Innobox Share Discussion Threads

[biswell] 02/2/2006 15:12

Are you talking about this ?

biswell - 1 Dec'05 - 19:13 - 27865 of 27998 edit


Regarding the latest RNS and the $6m over 5 years contract win ..... just how is it likely to impact on the ARX balance sheet. $1.2m per year is not profit for a start .... it is an amount for product supplied by ARX . But what is the profit for ARX ?

That is the important thing , what margin are they doing the work for ? how much will they make ?

I put a few thoughts together to see what it might be

.............$1.2m sounds a lot but is it ? ........ Part 1

ARX needed to produce 7,000 ULD's per year to break even ..... at $1,700 per ULD this means 700 made for the middle Eastern Airline ... who does not want to be mentioned each year .... so approx only another 6,000 to find then.

B

biswell - 21 Oct'05 - 07:31 - 27607 of 27627 edit


.............$1.2m sounds a lot but is it ? ........ Part 2

Note that there was no mention of profit margin in the RNS which said $6m over 5 years, so I am going to be generous and say 20% profit margin , and this is generous as the last RNS on profit margins from the company dropped the share price badly.

So 20% of $1,200,000 = $240,000 or £137,142,85p

So it would seem a good deal, but then why has the airline who has no name made ARX wait for 5 years to give them what they want, and commit pen to paper now?

Arabs are the worlds best dealers/negotiators/hagglers , the Airline concerned just like all other Airlines within the industry know of ARX's plight as it's losses have grown, and it's order book has gone the other way.

They do their homework, they read the results and financial statements of comanies before sitting at the negotiating table to talk money. They all know that ARX is strapped for cash which is falling fast due to high wage bills and other overheads such as power. They know ARX needs work just to survive till the next year, so they also know the strong position they are in to be able to drive a hard bargain in a contract to suit themselves...in short, they know they are in the driving seat.

B


biswell - 21 Oct'05 - 07:54 - 27609 of 27627 edit


.............$1.2m sounds a lot but is it ? ........ Part 3

Here comes the mathematics , I will keep it simple for Knowing/Rex/LBO and all the other regulars because I realize they are a little lacking in this Dept. Whole easy numbers will be used where possible.......

The wage bill for ARX is around £1m per year, made up of circa £750,000 for manufacturing and the rest for management and sales agents.

At the drying of the ink....ARX would, being generous be sitting with a piece of paper worth around £140,000 to them in year one .... see post Part 1

Or so they thought, Wages and overheads like time and tidedo not stand still however. What was £1m at the contract signing will be 5% greater at the end of the year or £1,050,000

Year 2 .... assuming a reasonable 5% to include wages and all other O/Head cost increases this figure will have risen to £1,102,500

Year 3 .... ditto to £1,157,625

Year 4 .... ditto to £1,215,506.25

Year 5 .... ditto to £1,276,281.50

The generous 20% profit margin which resulted in earning £140,000 in year one is in fact eroded by £50,000 at the year end and becomes only £90,000

In year 2 the £140,000 is eroded by £102,500 and becomes £37,500

In year 3 the £140,000 is eroded by £215,506 and bcomes - £75,506


So you see the contact that is for 5 years to suit the Middle Eastern Airline with no name is only earnings enhancing for 2 years and then only to the tune of £127,000.

B

[biswell] 02/2/2006 15:11

ic0gcds00 - 4 Jan'06 - 15:39 - 1516 of 1522


bisewell u seem to know a lot about arx.......not

[musbe] 01/2/2006 08:58

I presume the Russell Stevens that runs this company (in his spare time?) is the same Russell Stevens that runs Meriden - a company where it is suggested on the Meriden thread on ADVFN that he has been taking the p*ss. I suppose good news is that Meriden looks like its just about bust so maybe he will be able to spend more time on this company (assuming there aren't a whole load of other super companies that he runs!)

[shawzie] 31/1/2006 15:16

MERIDEN RESULTS

Commenting, Russell Stevens, Chief Executive said:

"Two of our 2004 acquisitions failed to perform and management has taken the
tough decision of closing these operations. Our remaining core divisions have
continued to be profitable during the financial year. Indeed our recently
acquired Employee Benefits division has now established itself and has announced
some major blue chip account wins, with more announcements to follow. Our loss-
making French Logistics business is currently being evaluated. However, the
basic building blocks for success are in place and as a result the group is
poised for a period of sustained growth and we look forward to the future with
confidence"



Chairman's Statement

I am pleased to present this, my 2005 Chairman's report for Meriden Group plc.

During the year the Group made pre tax losses of #873,005 (2004: profit
#569,697) on a turnover of #8,891,713 (2004: #7,513,513).

The Group was, until this year, profitable since floatation on AIM in 2001 and
the Board anticipate a return to profitability as soon as the losses on the
French operation have been eradicated.

The remaining core divisions of IT Solutions, Marketing & Communications,
Management Consultancy and Outsourcing have delivered acceptable but
unspectacular results. However, the outlook for 2005/2006 is more encouraging
and significant and notable contracts have already been won by a number of these divisions.

