Inveresk Share Discussion Threads

[2fedup] 26/6/2008 14:57

Arthur_Lame_Stock, I am thinking the same as you, don't trust the management of this company

[arthur_lame_stocks] 25/6/2008 17:51

I wonder if the management/major shareholder are going to screw the rest of the shareholders with a rescue rights issue at a knockdown price, knowing that in this market few people are going to have the apettite to invest.

[mjcrockett] 25/6/2008 16:20

2fedup, They will get money somehow, but it may not be on good terms.

MJ

[2fedup] 25/6/2008 13:51

Where does Inveresk go from hear if they do not get the money.

[mjcrockett] 24/6/2008 20:18

No, not the best. I was quite surprised to see this, as Inveresk had reduced their debt below £6m as at end September 2007 and at least £3m of this was long term debt. I guess ongoing losses from St Cuthberts are catching up with them. The prospect of a placing in these market conditions or a fire sale of assets do not appeal, so I would hope someone could lend them a million or two.

MJ

[arthur_lame_stocks] 24/6/2008 18:49

Not the best news today.

[quazie12] 22/4/2008 17:14

Cheers mjc

i assume that means an uplift if the acquirer is to get more units on the site than the current permission.

q

[mjcrockett] 09/4/2008 10:41

Quaz,

In the interims the company said:- "The successful sale of land, buildings and related equipment at Carrongrove realised £11,000,000 together with a carried interest into the future in respect of further planning gains which materialise over the next ten years."

I do not know the full details of how this works, but I do know that there is likely to be some planning gain from this. I would hope that there will be an update on this in the upcoming results.

MJ

[quazie12] 09/4/2008 10:15

mjc

do you know if there is more planning gain to come from Carronvale. I thought they struck a price with the developer based on getting a scheme through ?

Is this an "overage" based on the actual permission granted ? If so do you know the trigger for it ?

cheers


quaz

[arthur_lame_stocks] 08/4/2008 17:56

johnny

Just guessing like you say. I just think that falling equity markets may open up a deficit on their pension schems (£50m in total libilities) and that anythin with a property angle will go so out of favour that there'll be some serious bargains to be had.

Anyway, I don't see any great rush to buy, it's going to take a few years to realise the value in the property assets.

Just my opinion of course.

[mjcrockett] 08/4/2008 10:41

I would have thought that 5p was unlikely, but who knows in these markets. If you look at the balance sheet in the latest interims they show "total equity" (i.e. assets minus liabilities) as £10.7m. This is almost exactly the current market cap at a share price of 7.75p. However, the balance sheet only includes about £12m for around 60 acres of land and makes no allowance for potential planning permission in the future. Also, there does not seem to be any value attributed to the remaining 2 paper businesses - these will fetch a few million at some point. Finally, there is also another million or two to come at some time for "planning gain" for the Carrongrove land they have already sold.

Even if land prices were to halve there would be decent upside from here. My main worry has been that it will take time to sell the paper businesses and that losses from the furniture paper business would eat into the final payout. But, with the weakness of the pound against the euro, this concern is lessened as the losses will be considerably reduced.

MJ

[jonny wilkinson] 07/4/2008 22:09

Arthur_Lame_Stocks - 6 Apr'08 - 15:35 - 953 of 953

Why 5p , interesting to know your investment strategy, mayb like others , just guessing

[arthur_lame_stocks] 06/4/2008 15:35

I reckon these might see 5p before too long Crockett. That's the price at which i'll be looking to buy.

[mjcrockett] 03/4/2008 11:11

We may see results for IVS this month. They have usually reported in April, although last year was June for exceptional reasons. I would expect to see a major improvement in the results for the second half with the change in the Euro/Pound exchange rate. IVS profits are very sensitive to the Euro as we found 2 years back when the exchange rate went in the opposite direction.

Someone is still selling shares - today selling at 7.65p. The market cap is now down to £11m, which is somewhat low for a company that owns over 50 acres of 'brownfield' land.

MJ

[quazie12] 17/12/2007 16:58

ALS

Thanks for that I will have a look. If my architect friends hear any more re Fife Plan developments I will post up here.

q

[arthur_lame_stocks] 16/12/2007 14:10

Hi Quazie

I know John swan but I thought most of the value had been outed.

I like DSN. They have a 6 acre site in Blackheath which could prove to be very valuable.

[quazie12] 15/12/2007 20:35

ALS

I think the point you make is good. Given the size of the Fund commitment in total, it would not take too much of a drop in the market to wipe a good bit of value off the company. Uf the company is eventually to be sold off piecemeal and liquidated, the eventual deficit is a real moving target. If however the market as a whole hits say 7000, it might be in surplus.

What other opportunities are you looking at ?

In the category of business with real estate land bank outweighing the business as a long term prospect, I am invested in John Swan Auctioneers code is SWJ. It is interesting to note that the ex chaiman of United Auctions who bought in around £3 and sold the company at £15 has been building a stake in Swan of around 7% over the last 3 years. He was buying up to £13.50. The share price is sitting around £15 now. I think there is potentially £24 of value in there.

q


q

[arthur_lame_stocks] 15/12/2007 14:06

mjcrockett

I'm talking about total pension fund liabilities across the two funds, not the deficit. They're about £50m in total which is quite a lot in relation to the size of Inveresk.

If I can't get them for the price i'm willing to buy I won't buy them, there's lots of opportunities cropping up at the moment.

[mjcrockett] 14/12/2007 19:11

Arthur, You may not get the chance to buy at 8p - unless they really do have £50m in pension fund liabilities. In the last interim statement it shows the pension scheme with about £250,000 liabilities.

MJ

[arthur_lame_stocks] 14/12/2007 18:31

These kind of things always take longer than you'd like and they're always really boring until it does.

I'm hoping they fall to 8p before buying.

They still have £50m in pension fund liabilities.

[mjcrockett] 13/12/2007 19:41

q12, You probably could still make a case for a valuation around 28p if everything went very well and they can stop the losses very soon. I believe a more realistic target is in the range 18-22p. The other impossible question is the timescale. My guess is 2 years to reach my target, but I would expect a significant improvement in the share price in 2008.

MJ

[quazie12] 13/12/2007 14:18

MJC

Thanks for your insights.

It is good to hear that there was a built in overage provision with the Carrongrove deal if the buyer squeezes more out of the planners.

Do you have any feel for what the company may be worth ?

I attempted a sum of the parts a couple of years ago and I reckoned then the company could reasonabley have been worth 28p a share. I have, I must admit not updated this estimate based on the Carrongrove sale and current balance sheet.


2fedup

They have sold Carrongrove near Denny and own a substantial acreage at Inverkeithing. In addition there is an operating factory at Wells in Somerset which may have long term potential. The Inverkeithing site forms part of a larger area which is in the process of being included in the Fife local plan for mixed use development I believe. Such processes are long drawn out and fraught. IVS are not alone. Their site part of a plan for a bigger area which the council wish to see developed in a structured manner. They too own land which they wish to see incorporated in this masterplan along with other third parties including Forth Ports.

q12

[mjcrockett] 12/12/2007 17:18

q12, I agree with you that Inveresk could have given us more information over recent months and years. I like companies that keep investors informed. However, I gather it does cost a company £200+ just to issue an RNS.

I have attended the last 3 Inveresk AGM's and have spoken with most of the directors at these events. I have found these people open and most helpful to speak with and if you ever ring the company for information they are as helpful as they can be. I know that there have been some items that the company has been restricted from reporting in the past and there may still be. AIM is not so loosly regulated as some people think.

I believe (but it's only my opinion) that the directors would be buying shares at under 10p if they could do. This statement from the recent interim results is fairly clear - "In our own small way we expect to be able to play some part in the moves towards production integration/consolidation and will continue to engage in active discussions on an international basis until we find a strategic alliance which delivers your Board's stated objectives."
Note particularly the words "continue to engage in ACTIVE discussions".

2fedup, I was referring to Inverkeithing particularly. Also, I believe that they have some interest in Carrongrove still if their buyer gets further planning permissions in the next 10 years.

MJ

[2fedup] 12/12/2007 16:58

Hi MJ what land are Inveresk in the process of selling ?

[quazie12] 12/12/2007 15:57

mjcrockett

I was implying that perhaps management are not too concerned about the share price slide right now.

In this day and age some companies release rns's updating shareholders and others almost daily for nothing really that newsworthy. We have received only the bare minimum from the Board in recent years. That is not good enough.

The end game for Inveresk is inevitable. Liquidate the business and its assets. Everyone knows this should fetch a healthy surplus. I don't agree with you the directors cannot buy shares until a deal is announced. They may not be able to pull a deal together for Inverkeithing for some time to come. There is nothing to stop them buying up cheap shares if that is the case.

On the contrary what they should do is give shareholders regular updates on progress to enable us to ascertain what we feel the company/shares may be worth.

If you think the recent disclosures are as open and transparent as they could be then I beg to differ. They are dealing with a local authority on Inverkeithing and those dealings have to be that way.

q12