Informa Share Discussion Threads

[25cent] 26/11/2008 22:33

Yet again Ken shows his true colors .
"To give the note behind the rise today in full
14:40GMT 26Nov2008-Informa rises; "

Note behind the rise today in full????? eh? just where had any part of that post been posted in any form on this thread Ken?
Spiteful Ken attempts to make out that i copied the post of the INF rally being a short squeeze from the above Real-time Equity News release at 1440pm to try and distract his embarrassment of yet again having to read what i say come true on "his" thread?

Ken that's exactly why i find you loathsome, just show me any reference to this bear squeeze reference before I posted my comment on this thread documenting such at 11.54 am? almost 3 hours before the one that you attempt to make out i copied from was released?
Amazing!

-------------------------------------------------------------
PC

"I didn't really want to get involved "
Erm, clearly you do?

Obviously as a shareholder being long as you are, its natural for you to feel a certain distain towards someone like me who correctly gives advance notice of a massive share price collapse in a stock you hold.

What you have to try and understand is that someone who tells the story "how it actually is" to believers whom have only been fed on Kens properganda for years are never going to be popular on that particular tread with shareholders wanting to see the opposite to what i say happen. oh well!

What your saying is akin to being annoyed at the bloke next to you at the races because his horse won and your horse fell at the first hurdle after that guy predicted it would.
I am not looking for friends on the INF thread and neither will i attack you unless you attack or attempt to belittle me first like Kan and doc did.

I want the share price to fall obviously because i am short, although i would not take offence if some one was happy that the share price had increased, i would say well done and not be all bitter and pathetic about it like my mates Ken and Doc.
I see it as going with the territory, so don't take things personally unless they are addressed directly to you.

I only take comfort in undermining the fools and general know all's, whom really always turn out to know sweet F.A
time to take a bow Ken and Doc.

Just so the doc can not say your a made up name , could you tell me any other threads you have posted on on this site? or this this your first?

I suppose you can be forgiven for omitting to mention in your post that on a factual basis with regards the share price i have been correct in saying it would half in 5 weeks.
Also i am more than prepared and indeed have done in detail posted why this company is in serious trouble.

I then help out poor ken with regards brokers recs in a long post with out any thanks whatsoever, all this about 2 hours before one broker does exactly as i said they would on INF.
Then i tell the thread a short squeeze is happening on the stock 4 hours before its reported on the financial websites?
What do you want for nothing blood? LoL

I am not being funny but i am not getting the same quality information back am i?
What can you tell me about Inf pckrowe ?
I predict that the short squeeze will end and this will continue down, thats my opinion.

I don't understand why you think your long bet is the righteous and correct thing to do.In what way are you different to my short bet?
How are you helping employees and clients?If this debt mountain of a company goes under the business will remain it will just be owned by the banks don't you understand?
What honor does this company have? its now looking to avoid paying UK tax by moving to Ireland say the report today, why the hell should anyone show any respect for the board of Inf whom in my opinion have something of the night about them and show scant regards for shareholders.

[pckrowe] 26/11/2008 20:37

I didn't really want to get involved in this and I know it's a free country etc but it would be nice if this message board was for investors who generally want the company to do well and can therefore focus on positives as well as negatives (of which there are many around at the moment). 25 cent - you positively delight in every downward movement of the share and want to see Informa go bankrupt. Well, I can't see that's in anyone's interests here - investors, staff, clients etc. I can't see what you gain by just saying we're all doomed and I told you so. To be frank, it's monotonous and boring. No doubt you'll slag me off now in your usual respectful manner.

[25cent] 26/11/2008 18:00

while a trader attributes the gains to a 'bear
squeeze'.

I wonder who said that then on this thread? LOL but what the hell do i know eh Ken?

Hit a new wall of fresh shorts at £2 that i think is its upper trading limit, but lets see.

[kenmill] 26/11/2008 15:26

To give the note behind the rise today in full
14:40GMT 26Nov2008-Informa rises; Morgan Stanley says could rally

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Shares in Informa jump 26 percent after Morgan Stanley says the company is a
'decent candidate for a rally' while a trader attributes the gains to a 'bear
squeeze'.

In a note highlighting key messages from meetings of Informa's management with
investors last week, Morgan Stanley says that while trading conditions are more difficult, they are not markedly more so than at the time of the company's trading update at the end of October.

The broker also says the company remains hopeful of remaining within its
banking covenants in 2009, when its key covenant tightens.

Furthermore, the broker notes that mid-term, Informa is considering a cost
saving plan involving back office consolidation between the various businesses.