As referred to in our Interim Statement, the Board has recruited further key
executives to strengthen its Head Office function in advance of our planned
expansion and I am therefore pleased to report the appointment to the Board,
from 1 February 2006, of Mr. Craig J. Povey as Chief Operating Officer who has

As I am sure many of our investors are aware our Chief Executive Officer Mr.
Russell Stevens had to take a period of compassionate leave to care for his
terminally ill wife. Unfortunately, Jane Stevens lost her battle with cancer in
October 2005 which necessitated Russell being out of the business for most of
the second half of the calendar year.

I am, however, pleased to report that he has now returned.
Despite the disappointing performance for the full year the Board has
nevertheless decided to recommend the payment of a final dividend for 2004/2005
of 0.006 pence per share.

Mr Derek Hall
Non-executive Chairman
30 January

[brianbush] 31/1/2006 11:43

Not been watching this share since I sold out around 7p. Just came to take a look at what posters are saying ...I'm off again...too scary...bye...

[shawzie] 28/1/2006 17:53

Beginning to move.
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN that an Extraordinary General Meeting of the Company has been called and will be held at Meriden House, 6 Great Cornbow, Halesowen
on February 24, 2006 at 9.00a.m.

[hendenne] 05/1/2006 09:02

Jasper - u'd better watch your bank account - seems like the INO hack has got your details and this has now been factored in with a resultant rise in share price.

[jasperminka] 04/1/2006 23:30

Hi guys- INO was a stock that I hold not much of (3000 shares, bought at an average of 12p) and failed to put a stop-loss on about a year ago. I still hold onto in the vain hope of a spectacular recovery. Not much chance it seems, but at least people are still on the backs of the management.

One warning - I just went online to the official Flash-enabled INO website ( and immediately received a virus called Bloodhound.Exploit.52 (which, according to Symantec, lurks in infected/hacked webpages with Macromedia Flash files). So, as well as reducing my shares' value by 85%, the lovely people at Innobox are now trying to infect my computer. Thanks!

Oh, energyi, any chance of updating the very long and not particularly accurate header. Thanks mate!

[ic0gcds00] 04/1/2006 15:39

bisewell u seem to know a lot about arx.......not

[jmillskeel] 30/12/2005 23:21

time will tell.

[shawzie] 30/12/2005 23:18

energyi
as you are still posting - perhaps you could reduce the amount of info in the header and bring it up to date. such action would be appreciated.

[energyi] 30/12/2005 15:24

2 pubs are up for sale, with no takers
# ==

Maybe someone here should buy them

[sack of spuds] 30/12/2005 15:16

you have to wonder at the motive behind the jmillskeel post?
"Ludlow council will not allow change of use imho and all that."???????????????

We all know its been aproved. so why post that non sense?
jmill ...what is your response?

[shawzie] 29/12/2005 12:40

biswell
I think that you are too optimistic - why talk about the end of 2007.
INO might well not survive until then - nav is already below 3p and heading below 2p by full year results.

[biswell] 29/12/2005 11:55

The fact that 2 pubs are up for sale, with no takers , says to me INO needs cash .

Losses are rising , and therefore more funding is coming I reckon

From my post above 'So my personal take is that the NAV is 3.6p , but property values are falling, and I expect another -30% fall over the next 3 years

So my prediction is a future NAV by end of 2007 is round figures 2.5p'

These numbers came a little sooner than anticipated, shows how bad things are


DYOR

B

[latestarter] 28/12/2005 20:18

change of use has already been approved and work has started

[jmillskeel] 28/12/2005 20:00

Plots in Leominster worth no more then 130k for the two, as for fishmore, Ludlow council will not allow change of use imho and all that.

[biswell] 28/12/2005 13:36

I know I'm not the most popular chocolate in the Ino box for coming up with this, but subsequent price action has been similar to those numbers mentioned

biswell - 28 Aug'05 - 12:21 - 1268 of 1489 edit


This is what I said a few weeks back.

biswell - 3 Aug'05 - 08:24 - 1208 of 1254


I have asked for the NAV to be revised and nobody has done so , this is what it is on the header

Net Asset Value Estimate / NAV as follows...

3.5m ARX shares @ 23.75p ...................... = £830,000
Moss Cottage Property = £1.0 mn.Est x 80% share = £800,000
Unreported Trading Profit from Moss Cottage = Say £100,000
Cash (again this isn't known, but a guess)..... = £200,000Est
Three Tuns chg.in property value since purchase = £ 50,000Est

------------------------------Approx Net Assets = £2,000K
------------------------------Which is approx 16p per share.



I will now put in my figures ...DYOR

Net Asset Value Estimate / NAV as follows...

1.9M ARX shares @ 5.25p , remainder sold ......... = Loss of - £400,000
Moss Cottage Property = £0.9 mn.Est x 80% share = £720,000
Unreported Trading Profit from Moss Cottage = Say £50,000
Cash (again this isn't known, but a guess)..... = £50,000Est
Three Tuns chg.in property value since purchase = £ 30,000Est

------------------------------Approx Net Assets = £450K
------------------------------Which is approx 3.6p per share.


So my personal take is that the NAV is 3.6p , but property values are falling, and I expect another -30% fall over the next 3 years

So my prediction is a future NAV by end of 2007 is round figures 2.5p

[wiganer] 28/12/2005 11:42

How about bonsai fish? Microcarp

[hendenne] 28/12/2005 10:55

This thread needs an 'R' inserted in the title.........

[biswell] 28/12/2005 10:45

Pick up the phone and order dinner then

B