Invista Share Discussion Threads

[hieronymous1] 26/9/2011 17:50

A deflationary crash will look like a man with a cow-lick and a toothbrush moustache offering nice simple solutions and someone (else) to blame.

[hosede] 26/9/2011 17:35

Hieronymous
You are obviously not in the South East, where prices are still lunatic! But I tend to agree. To my mind we have had a 30+ year credit fuelled asset mania and it will take about the same time for the debt to be repaid (or written off) and the mania prices to return to the "norm".
Just as we laugh that someone paid 1 million guilders for a single tulip bulb in an earlier mania, I think in (say) a hundred years time people will be astonished that someone paid &76 million for a bit of board with some sunflowers painted on one side, or that we paid people £10 million a year to kick a football about - they managed quite happily on £20 a week in 1958!
Hyperinflation is only one possible outcome - I'm not sure exactly what the bottom of a massive deflationary crash will look like.

[hieronymous1] 26/9/2011 12:49

hosede

Thirty years? The two bed terrace I live in has already dropped from around £85,000 four years back to £60,000 now. On a good day. Fortunately I don't intend leaving except feet first. Only a few buy to let landlords with cash are buying. The lenders want a 300 per cent deposit. Not a typo, I am being sarcastic. The landlords are in for a shock as more and more people are thrown out of work and cannot afford to pay their rent.

Hyperinflation is decades off while we have governments all trying to cut expenditure and raise taxes at the same time. We are in for a thirties style slump.

[hosede] 26/9/2011 12:34

Enviro
That's one view, but I still think this is a deflationary crash and the price of everything will descend over the next (say) thirty years to sensible levels. (Like for examle 50k for a small 2 bed house) Wages will not inflate while there's double digit unemployment. Hyperinflation is of course a risk if govts. go in for massive money printing.

[envirovision] 26/9/2011 12:14

So far hosede it has entailed inflation and currency devaluation via a banquet of ulta low interest rates & QE. With further QE on the way and extended lowered rates into the distant future the only repricing will be currency.

Property loans are already priced at record fractions of rental incomes (or individual wages for residential). Once people realise taking the family for a Big Mac is expensive and then wage inflation starts to take hold, how long will it be before the average property starts to look really cheap again?

I should think by the time things gets back to resembling anything like normal there wont be anything left that needs repricing. (other than property upwards).

[hosede] 26/9/2011 11:46

Hieronymous
The problem is that we spent the next generation's money (much of it on ludicrously overpriced assets) and now we have to pay it back which entails repricing of those assets to sensible levels.

[hieronymous1] 23/9/2011 20:43

No, just a sense of history, eyes to see and ears to hear.

The company and the economy in general are facing political problems which are beyond the company's power to control. The company must wait until the world regains its sanity.

Shareholders can wait with it or sell up at whatever loss. Then buy shorts on an index, gold or tins of baked beans as they prefer.

[badtime] 23/9/2011 18:17

ooo..u do u hav a little room on a pier and a glass ball?

[hieronymous1] 22/9/2011 21:09

Gary

We will crash through the 2009 lows and keep on going.

Given that the witch doctors running the world are determined to cut and cut and cut until everyone but their lunatic selves is out of a job... the real risk is a return to the 1930s. A very profitable period for builders of monumental architecture, especially in Germany.

The problems are not economic but political.

[gary1966] 22/9/2011 11:54

Skyship,

From a chart perspective are we now in danger of returning to 2009 lows?

Gary

[envirovision] 19/9/2011 16:42

This is getting desperate. A total failure to add any value is resulting in a pathetic share price.

[cwa1] 19/9/2011 09:02

Offer update

19 September 2011

This announcement is not an announcement of a firm intention to make an offer under Rule 2.7 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Code") and there can be no certainty that an offer will be made, nor as to the terms on which any offer will be made.

On 19 August 2011, Invista Foundation Property Trust Limited (the "Company") announced that it had received an approach in relation to a possible offer for the Company from Picton Property Income Limited.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Picton Property Income Limited must, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 17 October 2011, either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company including the terms of that offer in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline will only be extended with the consent of the Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.

[skyship] 09/9/2011 07:53

Hosede - you can of course view those staistics you quote in two lights;

1. Retail - this sector has of course been the strongest performing property category in recent times

2. Southern bias - the South has of course been the strongest performing geographical sector in recent times

Nevertheless, as Badtime concurs, a little caution in the Markets is understandable in these troubled times.

[badtime] 08/9/2011 20:57

pays to b cautious now and again

[hosede] 08/9/2011 18:17

SKYSHIP
I am still a bit cautious here. I don't like the fact that 70% of the portfolio is in the "South" where valuations are way out of kilter with the rest of the country, and that 24% is in retail - a potential disaster area. In the event of a major financial crash and renewed recession with banks/financials either going under or moving abroad on account of the 50% tax rate or new banking regulations southern commercial property values could fall up to 25% (IMO). I agree the LTV and rent covenants are not too onerous, but... I only have a small holding..

[gary1966] 07/9/2011 15:00

Picked a few more up at 35.163p earlier. I was commenting the other day that when the markets dropped over the last few days that my riskier assets held up well. I am wondering if there is going to be a return to riskier assets up until the end of the year and the safer higher yielding stuff may be knocked back a little. Obama and his jobs plan may help commodities and riskier assets for a while.

[skyship] 07/9/2011 14:53

Strewth - offered @ 35.25p again - that's a 10% yield!

I just don't understand this.

Yet another bull point is the Government's attack on the planning regs - should help with rezoning of the former BBC site for residential.

Everything looks right here - with the single exception of the share price

[gary1966] 07/9/2011 14:02

Thought I had done well to buy some more at 36p the other day. Looking a bit premature at the moment.

[speedsgh] 06/9/2011 17:02

Initially thought that it was giving them authority to issue equity/raise more funds but afaics any shares have to be issued at a price no less than NAV. Aren't most share issues usually at a discount to NAV? Perhaps this authority is linked in some way to the proposed merger with PCTN?

[skyship] 06/9/2011 16:35

AGM Special Resolution. Anyone have any idea what that was about?

[skyship] 06/9/2011 14:12

AGM was at 10.00AM - so obviously nothing to report. Pity - expected more!

Should at least have been a statement on the Plantation House situation...

[hosede] 05/9/2011 16:28

I doubt the Euro will last 2000 years - it might not even last 200 days 8-)

[skyship] 05/9/2011 16:26

"Morale is plainly recovering as you can see in the continued disparagement of the Vatican and its minions by the Irish Parliament."

Agreed - the diminishing subservience to the Holy See has to be good sign for Ireland's future.