Informa Share Discussion Threads

[25cent] 11/5/2009 12:25

This is getting hammered.
The real price is now 315p down 23p today.

[pckrowe] 11/5/2009 10:45

I have quite a few shares in Informa - should I sell the rights or buy the additional shares. Advice welcome please!

[25cent] 11/5/2009 09:15

If anyone is interested the ticker for the niL paid share is INFN.

[25cent] 08/5/2009 11:15

You did indeed ken ;-)

[kenmill] 07/5/2009 13:28

The market has taken all this quite well. The rights issue, rather more heavily discounted than one may have thought (my guess was nearer 25 cent's £2) has removed market fears of covenant breaches etc. The divi cut also helped. Currency levels continue to benefit the company and all divisions are doing reasonably well apart from PI, to which they have administered the medicine. Overall, if the world recovery commences this year (I still feel the market is a bit ahead of events) then the share price could drift a little higher over the coming months. If you remember, 25cents, I guessed, at the end of last year, the share price should be north of £4 on an 18 month - 2 year view. The current price is ahead of this and I would not expect too much progress until (unless) we get a set of good results in July and a bullish statement going forward.

[loryd] 07/5/2009 11:01

There's a piece on the Investors Chronicle website saying buy the rights and pushing the possible bid argument. Perhaps I am on my own, but I can't help thinking that buying companies with large debt is just not going to happen unless the private equity guys are stupid enough to use all their own money. In Informa's case you would probably have to pay £2bn, you'd take on well over £1bn of debt and you'd have profits post-tax of less than £200m (in a decent year). And of course you'd have to sell it on or float it a few years later hoping that economic growth had returned.

Mind you, a couple of years ago private equity were said to be looking at a leveraged buyout of Vodafone.

[typo56] 07/5/2009 10:16

If you sell before ex-rights (Monday 11 May) you don't qualify. Simple as that. Anyone selling yesterday (I call that Wednesday!) expecting the rights will be in for a nasty surprise.

But as you say, happens every time on rights issues - on ADVFN at least, the confusion caused by the 'record date'.

Existing Shares marked "ex-rights" by the London Stock Exchange 8.00 a.m. on 11 May 2009

[25cent] 07/5/2009 09:33

Yes that's rights as per post 321.
Market close on May 5th (Wednesday) was the cut off day i believe.
The selling yesterday (Thursday) was by the people who had sold the shares once they qualified for the rights at the close of business Wednesday.
Happens every time on rights issues.

[typo56] 07/5/2009 09:17

Er, but they are not ex-rights until 11 May. I bought today and fully expect to qualify for the rights. Ah well!

And when calculating the equivalent ex-rights price you need to take account of the dividend. Rights won't qualify for the forthcoming 3.9p

[25cent] 06/5/2009 08:24

Down she goes! just as expected.
The nil paids should be fun buying and selling after the 11th , with the daily swings in this share it could be very interesting.

[25cent] 06/5/2009 07:58

Dealings in New Ordinary Shares, nil paid, commence on the London Stock Exchange 11 May 2009 8.00 a.m ex rights .

[loryd] 05/5/2009 14:40

Sure was. At least I benefitted from the spat. Sorry!

I won't risk asking what you think will happen tomorrow.

Anyway, as I said, I don't do tomorrow.

[broadgreen] 05/5/2009 13:42

I beg your pardon, it was Loryd.

[25cent] 05/5/2009 13:37

"But you did say 'but I did read some broker had come up with a theoretical 255p price as a result of the issue,"

Well to be blatantly honest, no i did not say that?

But apology accepted, thank you.


Looks like this is now caught between a rock and hard place , people selling who do not want to pay for the rights and then tomorrow the other side of the coin as people who have the rights sell.

[broadgreen] 05/5/2009 12:45

'What i always find amazing about somepoeple on these threads is there outrageous confrontational attitude and downright rudeness.'


