|Internet Business Group
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Software & Computer Services
Real-Time news about Internet Bus. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|stemis: Sorry Baheid,
TMN might be a great company, IBG might do better under TMN's ownership, TMN shares might be cheap and have great prospects, BUT
there is no getting away from the fact that Maz and the other directors have stuffed this up big style.
Less than 12 months ago our shares were worth mid 30's. Today they are worth 10.75p. That's a historic P/E of 5.8 and a prospective of 5.4.
Its worth reviewing how we got here. Having explored the potential of a strategic buyer when the share price was 30p+, IBG management decided to forgo short term profit with the intention of building up the business for an eventual sale. Some of us were supportive of management, despite the obvious pain, in the belief that as long as IBG delivered on its plans, the share price would recover and there would be an eventual exit. What bloody fools we were.
Now, having walked the share price down to a fraction of its original value, Maz et al have done another about-face and decided to abandon that strategy at the worst possible time for IBG shareholders. We've taken all the pain and now 70% of the gain has been sold from us. If Maz thought being part of a large internet marketing group was the way forward, he should have done this 12 months ago or in 12 months time. This isn't strategy, its a shambles. These guys clearly don't know what they are doing from one day to the next.
When I spoke to Maz last week he was very cagey and defensive. I asked about the forecast for next year remaining the same and he said it was what they needed to do and implied they were still happy with it. However he noted that the market had voted with their feet in respect of the current strategy and they needed to have regard to that and the interests of shareholders. If this is the result then he has completely lost the plot.
None of this means that TMN won't thrive and that a combination of TMN and IBG isn't a powerful tie up. However even if TMN trebles to 120p (which would be an all time high and no doubt a tremendous result for TMN shareholders), its only back to 32p for IBG shareholders. Hardly delivering the long term value that Maz promised us at the famous meeting six months ago, is it.|
|omlaysause: GWP23 - the IBG share price is irrelevant now, only the TMN price is of any value. Unless the deal doesn't go through IBG could go to 1p and it wouldn't matter.|
|stemis: IBG share price down to 11.4p, now we've tied our boat to the sinking share price that is TMN.|
Just passing on my impressions.
I don't understand anymore than anyone else why Maz has chosen the worst possible time to do this deal. As I've said before; IBG shareholders have taken all the pain now Maz has handed over 70% of the 'potential' gain to TMN shareholders.
I struggle to understand the strengths of the TMN business. It seems largely build around emailing advertising material to internet users who have been induced to opt into email marketing by various ploys.
Presumably Maz believes the growth potential of TMN and the synergies with IBG are as good as the growth potential of IBG alone.
I'll probably give it a while, certainly till the TMN finals, but I don't think I have the long term commitment that I had with IBG. It seems like the end of an era but I guess like many, in retrospect, I hung on too long. If TMN shares hit 84p or so (equivalent to a 2009 forecast P/E of 12) I think I'd be out. That would be equivalent to an IBG price of 22p. I never thought I'd take that sort of price for IBG but I guess its all different now.|
I agree that the management of expectation by IBG is dreadful and the cause of the pitiful share price. I don't accept this is some sort of plot to steal the company with a low priced MBO.
I'm not saying Maz isn't interested in shareholders anymore but it probably isn't (as) high up his list. No news on non exec chairman. No developments on making research available to PIs.
I suspect that Maz has, either consciously or sub consciously, decided it doesn't matter what they do now the market isn't going to forgive them. So the best thing they can do is get on with the 'growth strategy' as quickly as possible. Hence they've brought forward elements of the "scaling up of operations" and be damned with the impact on the share price.
This is now more like a private equity involvement than a stock market investment. I don't think we can rely on the stock market to deliver 'fair value' for this share, so the share price becomes almost irrelevant. Its all down to whether IBG can turn themselves into something a buyer will pay 50p/£1 a share for in a couple of years. I'd prefer otherwise but we are where we are.