And it points out that the company appears to be considering a move of its tax
domicile to Ireland, which could push its tax rate into the low 20s from the
current 26 percent to 27 percent.

Wednesday's share price advance could also be down to short sellers closing
their positions.

'I think there was a bit of short interest out on (Informa). It could be
getting squeezed on that,' says Manoj Ladwa from ETX Capital.

[kenmill] 26/11/2008 13:38

Well, it didn't take long for the Panmure prediction to get passed. Looks like the shorters may be retiring (except for you of course) but, as I have said many times, discussion on short term movements is a waste of time. There is no point in commenting on your claim until it happens or not i.e whether UBS steadily drops its target price to around the current price or not. The current economic climate would have been a perfect excuse to dramatically cut their forecasts if they wanted to, so staying at £5 could be deemed unrealistic by some (and certainly by you). You reckon they will fall by 94%, I don't.

[25cent] 26/11/2008 11:06

If it makes you feel better Kenny then go for it.

Now then what about the rest of my post Ken? care to comment? you asked me no less than 6 times to explain broker recommendations, and now silence?
LOL


abcd, looks like a classic short squeeze, it should not last too long.

[abcd1234] 26/11/2008 09:37

why the 19% spike this am?
ta

[kenmill] 26/11/2008 09:02

25cent
Thank you for your very informative post. I will watch to see how remarkably accurate again you will be. I am honoured to be on the same bulletin board as such a guru. And one so modest not to have mentioned the short you had (immediately after the long you lost on during the bid) and to cover the fact so cleverly by pretending to rant against the company while you were secretly making so much money. I am not suggesting you were long after your loss - just that you didn't have a position because you had lost on your punt over the bid.

[the_doctor] 25/11/2008 17:03

"Oh and if you had shorted it back in September I think you would have shared your joy with us instead of endless ranting" yes!

[kenmill] 25/11/2008 17:02

Yes I am really green 25 cent. They are not the house brokers so please explain why they tell their clients to buy with a target of £5 when they really think they are worthless. Oh and if you had shorted it back in September I think you would have shared your joy with us instead of endless ranting - or am I being green again ?

[25cent] 25/11/2008 12:08

It must be frustrating that you didn't actually short it yourself and make money out of your prediction. WTF? lol

I love the way this against all odds keeps underperforming,even failing to join in on a 8% market one day rally, i wonder why i say this ken? is it due to me being long do you think?

You either don't seem to understand or are just blocking the fact that the movement of the ftse 250 is sharp up's and downs whilst INf only ignores the ups and then over eggs the down days.

Like i told you 5 weeks ago a classic sign of a share in freefall.
Your explanation that no one is buying shares is far too over simplistic, obviously your incorrect or the market would just fall every sing day.
What you really should have said is that no one is buying INF and that is why it massively underperforms the market every single day.
Why is that? why does it unlike the majority of the other constituents of the ftse 250 fail to bounce and only fall?
Well Ken see all my previous posts for the reasons why this is just hanging around waiting for the next ftse down day to start collapsing again.

You can spin all you like these are the facts Inf is down 65% as against the ftse 250 down about 30% in the same time.
Just four weeks ago the ftse 250 was around this level today and inf was at 250p its lost nearly 40% since then on a level market?
Its not just the market or sentiment its cold hard realization that the debt of INF makes it business model completely untested in a recession and this breeds fear that this may even make the company virtually worthless.

I expect panic sales of part of the business before to long to try and reduce the massive debt mountain.
I remain a with a target FOR MY short of 100p.
Is that clearer for you ken?

If your really so green i will explain how brokers move their recommendations if you want Ken.
I don't know why i am surprised you don't know how they work.

[kenmill] 24/11/2008 13:38

pckrowe
Prudential have just announced that they have purchased another 500,000 shares so we are not alone.

[pckrowe] 24/11/2008 08:24

Thanks for this, kenmill. I keep telling myself that these unbelievable drops are based on fear and wholly negative sentiment generally but to see the price down by two-thirds on the offer price in such a short space of time is scary. I'm hoping for a reassuring update in December!

