Interbulk Investments Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 09/10/2012 13:06

Since the pre-close statement 8/10/2012, the share price has move up on two consecutive days.
On the 19/5/2011, INB placed 165m shares with Sinotrans(HK)Logistics Ltd at 11p, a premium of 184% to the mid price of 3.875p on the day. The placing represents a stake of 35.26%. Worth taking a look at. I hold.

[azalea] 02/5/2012 11:34

Very much under the radar of PI, however I expect there will be a stream of good news on the contracts front, as its European industry standard 'bag-in-box' technology for the bulk movement of polymer, makes its impact. Very confident of INB proving a winner in the next 18 months.

[rathkum] 02/5/2012 11:18

And we get BBC exposure

[azalea] 01/5/2012 08:02

Today's rns is very good news for INB, with long term implications. In addition to the 10 year contract, is the particularly exciting statement that the 'bag-in-box' technology developed by INB, has now been adopted as industry standard for the bulk movement of polymer in Europe. The future looks bright indeed.

[azalea] 27/3/2012 21:36

I think the news released 9/2/12 on the refurbishment programme was very significant in telling us where INB is going in its drive to capture a stake in the huge Far East market. The size of the accumulative major holdings are such that even a modest purchase puts pressure on what's left in freefloat.

[kimball808] 27/3/2012 19:06

spend £10k and you can move the share price 5.5%...

[rathkum] 21/3/2012 12:50

I guess maybe things are not that bad after all from what we read in the press.

[rathkum] 17/3/2012 12:21

A recent addition to the website but not released as an RNS

[davydoo] 15/3/2012 21:12

Not sure on that one rathkum. They referred to the Sinotrans alliance in China/Asia, being similar to the one in Europe with Norbert D, so perhaps warrants a greater level of engagement than the shareholding alone suggests.

Chinese shipping isn't my favourite topic at the moment. A look at todays suspension update from YGH will tell you why.

Shipping rates are suffering from an over capacity, but not sure you can read across to the intermodal containers that happen to be on those ships.

Im still astounded by the potential they eluded to in that a customer buying tons is getting it delivered by lots of lorries, full of lots of pallets, full of lots of 25kg bags, rather than a single intermodal container.

[rathkum] 15/3/2012 20:31

Thank you kindly davydoo for your post. It was a really good read. Looking at the make up of the board it was strange to see that Hoyer do not have a board representation while Nobert strangle? with a 4,3% stake have one.

Now in light of Sinotrans 2011 trading results (below) issued two days back, I wonder if we can expect tough trading conditions to prevail.


Sinotrans Shipping profits fall

Hong Kong: China shipowner Sinotrans Shipping saw 2011 profits drop by more than a quarter to $91.7m from $127.5m previously on a 1.1% rise in revenue to $281.4m from $278.5m previously.

Repeating the same litany of woe heard before from others in the sector, Sinotrans said: "Following the short-lived recovery in 2010, growth of global economy and international trade slowed down again in 2011."

"Under the dual pressures of rapid tonnage expansion and lacklustre seaborne trade, the global shipping market stayed subdued with performance apparently less favourable than that in 2010. Meanwhile, with the intensifying inflation in emerging economies and the resulting significant surge in operating costs, the overall shipping industry was in an adverse situation," Sinotrans added.

[glasshalfull] 15/3/2012 16:21

Smashing davydoo. Appreciated.

GHF

[azalea] 15/3/2012 15:40

I second that. A very good feedback.

[jeff h] 15/3/2012 15:32

Thanks davydoo - your efforts greatly appreciated

[davydoo] 15/3/2012 14:42

I attended the AGM on Tuesday, and thought i'd share my thoughts from the meeting.

Following the formalities and votes (which all passed) there was some time to talk to Scott Cunningham, FD and David Rolph, Chairman.

The following questions and topics came up, and these are my own interpretation of my understanding and my notes, and should be read that way.

-Prospect for dividends? (raised by a shareholder, not who wanted them, but wondered about the ability of the company to do so)

This has not been on the boards agenda now or in the past (partly i suspect because its unlikely to be required by major holders) The company is subject to banking covenants, and improving the capital structure is the priority, particularly towards lower borrowing costs, as the Sinotrans investment allowed.

-Prospects for Chinese business post Sinotrans deal?

Good, talked about the 'iso-silo,' now in place at Bayer, which is owned by Interbulk, with Sinotrans doing the onward delivery.

