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|nghomi: SteMiS, I'd expect a sudden rise in TQN share price before any significant anouncement made on Puquios. I take the recent rise in the share price a simple reaction to the fact that copper prices hit an all-time high recently and the market knew before us that CK had bought a few more shares after results were announced. TQN share prices have barley changed since last November while IVK was almost halved at 102p. Remember that we valued IVK's shares at $4.40 when we paid for TQN.|
As Kimboy2 suggests selling TMC or IVK shares are both be translated to dilution of IVK assets per share.
I am not suggesting that IVK sells entire TMC holdings by any means but I can see what you are saying. You are saying that it is better to have TMC shares than cash.
Imagine the following scenarios:
1) IVK sells ~400k TMC shares to raise approximately £1.0m before 10th of Jan. Then I could easily beleive that the recent placing would go through (i.e. 3m shares at 191p as the current exchange rate is £1= AUS$2.25).
IVK would have 0.145 TMC share for every IVK share
IVK would have 35p cash per share
2) IVK fails to complete the recent placing. So it would be forced to issue 5m shares to raise the same amount of money at 135p per share.
IVK would have 0.152 TMC shares for every IVK share
IVK would have 31p cash per share.
You could see that in the above simple example while IVK has more cash per share in the first case scenario, TMC asset is slightly less than that in the second case scenario. So what you are saying is that 0.007 shares of TMC is a lot more valueable than 4p cash per share in the long run. So you are assuming that TMC share price will be £10, so 0.007 of TMC share will be 7p which is better than 4p.|
|nghomi: strow, if they fail to raise their required funds, imo IVK share price would sink to sub 100p quite easily. Las Pascualas, belitung and UMC require fresh funding to survive as a viable projects. So imo 10th of Jan EGM is fairly critical for the health of the share price. Perhaps IVK would need to off load 2% to 3% of TMC to boost their balance sheet before 10th of Jan in order to get successful fund raising at 188p and 240p (convertable bonds). imo the share price would not be anywhere close to 150p by the 10th of Jan, it would be either a lot higher or a lot lower!|
|nghomi: peroman and SteMiS,
IVK valuation is very complex to say the least imo. Also the investment companies are always traded at a discount to their assets. We have this converable bonds in sight as well which could dilute ~10% of the company. But I summerise my thinking in deriving the current values of various IVK's assets:
2) BNC = ~£22m. IVK owns 18% of BNC. I have "guessed" the value of BNC based on TMC market cap of £75m. I have put BNC part of TMC at £66m and TMC has 54% of BNC, then we get £22m for IVK's share.
3) Las Pascualas: I have used TNQ market cap to guess Las Pascualas value. TNQ owns 51% of Las Pascualas and market cap is £4.0m. So 70% of Las Pascualas cannot be less than £5.5m
4) imo UEP is a write off at the moment (based on what is announced by UEP) last Friday. It is unknown how much UEP needs to re-do phase I of feasibility study. BNZ is a fully funded company with several million pounds funding. So 40% of it is probably at least £1.5m.
I have tried to be conservative in my valuations but I have to say that the credit crunch could potentially dilute IVK's assets imo. Perhaps this is one of the reasons for 30% discount on the share price.
One more thing to be cautious about is the BNC project. I am concerned about the 140k tone of ore awaiting to be shipped. I am inclined to think that BNC is struggling to find buyers at a good price. Perhaps this is another reason to discount IVK's share price on ( TMC + BNC).
Overal, imo IVK's share price is not expensive at these levels provided we do not see a slowdown in Chinese economy in coming years.|
My analysis is a little different from your but the outcome is pretty much the same. At current prices I make IVK share price about 29% discount to the sum of its parts.
Actually I make its interests in TMC and berong to be worth about 188p, so pretty much the rest (TQN, Tommy, UEP, BNZ) is in for free.|
|buetowa: I've noticed that the TMC share price has gone up by around 10%. What % value does the TMC holding represent of the overall IVK share price?|
|nghomi: "IVK selling its holding of TMC can't happen really as they only took on the investment 2 years ago and its now starting to make money, worth hanging on to if possible."
The way I see is that IVK has the following options to proceed with Las Pascaulas project:
1) Issue up to 6 million shares say at 200p to 250p per share and raise £12m to £15m:
Of course IVK has the autorisation to place up to 6 million shares until mid August. However, the way the share price is heading, this option seems to me is becoming less likely. But I could be wrong.
2) Sell some of the assets e.g. TMC
Interesting enough 11% of TMC is almost the same as 6 million IVK shares. IVK invested in TMC 14 months ago and they paid only 108p per share for 11% of the company. One more note that IVK does not require any serious money for Las Pascaulas until the middle of next year. So IVK could realised £10m to £20m (assuming TMC share price would be between 350p to 700p) until June 08. Incidently, somebody is dumping blocks of 25000 TMC shares to the market in the last four weeks, could it be IVK?