[kenmill] 23/11/2008 16:38

25 cent - I have to give it to you – you did predict this and it happened. Congratulations. I suspect you may have been right for the wrong reasons but that is just nit-picking. It must be frustrating that you didn't actually short it yourself and make money out of your prediction. The main reason it fell sharply last week, apart from the continuing shorting, was the news from Expomedia which you may not have seen. Informa invested £1.7 million in them in 2003 and did conference/exhibition joint ventures in eastern Europe and India. This investment represents 3% of Expo's share capital. They came out with a profit warning and stated they would have to re-negotiate their finances. This is a tiny company (it has only made a profit once in the last 5 years) and a tiny investment re INF but obviously the sentiment is negative and suggests difficult times ahead for the conference/exhibitions side.
In relation to the share price discussion, you are still missing the point. You want to talk about the day-to-day price fluctuations (presumably because you are a short term trader) and I am looking further ahead. Your rant with the_doctor a couple of weeks ago is a good example. Endless arguments as to whether the then short term recovery in the price matched the FTSE recovery over the same period. ( A comparison with the FTSE 250 is more relevant as INF is a 250 constituent and the 250 has fallen nearly 60% from its high) 2 weeks later both have fallen back again so that whole vitriolic argument was totally pointless. I have not been discussing the short term price movement. Almost all my posts relate to forward views in relation to news, results, director buying, take-over news etc.
Your new prediction of £1 would put them on a prospective p/e of 2 and a yield of 13%. I acknowledge that next year the results will be lower so they will not be on a p/e of 2 in 2009 but that price assumes a disastrous profits crash. Given the scientific publishing side is still doing well, that means the conference/business side would have to go into seriously big losses. Not impossible – nothing is these days. Also, as I said before, with few buyers of any stock at the moment, a shorter can go on for a long time and, again, it is pointless trying to guess where it will stop. My point is that, in 18 months time, I don't believe it will be anywhere near £1 and that is all I'm interested in.
I have said that, on a 2 year view, it is worth over £4 (as have UBS – I am still waiting for your translation of what they really mean). Institutional holders obviously take this view as well. 6 weeks ago so did you and presumably you were long then, not short, otherwise we wouldn't have been treated to all this bile ever since. You are equating a long term view with a current view and saying you are right. This is why I have no intention of continuing a debate on the short term price. I am sure you can find someone else to discuss it with.

[kenmill] 22/11/2008 12:36

the answer is no then on not wanting to answer my question re what UBS really mean when they allegedly lie to their clients ?

[25cent] 21/11/2008 02:38

LOL it must be so painful experience every single thing i say about this materializing in front of you, whilst at the same time trying to hold up your increasingly thin vial as inf expert and general know all.
Ken yet again so convenient that all of a sudden you don't want to talk about the share price, strange because looking back on this thread you have never ever had this stance before?
Indeed you have only been too happy to tell anyone that would listen about the share price.
Your not only a sore loser Ken your deluded and out of touch so much its painful.

You can say what you like in your personal delusions,my posts and predictions hold water, i have given you 5 weeks notice that this was going to 150p despite your pathetic belittling comments about that target on this thread.(when apparently you did not have a ban ob talking about the share price)
Well i know who's laughing the loudest Ken.

Your increasing looking more foolish by the post.

450p or 150p ? in shareholders to reject the offer?
LOL Well at leat the greedy selfserving scum on the board are happy.

I have moved my short target down to 100p.

[kenmill] 19/11/2008 09:08

The question about the real meaning of the UBS note. You are obviously better at interpreting them than me.(see the end of my post 228).
As you acknowledge that this is being shorted, it must be one of the most pointless exercises going, to both predict when it will stop and at what price. The one thing that is guaranteed with shorters is that, at some point, they stop and go away to pick on another one. At what price they decide to do this, to me, is irrelevant and only relevant to short term dealers. That is why I am not interested in the short term movement.
If you want to mention the share price every day - fine- it's a free country and there may be other people interested as well. I am not one of them.

[kenmill] 18/11/2008 10:49

Not willing to answer the question then ?

[25cent] 17/11/2008 11:54

Guess what Ken, its doing exactly as i said it would yet again..
I wonder what the hell you are going to say to save face when this goes below 150p.

[kenmill] 17/11/2008 09:10

mw8156
I agree, with the benefit of hindsight, that either bid is currently preferable to the current share price. Informa has gone down more or less with the media sector. The main differences between INF and many others in the sector are 1) INF has little exposure to advertising and 2) it has more debt than many. The first is obviously a plus and the second is a potential worry and one that 25cent quite rightly deems a factor.
I happen to think that the debt will be managed and that their results will not fall off a cliff. Time will tell. The business/conference side will be the side that does fall - it is a question of how far and to what extent they can mitigate it. We don't have too long to wait until the next update.
25cent - it is only the 2 personas that you introduced per my posting 219. Perhaps you could explain to me the true meaning of the UBS downgrade. When they tell their clients that they should buy INF with a £5 target, presumably they are lying to their clients and really mean what ?