Investika Di Share Discussion Threads

[nghomi] 27/1/2008 22:18

tonystringy,
You may be right. However, if you look at CRC which is a copper resources player, you would find out unlike TMC it has a very healthy and steady rise over last 12 months:

[strow] 27/1/2008 19:08

Tony -you may be right re margin positions,but the main influence as usual imo is the mms totally overreacting to nothing-very little volume-they are protecting their butts and pricing in recession-i will be buying more when i get some more cash-as ng says,the price just based on las pasculas alone is getting silly now and im sure will get sillier before the markets bottom-in any case,even if the u.s does go into a recession,all the valuations we have been working on here are based on 1/2 the current metals prices for the copper and zinc and 5-7/12 for the nickel,so absolutely no worries-pure bargain,but you have to be contrarian to really benefit now and buy when everyone else is selling-just the timing of it is the problem as usual

[tonystringy] 26/1/2008 22:00

nghomi - 26 Jan'08 - 09:45 - 887

Good post imo. Certainly can't fault your logic there.


Something for the weekend....

A real eye opener for all traders & investors......what really goes on behind the scenes-

Jim Cramer on Market Manipulation

[tiggy2101] 26/1/2008 19:21

Nghomi

I was at the AGM last year and George said if the Commercial MPSA was not in place by 24th November, the SMP would be rolled over into the new year. I did e-mail the company on the 28th November asking about the Commercial MPSA, however there was no news.

regards
tiggy

[nghomi] 26/1/2008 09:45

Tiggy2101,
I thought the Temporary Mining Permit expired last November and it needed either commercial MPSA or another Temporary Mining Permit for one year.

So far the interim results or any operation updates have not covered this fact. So to my knowledge, they require some sort of permit to carry on doing DSO.

tonystringy/strow,

Purely on speculation basis, imo the fact that CK has diluted TMC/berong holding in IVK could indicate that the copper project is more important/valuable than Berong/TMC. It is the common belief that TMC/Berong is by far a better prospect than Las Pascualas. Is CK stupid to dilute his best project by 5.3m shares by investing in Las Pascualas and BNZ? Why else CK would dilute TMC/berong holding unless there is some big risk to this project that we have underetimated it?

As to me, I am happy to hold IVK because it is now fully financed for Las Pascualas project. The current market cap is a bargain on this project on its own. Any positve upside on TMC/berong or BNZ is just a bonus.

[tonystringy] 25/1/2008 22:18

strow - 24 Jan'08 - 18:24 - 883

As a mere spectator here at the mo I have to say that I'm very surprised at the extent of the falls both here and with TMC.

As has already been commented on though, both have fallen on very low volumes (certainly no sign of any institutional offloading which might be associated with a leak). In fact, it does appear that TMC still has at least one big buyer mopping up some of the sells........lord knows where the share price would be if this were not the case.

One possibility that's crossed my mind is that it may be just leveraged PI's being forced to sell to cover margin calls........followed by some panic selling. Certainly the trades over at TMC would seem to support this theory.

I suppose the current lack of any positive updates from TMC doesn't help matters either though.

IF this is all it is then it may have provided a great top up opp.....for the brave.

Best of Luck!

[tiggy2101] 25/1/2008 21:53

Nghomi

Yes, however I think they are still operating on the Temporary Mining Permit.
We could do with a bit of good news next week, I understand the quarterly report is in draft form awaiting the directors approval. It should be issued next week.

[nghomi] 25/1/2008 12:35

I thought Berong is awaiting for a commercial MPSA. Is it not the case?

[strow] 24/1/2008 18:24

Why??-tmc has just fallen with the market-the risk of bad news now is the same as it ever has been-yes the dso is still covered-see their last operations update-in fact in the interims-current mpsa covers it

[nghomi] 24/1/2008 16:57

There must be a bad news round the corner for TMC and Berong. Do they still have any license to do DSO? News always leaks for TMC....

[strow] 24/1/2008 14:12

Talk about head and shoulders!

[strow] 22/1/2008 12:32

Well and truly broken support now-hardly surprising-think we were just waiting for that really-still holding still happy :-) looking at trades-unbelieveable markdown on virtually no sell volume-lets see if anything comes in at the end of the day-this year will throw up some very good opportunities for anyone with cash

[strow] 21/1/2008 11:37

Nothing to say really-buisness as usual in an ailing market-long term prospects still looking very strong imo

[peroman] 21/1/2008 11:34

Any comments on quarterly report, anyone?

[strow] 17/1/2008 12:33

Edmund-what it means imo is that the discount between the two is purely due to market sentiment and not fundamentals-when the market recovers,i reckon this will recover in quick smart time-very cheap now-may become even more so,but not as up till now on its own fundamentals,which are strong

[edmundshaw] 17/1/2008 09:30

We are a tad now below the point where the good news (on the cash raised at about 195p) came out. Bizarre...

[pete barnes] 15/1/2008 16:32

down again

[nghomi] 15/1/2008 12:43

strow, you are probably right. As you have mentioned before, RAB could be forced to sell soon (if they have not done so by now!) to cover their NRK's exposure.

[strow] 15/1/2008 11:03

I totally agree ng-if only i had more cash-there is a third kind of seller,namely a shorter and i suspect a few are playing

[nghomi] 14/1/2008 21:09

I guess, we are seeing two types of sellers at the moment. A group of people who bought in beacuse of berong/TMC. These people see IVK's holding in TMC and Berong is diluted by 5.3m shares since TNQ + BZC acquisition.

The second type of sellers are people who invested in BNZ and paid A$7.5m for 58% of BNZ. These are now given only 1.1m IVK shares and these are people who want to be out and CK has given them the chance of doing so by offering them IVK shares.

imo the latest asset value of IVK is as follows:

1) BNC/TMC = £26m (Based on market cap of TMC)
2) BZC + UEP = £6m (Based on fund raising for BNZ A$7.5m for 58% of BNZ)
1) LP + cash = £18m (Based on (TNQ market cap + TNQ's Debt) and TNQ 51% in LP)

Incidantly this would be approximately £2.50 (or A$5.50!) per share. imo the share price weakness is probably a golden oppurtunity to increase our holdings at bargain prices.-:)

[madmix] 14/1/2008 12:00

Thanks for that nghomi, let's hope you're right.

[nghomi] 14/1/2008 11:56

madmix,
I am assuming that convertable notes would be taken by CK and others. It is possible that IVK does not need any furhter funding after 18th of December placing. This means that resolution 1 in the EGM is not relavant anymore.

However, if the notes are taken by CK et al, it would mean that CK et al would be able to get IVK's shares at 80% of market price. Note that notes bear 9.5% interests and they would be converted to shares every three months. So I am assuming that these professional investors who have paid A$4.30 per share, would protect their interest by keeping the share price above A$4.30 such that their holding would not be diluted every three months by CK and others. So I expect 25% premium to A$4.30 in three months time.

[explorer88] 14/1/2008 08:16

Looks like ASX is unimpressed by IVK. Bid/Offer spread still 3.3 / 4.1.

[peroman] 13/1/2008 19:48

Drewz,

Thank you for the "clarification", I'd take it you do not own any IVK. I'll check the MXX more thoroughly later. They seem to be in a more advanced stage than IVK, though.

[badgerbadgerbadger] 12/1/2008 21:15

unless i keep getting it wrong (i wouldn't be surprised). the investors committed to this in early dec or so (see ivk pdf's on asx website). then the price was circa 4.3 aussie.

however ivk's berong share vs tmc's share/market cap + ivk's tmc shares + las pascualas + belitung = v cheap imo. wish i'd picked up more at 1.55ish