3) Of course IVK could sell part (or all) of her shares in Las Pascaulas to a third party so that the cost of this development could be shared. Say the total value of LAs Pascaulas is £15m, so the third party would also contribute £15m so that IVK's interest would be halved.
4) Berong revenue: Personally I do not beleive that Berong could generate enough cash (say £15m) until the middle of next year. But I could be wrong.
5) A bit of all of the above options!
While I believe that the placing is not the only option for IVK, I also believe that CK would choose the best option for the benefit of its shareholders. If CK chooses the placing, this means he has identified the placing as the best option.|
|wazza208: The way i see it, Chris Kyriakou has been buying IVK of late not TMC, which has to mean something, he's the major shareholder of both companies after all?
IVK selling its holding of TMC can't happen really as they only took on the investment 2 years ago and its now starting to make money, worth hanging on to if possible.
Also if no other company wants the shares they would have to sell direct to market which would slash TMCs' share value, and incidently Chris Kyriakou's own interests. (money)
Its in my ISA as well which means all my profits are mine, unlike short term TMC traders who will have to pay 40% tax unless they hold for a few years, i doubt the hot money has the patience for that.
It depends what deal they get for the share dilution as well, time must be close to being up on their deadline for a decision, which could still go either way IMO.
And maybe in 12-18 months time they wouldn't need to dilute at all as they would have a good income from Berong and potentially enough money, with perhaps a small loan (i'm sure a bank wouldn't refuse them).
Also the Las Pascualas project can't start until early next year, it might be worth hanging on to TMC but it is an option and i would agree with both views.
I still think this is better than TMC purely because of the following.
1/ tax reasons (ISA)
2/ less dependance on 1 metal project (nickel forecast to drop in value)
3/ IVK is cheaper in comparison considering shares in float and Mcap vs. its percentage in Berong currently 30% discount. IMO
4/ Las Pascualas is expected to turnover $70 million next year of which about $45 million is IVKs'
But each to there own, IVK share price seems to lag TMC by 2-3 days so i expect a rise up again next week, have to wait and see.
I don't see any risk that this share price will not double as a minimum before xmas, just on Berong alone, after that Las Pascualas will be earning $70 million per annum of which IVK has 60% + interest.
Don't worry about holding TMC was like this last year and then bang!
Easy money a no brainer really!|
|eastwind: Stemis, thanks for puting the updated holding information. If we add 8% smaller holdings, free float at moment is just 8%. That will change if 6m more shares are issued in the next 3 months.
I tried to derive the value of IVK based on its nickel interest, which is mainly related to TMC (mainly BNC, I have no information about Ulugan)
Total resource of TMC
Berong 275*.561 = 154 MT
Celestial 75*.71 = 53 MT. ( I have the impression that TMC can increase share to 71%, no figure for grade, assume to be the same as Berong)
BNC percentage = 154/(154+53) = 73.6%.
As the BNC is more advanced, I will give it a value of total company of 75% against 73.6%.
IVK owns 18.7% of BNC and 11.2% of TMC
Berong: 275*.187 = 51.4 MT,
TMC: 207 * .112 = 23.2 MT.
total = 74.6T.
IVK/BNC = 74.6/154 = 48.4%
IVK/TMC = 74.6/207 = 36%. should be higher as most of IVK nickel value is in BNC.
TMC has about 30 m shares, with MC of £100m at 333p.
Then IVK is worth 100m*.36 = £36m.
Value per share = 36/14.03 = 256 p.
From above calculation, the nickel value of the share is about 256p.
At moment, IVK share price is about 273p, it means IVK other interest is almost free to us.|
first - sorry for my English ... i hope you understand what i mean.
Ch.K. did a good job over the last 3-4 years.
IVK was almost insolvent 4-5 years ago; so Ch.K. decided to go out of internet business - what was the former business of IVK.
He had good connections worldwide and the first project in his new working field was the "SUBRANUM Gold Project"
Until today this project does not work.
Then he found the golden egg - BERONG - an old mine which was stopped in the ´50-´60 when the nickel price was low.
Together with Toledo+Atlas IVK got the concession for the BERONG Project and they began to work.
Since then everything was done very good.
Last year IVK made a new share placement (from 6,75 Mio to 13,5 Mio) and a re-split 1:100.
(I bought my first shares for 0,015 AUD .. lol)
Most of the money that IVK will get from the new share placement will - imho - be used for the new nickel-processing plant in Palawan province.
With this factory they can produce their own nickel and sell it much more expensive to the Chinese ;)
But they need also funds for Belitung Island, Indonesia Zn/Pb Project + Las Pascualas.
I think the share price will remain at about 6 AUD until the general meeting.
When the placement is authorized share price will go to 7-8,50 AUD.
When the placement is over i hope share price will go to ....
imho - the share price is very good controlled by ch.k./IVK
at the moment C.K. looks that it doesn´t go to fast
after the placement there will be no stop ....
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