I quite agree with you 25cent, which is why I rarely post. I had no intention to be rude, and I don't think I was. But you did say 'but I did read some broker had come up with a theoretical 255p price as a result of the issue, whatever that means' and I thought I would try to explain how such a theoretical price would be arrived at. Also thought it is important to distinguish between a 'sell-off' which you anticipate but I don't, and a mark down.
Anyway I must have offended you, for which I apologise.

[loryd] 05/5/2009 12:33

Thanks for the respective explanations...

I suppose the long-term question is whether Informa is a better company for the extra cash. Obviously in the short-term yes, but I can't help thinking they haven't really done much to dent the debt, and I don't have faith in the management and their 'diversity in the face of more difficult times' argument. To state the obvious, it cold go either way, but certainly the share price doesn't look attractive to a long-term buyer like me. Still I am very often very wrong.

[25cent] 05/5/2009 12:06

What i always find amazing about somepoeple on these threads is there outrageous confrontational attitude and downright rudeness.

Broadgreen,I am fully aware how rights work,remember its me that told you months ago that INF was having one!
What i am specifically talking about is a sell off of the ordinaries' by the arb traders once they have the rights to the shares at 150p.

For the benefit of doubt i will break it down to its simplest form of explanation.
I think that it will fall far in extent of the ex right price using today's closing price.

¿Comprende?

[broadgreen] 05/5/2009 11:54

It is quite simple I think:
today if you buy 1000 shares at 350p your holding costs you £3500

tomorrow's price presumes that you have bought an additional 400 shares (2 for 5) at 150p each via the rights issue, costing you an additional £600. Your total holding of 1400 shares will have cost you £4100, giving an average price of 293p.

So the ex-rights price tomorrow morning, assuming no big change in the cum-rights price today, should be around 293p. This doesn't mean there has been a sell-off, much as 25cent would love to claim. It is a simple mathematical adjustment. And the fact that the ex-rights price is about the same level as the share price was before the rights issue was announced shows that the rights issue and chance of tax domicile have together made the stock more attractive.

[loryd] 05/5/2009 11:39

I confess I don't understand the trading around rights issues (actually to be more precise I don't understand short-term trading), but I did read some broker had come up with a theoretical 255p price as a result of the issue, whatever that means. National Express is another one where a rumoured rights issue has caused a big spike. Relief at short-term crises avoided and hope that all will be well seems to be the best explanation for Informa's current rise. A brave call.

[25cent] 05/5/2009 10:57

Qualifiying date for the rights is end of business today.
This surely must get sold off big time tomorrow when the arb boys who only bought for the rights sell up the ordinary's once they gain the rights to the 150p rights shares?

[mw8156] 03/5/2009 13:46

looks as though T and F is the best performing division so it's annoying for us t and f shareholders that progress is being held back by the rest of it and their rejection of the bids.

[25cent] 03/5/2009 10:40

Doc your right on that.

[loryd] 01/5/2009 14:54

"[We] see the move as a prudent step for Informa,' says Curr at Blue Index, 'as it not only secures finances for an uncertain market, but also makes the group an attractive bid target. We are buyers of Informa shares, with a short term target of 364p.' "

He may be right of course. Then again, common sense may prevail.

[loryd] 01/5/2009 13:22

I forgot about turning down the bid. Mind you they were in good company. You like to think they looked at it rationally but even if you don't accuse them of not wanting to give up their cushy number, I suspect they turned it down on the premise that the share price had been higher in the past so they shouldn't sell for less - the same argument that assumes that credit will be cheap again and revenues will always go up. Mind you, the private equity guys saved themselves some heartache. What on earth were they thinking?

I still think there will be a lot of revenue pain to come over the next couple of years and beyond. And maybe more rights issues. But I may be wrong of course. After all Anthony Bolton thinks the bear market is over (again).

[the_doctor] 01/5/2009 13:08

25 cent - most of Informa's income comes from outside the UK
If the UK govt has been so greedy and incompetent that they cant reduce corporate taxes during a recession, then it is hardly surprising that companies want to relocate headquarters to countries that manage their finances in a more prudent manner - it is sad, but that's the way of Blair and Brown's idiotic behaviour!