Described enormous opportunity to move polymer producers from producing 25kg bags, currently stacked up on wooden pallets (which all need opening at client site) to 25 ton containers that Interbulk can offer.

Highlighted the Alliance with Sinotrans is just that, but that they are free to pursue other opportunities or not partner with SInotrans if not right for Interbulk. Described Sinotrans itself as an Alliance only recently coming together to have a China wide offering.

Also described the ongoing expansion of Chinese railways as a good opportunity.

-Outstanding options and warrants?

I asked this in relation to Directors with options at 20p, are they still an incentive at 3x current price? And regarding Bank Of Scotland with Warrants at 10p, what was the background to them giving some up as part of the debt renegotiation?.

Scott confirmed that the 20p options would be unlikely to vest as they missed prior performance targets. No plans to give directors future options, there is long term cash incentive plan going forward detailed on page 20 of the annual report.

The warrants to Bank of Scotland were originally in relation to the mezzanine finance, which having been reduced by the placing proceeds suggested a reduction in the number of outstanding warrants, although there doesn't seem to be a direct correlation.

We had a general discussion about whether the Bank wanted to be a shareholder, as I suspected it was a legacy business activity of BoS, and not wanted by Lloyds now. Speculation that they're not valued highly by BoS, due to standard models, and so not giving up much, and would likely be sold by BoS if exercised anyway.

-Oil Price Rises?

Confirmed that they are impacted by rising prices, as tenders, bids etc, need to be repriced and existing contracts which have fuel price terms within them do not kick in immediately. Described a policy of 'dead-band' pricing, which suggests small moves within the band don't trigger a re-price.

Didn't seem overly concerned by this though, confirmed they benefit in reverse if prices fall, and that in the bigger picture a high oil price benefits the business in greater use of intermodal transport.

Other things that came up;

Nearing completion of using one software system across the business. 'Swift' which has been used for Dry Bulk will be used for Liquid too.

Refinancing in June 2013 is a major event. They have a £10m OD facility at the moment that they rarely use.

Euro issues in Q4 2011, did cause a slowdown in business, with reduced volume, but they don't feel it will impact profit forecasts, and implied 'no news, is good news'

Hoyer, who opposed the Sinotrans deal, are still a significant shareholder, and meet with management regularly. Unsure of their future plans.

Sinotrans deal was done on a basis of value, not current share price, and that a broad range of prices were discussed. I congratulated the board for this transformational deal and price achieved.

All in all, I left happy. The board seem energised about the business and its opportunities, particularly the Chairman. The refinancing in June next year seems to be the most significant event coming up, as it could really be a chance to improve things.

Hope that helps.

[kimball808] 09/3/2012 14:34

coming back to life...

[the big fella] 08/3/2012 09:20

I haven't looked in for a while, but it's the first time in a while they are bidding for more stock than is on offer. Could be the turning point.

[azalea] 07/3/2012 08:11

Revenues forecast might be lower, but costs could be lower too and earnings higher.

[rathkum] 06/3/2012 22:26

Well a few months back brokers were forecasting revenues of £320m for 2012 & £336m for 2013.These revenues have now been scaled back to £309m & £321m. So quite a fair chunk but still showing growth.

[davydoo] 06/3/2012 12:38

thanks rathkum, will do.

Have you seen a note for those lower forecasts? Ive seen the numbers but no comment

[rathkum] 05/3/2012 23:47

davydoo

I am sure all of us on this board would welcome any feedback you can take from the AGM. I have a couple of questions you can put to the board should you be presented with a opportunity.

1. What is the overall impact to margins on current high oil prices.
2. Is the penetration into China resulting in material growth since our tie up with Sinotrans.
3.What sort of growth can we expect going forward considering the slowdown in Europe. Analyst have reduced their revenue forecast by £10m and £15m for 2012 % 2013 respectively to the one a few months ago. Hence the weakness in the share price.

Thanks in advance

[kimball808] 04/3/2012 10:43

Industrial transportation sector took a beating this week and suffered a 16% drop. Why??? still puts us at a 87% discount to the sector

[davydoo] 02/3/2012 19:31

I'm planning to go to the AGM on the 13th, so if anyone wants to ask anything, but can't attend, please let me know.

[davydoo] 02/3/2012 16:59

I'd expect them to be buys as well, knowing what I was buying at, and seeing recent sells.

[skyracer] 02/3/2012 16:34

rathkum they are both buys.