It's reassuring that the brokers are holding their forecast for 2008, but I guess the market won't believe them. There are elements of the trading statement I don't understand. Cash of £1.5M + is only a couple of hundred k above that at 31.10.06. So where has the rest of the £1.4M profit gone? Why do they talk about normalised profit of £1.4M? Normalised for what?|
|hirschnathan: New research note from st helens
Still prediciting 22.m for 2008 & ebita £2.5m
Internet Business Group (IBG), the online performance marketing,media and e-commerce specialist, has announced in today's trading update that it has brought forward some of its planned investment in mid-term organic growth into Q4 FY07 from Q1 FY08, the key trading period. As a result, some management attention has been diverted from Q4 sales. In light of this, we are reducing our PBT forecasts for FY07 to £1.4m from £1.6m (Initiation note 30/07/07), EPS to 1.8p from 1.9p and share price target to 27p from 30p. FY08 remains unchanged. Although some short-term share price weakness is likely, we retain our BUY recommendation. Our revised price target implies a 13.5x FY08 PER
Internet Business Group (IBG), the online performance marketing,
media and e-commerce specialist, has announced in today's trading
update that it has brought forward some of its planned investment in
mid-term organic growth into Q4 FY07 from Q1 FY08, the key trading
period. As a result, some management attention has been diverted
from Q4 sales. In light of this, we are reducing our PBT forecasts for
FY07 to £1.4m from £1.6m (Initiation note 30/07/07), EPS to 1.8p
from 1.9p and share price target to 27p from 30p. FY08 remains
unchanged. Although some short-term share price weakness is
likely, we retain our BUY recommendation. Our revised price target
implies a 13.5x FY08 PER.
Areas of investment new toolset for AffiliateFuture and additional data centre
IBG has developed and deployed a new toolset and user interface for both affiliates and
merchants within the AffiliateFuture affiliate marketing network. This includes improved
traffic analysis tools. The new toolset was recently previewed at the A4U Expo in Excel and
feedback is reported to have been good. A beta version will be made available early next
month with all users expected to switch over by the end of 2007. IBG has also brought online
a third data centre in London to improve AffiliateFuture reliability and uptime.
Expansion of travel features ahead of key January trading period
IBG has had a number of launches across its Media travel properties. It has added a
dedicated ski channel to CheapHolidayDeals.co.uk as well as user-generated content
Reviews.CheapHolidayDeals.co.uk. There are also a number of developments on
Henoo.com, IBG's holiday search engine and technology platform. These should feed into
revenues in both the AffiliateFuture and Media divisions.
E-commerce improved performance but not key focus
The new management and processes in H1 FY07 are having positive impact on the Ecommerce
division. Although there are expansion opportunities for this division, the main
management focus remains Media and AffiliateFuture. Management will consider strategic
options for this business during FY08.|
|nghomi: IPH is now 40% up from the low of 100p after their profit warning. Interesting that both IPH and IBG share prices halved after the profit warnings. So we get 40% from 13.5p, we would have 19p per share which is the fair value IMHO. We would probably have to wait until the end of October trading statement though.|
|nghomi: 69steve, are you implying that IBG share price had gone somewhere in the last 20 months?!
Despite the astonishing growth story during the same period, the share price had gone nowhere prior to the strategic review was started. IMHO IBG had been grossly overpriced in the last 18 months. During this period, interestingly enough the management not only met their promises but they usually exceeded the market expectation by 10%. How many company do you know of such a flying results for the management team? Despite all of that, the share price had gone nowhere for 18 months.
For the first time after 20 months, we have the oppurtunity to buy in a decent company with superb management team. The market is expanding for IBG's sector as fast as ever and there is nothing wrong with growth prospect in the sector.
Even better, the valuation is now grossly undervalued!!!|
|yump: Really hacked off this morning - keep seeing the IBG share price and its infuriating to see TD share price performance when they are such a pile of c..p with their affiliate customer service. Making a wad load of money and its still rubbish service.
Yes, you guessed it, 3 emails to TD, 2 to a merchant direct, no response. 1 phone call - "its been passed to technical". 4 weeks later no response. wtf ?
How the f..k do they actually make money that's the mystery - they've been like it for years. Is it just that there's no alternative or do they just go and talk the talk to merchants and the merchants just fall for it. Or is it that they've got the biggest affiliates on board in some way, so they can promise the merchants big results.
I despair. Sorry about the language.
I wonder how many affiliates would just ditch everything TD if they got the chance. Timebomb for TD waiting imo.
If Maz is watching, please, please, please find some way of getting the big merchants off TD !|
|yump: I wonder how many more things will pop up to stop IBG share price staying above 30p ?! Can't be many things left...
What about 'Government proposes to nationalise internet to control identity theft crimewave'.
That should b....r it for a while ;-)|
Internet Business share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange