Invltd Nm Share Discussion Threads

[tpaulbeaumont] 20/12/2004 07:54

so whens GOLD gonna start making headway? if $USD sinks below 80? if equity markets snap? i really cant see it doing much for a few months imho

[energyi] 19/12/2004 20:58

Yeah, Red.

Sorry we didnt have much chance to speak at the Advfn bash.
It would be interesting to hear more of your thoughts on the subject.
Have you seen the Really Useful GOLD thread? Or the MINE thread?

[opthalmist] 19/12/2004 14:24

or china - 25% of my pension going in Pacific ex. Japan.

[red army] 19/12/2004 14:09

If all of this should happen then there is only one sure investment - GOLD

[energyi] 19/12/2004 11:19

$5 Trillion of Oil in the Caspian Sea?
The "New Great Game", says Lutz Cleaverman

[energyi] 19/12/2004 11:05

Trojan,

YES. Dont forget that the Four Year "Presidential Cycle"
turns down for 1-2 years from sometime between now and May 2005

[trojan] 19/12/2004 11:03

A very interesting post and not too far fetched imo!

[energyi] 19/12/2004 10:58

Listening to year-end analysis, and prospects for 2005, I have come across a great resource which is this weekend's interview on FinancialSense.com.
Here's the Link: : // :

...
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Charts: U.S. Interest rates, not keeping up with Rising Prices, including Oil
Below: S&P500 (SPX). : 10yr.TBondsRate (TNX) : Gold Bugs Index (HUI)
........
...


KEY POINTS:
+ Rising growth in the US and China, has meant that these two giants are using increasing amounts of energy and commodities. Where will those resources come from?

+ Traditional sources are depleting. The North Sea is running out. So are Alaska and the US Gulf. We are at or near "Peak Oil", the point where oil production begins to decline. This is not an economic issue, it is geological. The easy-to-find oil has been found. Incremental oil and gas is harder to find, more expensive to produce. Thus a real energy crisis is coming, not one that will be solved by more production, like in 1974-1980.

+ The new sources of oil will be in countries around the Caspian Sea. There is likely to be a war between the US and China (or their proxies) over this oil. In particular, Iran is a place to watch.

+ Meantime, the US has had a strong currency, which is in demand as a reserve currency, and as a medium for exchange for global trade. Exporting countries Japan and China have been big buyers of the US currency, which helps to keep their own currencies from getting too strong. But the US has big problems: Big trade and budget deficits. The US cannot go on absorbing the lion's share of the world's savings, particularly when that imported money is going towards unsustainable consumer spending.

+ Thus, the USA is particularly vulnerable to a shift in demand away from its currency. A weaker dollar will mean much higher oil prices, particularly in dollar terms. And this will push up US inflation, and US interest rates. The property sector is likely to be hard-hit by higher rates. And the US government will be unable to meet its social security commitments. The US living standard will decline. People will be angry. Politicians will exploit it.

+ The US government is essentially bankrupt. It will be unable to meet its commitments to it own citizens (as Baby-boomers retire) and to foreigners UNLESS it prints massive amounts of money. This will serve to devalue its currency (increasing oil & other import prices), and eventually put up long term interest rates. A Brazil or Argentina-type crisis could come, where the currency plummets, rates rise, and the economy declines sharply.

+ China will be the worlds next great power. It will face some chaos and readjustment, lasting for a few years, but after that it will emerge as THE world power, as the US declines.

+ Commodities are the place to be, probably for at least 5 years or more. But they will not go up in a straight line.

See:

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STORM UPDATES & related Links:
Prudent Bear's.....:
Blackstone's Charts:
Dow Chart......: :