 for the same period last year. In England and Wales, corporate insolvency actually jumped 17% to 3,439 in the first quarter of the year, compared to 2,940 last year.

Blair Nimmo commented: "Last year, Scotland's business failure rate actually bucked the UK trend by dropping 14% compared to an increase south of the border. This put Scottish company liquidations at their lowest levels since 1998. These latest figures continue that trend, with corporate insolvency falling by 9% compared to a 17% increase in England and Wales."

Nimmo concluded: "Our experience tells us that the businesses who are surviving are keeping an eye on the financial, strategic and external ball and identifying warning signs as early as possible. Unfortunately we still see many companies that leave it until it's too late before seeking advice, and it's enormously frustrating to see a company hit the wall that could have potentially been turned around if only they sought help earlier."

-Ends-

[nobrainer31] 08/5/2006 18:02

Bought another 7500 today..hate paying the spread but Invo's year has already ended at 30th April so there could be a Trading statement at anytime.

[gucci] 27/4/2006 00:34

very quiet here?
waiting for a breakout soon imho

[diogenesj] 11/4/2006 15:11

May have to do the same: I badly underestimated these. :-(

[nobrainer31] 11/4/2006 11:27

Well, a bit annoying there's been no real dip on INVO since its floated.I've had no real excuse to buy since my small allocation in the float.With DEBT, DFD,ACG expanding in some style and still beating expectations , it looks like INVO is just going to keep rising.Will have to plunge in for more and just pay the price at this rate!

[choppa] 06/4/2006 21:14

Another tick up today.

[gucci] 05/4/2006 12:35

looking beautiful

[specul8or2] 04/4/2006 13:09

Joined the club at 167p. Same as DFD and ACG, lovely stuff. I wonder if Invocas can sort out Gordon Browns treasury debt problems, as he would be forced to go to a Scottish company according to Scottish law! ;-)

[gucci] 31/3/2006 10:54

i'm in yep!!
roll on 230p

[diogenesj] 28/3/2006 14:28

Well done, chaps - didn't think this would go so far so soon.

Taking today's price (171p), the Charles Stanley ptp forecasts I have seen somewhere, and the implied eps (allowing for 30% tax, which I think you overlooked, A99), I get the following:

2006 ptp £2.45m eps 6.01p pe 28.45x
2007 ptp £3.23m eps 7.92p (+31.78%) pe 21.59x
2008 ptp £4.28m eps 10.49p (+32.45%) pe 16.30x

Nice growth forecast, but nothing like as nice as that forecast for ACG, DEBT, and DFD, all of which (especially ACG) now look better value to me. But WTFDIK?

[abundance99] 27/3/2006 13:17

I bought in today. I remember Invo being mentioned on a DFD thread and the Telegraph article yesterday brought them back to mind.

There are several reasons why I was tempted to take the plunge:

- Much lower PE than comparable companies in England. They made a profit of 2m before tax for the year ended 31/3/05. Turnover for the 6 months to Sept represented almost 68% of the previous years turnover and so I am assuming that turnover for the year about to end will have grown by maybe 50%. A similar rise in profits would have it on a PE of 15 for the year past and looking at a PE of maybe 10 for the year to Mar 07. Far lower than DFD, DEBT etc. The Telegraph mentioned a PE of 19 with the shares at 146. Anyone know where the came by this figure or whether there are forecasts for this year? My calculations on my own back-of-a-fag-packet sums based on the figures in the Admission to AIM document.

- From the small amount of reading that I have done it would appear that the Scottish market for the sort of work that Invo are doing is a little behind the English. This augurs well for the numbers mentioned above.

- Invo would seem to be the largest company working in this sector in Scotland which gives advantages with recommending organisations.

- They work in Scotland - which is where I live!

- The work that they do has a positive public good - allowing people who have gotten into debt a positive way out of the problem.

Final question - anyone know when the results are out?

Good luck to all holders!

[johnny1982] 26/3/2006 15:48

THIS IS money recommeneded another personal debt company,cant recall which one, but looks like the sector is set for more press exposure. Sunday Tele have Invo as a buy

[morgannn] 24/3/2006 01:23

I hold dfd ,debt and acg all of which have flown.If you believe the level of personal debt in this Kingdom ,especially Scotland is sustainable don't buy Invocas.I shall be adding it to my portfolio shortly.Incidentally my brokers tried to get an allocation but it was allready oversubscribed.Cold and raining in Cork.

[Abuse team] 20/3/2006 21:47

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[geraldus] 20/3/2006 20:32

On my watch list also.A good initial rise without too much of a fanfare.

[Abuse team] 19/3/2006 19:23

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[erjenkins] 19/3/2006 19:20

same with me, hoping for a drop back closer to the issue price but we'll see.