Investika Di Share Discussion Threads

[nghomi] 03/1/2008 13:18

As to your comment with regards to gold, I believe that IVK has found trace of gold in Las Nipas. See the above header for further details. I do not have any idea if this gold discovery is within their LP's mining license or it would be economical or not. But IVK has certainly have some leads to GOLD too.

[strow] 03/1/2008 10:09

Kimboy/NG-see both your points and yes,i do see tmc holding as more valuable than cash and berong as a better prospect than las pasculas,although the latter is shaping up quite nicely-BUT-maybe given what is expected to happen in the markets over this year,they may be better off converting their tmc holding to cash,as tmc price may well fall a fair bit this year-in that scenario i do see ngs suggestion as worthwhile if they are struggling with their own placing for lp-might be difficult to raise cash at a later date to buy tmc holding back though-who would lend them the money for that??either way they are in a strong position as they do have tmc asset to sell if needed-things will keep moving fowards here,in the hands of in my view what is a very competent and enterprising management team

[nghomi] 02/1/2008 22:01

strow,

As Kimboy2 suggests selling TMC or IVK shares are both be translated to dilution of IVK assets per share.

I am not suggesting that IVK sells entire TMC holdings by any means but I can see what you are saying. You are saying that it is better to have TMC shares than cash.

Imagine the following scenarios:

1) IVK sells ~400k TMC shares to raise approximately £1.0m before 10th of Jan. Then I could easily beleive that the recent placing would go through (i.e. 3m shares at 191p as the current exchange rate is £1= AUS$2.25).

IVK would have 0.145 TMC share for every IVK share
IVK would have 35p cash per share

2) IVK fails to complete the recent placing. So it would be forced to issue 5m shares to raise the same amount of money at 135p per share.

IVK would have 0.152 TMC shares for every IVK share
IVK would have 31p cash per share.
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You could see that in the above simple example while IVK has more cash per share in the first case scenario, TMC asset is slightly less than that in the second case scenario. So what you are saying is that 0.007 shares of TMC is a lot more valueable than 4p cash per share in the long run. So you are assuming that TMC share price will be £10, so 0.007 of TMC share will be 7p which is better than 4p.

[kimboy2] 02/1/2008 19:47

I think if you raise money by selling TMC shares or by raising equity is irrelevant as in both cases you are 'selling the asset'. In one case directly and in the other by dilution.

If Las Pascualas looks a better project than TMC shares then it would be beneficial to sell the shares to invest in the copper.

I have become a bit more pesimisstic on Celestial recently, as I believe the company has. It seems to have gone to the back of the queue developmentwise when it was near the front.

I believe this is the result of local political opposition.

Personally I don't really see anything moving the TMC price till they get further production areas going, apart from the Chinese pig iron JV. The other production areas won't start for a year or so, all being well.

[strow] 02/1/2008 19:33

NG-i dont,but i think you are not understanding mine-every company has to raise capital-this should be expected-if the tmc holding was unlikely to appreciate in value,then i could understand that it would be better to sell it to raise capital,but in my view the tmc holding will likely become a four bagger plus given time,as opposed to placing money which will not appreciate in its own right,hence placing for me is "cheaper option" long term-short term maybe not,but as we both agree,thats not how ivk should be viewed
You have suggested selling the tmc holding before-effectively you are also in doing so,selling off their indirect holding in berong and "diluting that asset" and any potential upside from celestial(if you believe its going to happen)and atlas holding-i like tmc and was originally invested there,but switched to limit risk-i take it you probably see the tmc holding overall as high risk,which it is,but with the risk comes the rewards-lets see what happens-either way i think ivk are in a very strong position on many fronts-they just need to add a bit of gold into the mix at some point in the future and i would be very happy-i see this as their main weakness at the moment,that they are purely a base metal play,but maybe they have enough balls to juggle as it is??

[nghomi] 02/1/2008 17:46

Strow, I don't understand your point of view. What value do you put on TMC which is more important than diluting IVK's shares?

[strow] 31/12/2007 11:15

I dont-their holding in tmc is very valuable in my view(also including the atlas holding)-the only reason they should ever do this is if its essential and i dont believe that to be the case at the moment

[nghomi] 31/12/2007 09:19

I seriously beleive that IVK should sell a few precentage of TMC to realise a few million $AU before this fund raising.

[strow] 28/12/2007 19:03

Kimboy-you may be right-will be very interesting to see what happens-remember,belitung was priced by cornhill at ZN- $1,200 per tonne and now they have 100% share :-)

[kimboy2] 28/12/2007 15:42

I may be being a bit naive here but the placing on the 18th December said;

The Company wishes to advise that it has agreed, subject to approval by
shareholders at a General Meeting to be held on 10 January 2008, to place with
institutional investors a total of 3,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares at a
price of AUD $4.30 per share.

That sounds to me like a signed agreement subject to the EGM's approval.

The convertible note on the 6th Decemeber for A$10m is not underwritten but CK has undertaken to take a minimum A$3.2m. Furthermore it rather sounded as though he would take more if they were avavilable.

It appears to me as though A$16.1m out of A$22.9m is guranteed.

[strow] 28/12/2007 14:49

Personally am not going to blame the management if they cant now pull this off at $4.30-as long as they raise the money at a reasonable price without diluting too much i will be happy-given that a lot of placings are at 10-20% below current s/ps i think we should expect that and be happy if we get more-just my own view,but that would be very normal on aim and often elsewhere

[nghomi] 28/12/2007 13:22

strow, I hope you are right but I have read about this fund raising since the share price was 310p per share. We are now less than half of that. As you say, I am waitng to see what would happen. However, imho if 186p fails why should the investors pay 150p and not 90p? And then we get to vicious circle here all over again. It is the credibility of the management is under question and they will have to do what they said on the 18th of December RNS otherwise nobody could trust them the same level as before. Hence, if they fail to raise £5.5m by issuing 3m shares, I fear that the share price will be hammered imo. On the other hand if they pull it off and get £1.86 per share, it is a no brainer IVK would probably go above 200p.

[strow] 28/12/2007 13:09

I dont agree re big fluctuations based on this in the s/p-its simple really,the funding will be organised at a lower price than was originally planned-in my mind there is no question that they will get the funding-they have investors that were prepared to pay up to the equivalent of £1.86 per share at the time,even though the share price was lower then-these investors are even more likely to agree to a lower price-who wouldnt!As long as the final agreed price is not significantly less than where we are now,i dont see there is an issue here at all-the investors want the shares-the only question is the price-ivk will get the funds,but again at what price-the suggestion that they will fail to get this measly amount of funding,is nonsense in my view-they will get the funds they require,its just the price issue that needs sorting-lets wait and see

[nghomi] 28/12/2007 12:49

strow, if they fail to raise their required funds, imo IVK share price would sink to sub 100p quite easily. Las Pascualas, belitung and UMC require fresh funding to survive as a viable projects. So imo 10th of Jan EGM is fairly critical for the health of the share price. Perhaps IVK would need to off load 2% to 3% of TMC to boost their balance sheet before 10th of Jan in order to get successful fund raising at 188p and 240p (convertable bonds). imo the share price would not be anywhere close to 150p by the 10th of Jan, it would be either a lot higher or a lot lower!

[strow] 28/12/2007 11:26

There is an if here,but if belitung is economical and i dont believe they would have increased their holding if they didnt think it wouldnt be,then the current share price is just crazy-im waiting for m/c sub £20m to add

[strow] 28/12/2007 11:19

Yes well, i did say a few posts back that i also believed it would not happen-its not a favourable environment for fundraising atm anyway,let alone unrealistic ones,but obviously these "sophisticated investors"are not that sophisticated if they couldnt see that the general markets were very likely to bring the share price much lower before the deal happened!I unfortunately agree with you and dont think it will happen,BUT even if the markets had kept the share price where it was,the fundraising still would have been at a premium,so i dont think the management should be blamed,if the investors agreed in the first place

[nghomi] 28/12/2007 09:46

strow, no I am not. As I say, it is a credibility issue imo. If the fund raising get cancelled or ammended, it is not good enough as far as I am concerned. The company must not issue such a ridiculous statement when the share price is significantly lower than the offering. On the other hand if the fund raising is completed at $4.30 per share, I would probably increase my holdings by a factor of 2 at 155p per share!!

[strow] 28/12/2007 09:34

ng-why such a short term view??this is a long term investment imo-are you on margin?

[nghomi] 28/12/2007 09:22

"18 December 2007

The Company wishes to advise that it has agreed, subject to approval by
shareholders at a General Meeting to be held on 10 January 2008, to place with
institutional investors a total of 3,000,000 fully paid ordinary shares at a
price of AUD $4.30 per share."

The above RNS does not look to be a credible statement at the moment. I am concerned above this fund raising as it seems to me that it is too good to be true! As far as I am concerned, it is a credibility issue with IVK's management. Why should any investor pay 188p per share while no investor is happy to pay 158p. imo IVK's share price would be sharply moved either upwards or downwards by the 10th of January. If I was not a holder, I would bet on the downwards rather than upwards scenario. The only reason that I am still holding is that I am "hoping" and "praying" that BNC would make a cracking announcement in the next two weeks. It may not be too far distance from reality as TMC share price has held up extremely well in the last two months. Come on BNC, tell the market what is going on!

[strow] 23/12/2007 10:07

npv here now beginning to look very interesting indeed following their recent increase in stakes in las pasculas and belitung

[badgerbadgerbadger] 19/12/2007 22:15

Strow

Take a look at the asx site. There is a 31 page pdf from 06/12/07 which provides full details of the conversion of the notes. It includes details that CK can take 32.6%+ of the Notes and an Independent Expert report on the fairness of the terms.

[strow] 19/12/2007 19:22

red river-thats what i meant by i hope it goes through-its the markets in general that are taking it down and i dont think it will happen-it will be cancelled and renegotiated at a lower price imo
Kimboy-imo everything should be considered expensive at the moment as everything is likely to fall with the markets(if thats where they are heading)-i know what you mean though and if one takes a medium/longer term view i personally think ivk is very cheap for what it has to offer,but it can always get cheaper and probably will-i will be adding as and when i get more funds through 2008

[kimboy2] 19/12/2007 17:22

Either IVK is cheap or TMC is dear.

[red river 1] 19/12/2007 16:35

So Toledo results indifferent as they may be are out and it remains stable. This falls steeply! Discuss. Surely this is a screaming buy at these prices but when will it stop falling? Placing at £1.83, that insti is surely not going to pay that if the price continues to perform like this.

[strow] 18/12/2007 10:59

Agree-lets hope it goes through