Indivior Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 18/2/2016 11:22

Good comments Greg.Haven't sold any and will wait and see what emerges from question and answer.Cutting the dividend is often regarded as salutary.The stock has also been very weak which suggests that this news was widely anticipated.Frankly,the share price movements of this stock have always been something of a mystery to me!

[gregmorg] 18/2/2016 10:21

Mm, I can see your disappointment re future dividends etc but maybe a bit more time to reflect is needed. Overall the figures were as expected so no panic there!

The dumping of the Nasal Nalaxone product, following the FDA complete response letter,was strongly hinted at months ago and to see it formally dumped is no surprise. It was low profitability anyway.

The additional resources to be applied in the current year to pre-marketing another new product, Monthly Bup Depot, not insignificant but surprised me with its-implied associated confidence, given Phase 3 not complete. Quite a risk cutting the future dividend flow out at this stage given that the projected Company revenues and cash flow are not too far adrift of the year just gone. So why now! Is it a sign of confidence that the drug pipeline will soon start to kick in to show the company's increasing underlying value and it can stand on its own two feet?

I will try to listen in to the briefing at 12 o'clock(it can be difficult to stay the course let alone understand it all!) and see where we go from there.

[steeplejack] 18/2/2016 08:13

And the stock goes up.Oh well,I'm clearly well out of the loop!

[steeplejack] 18/2/2016 07:59

This nicely summarises the current position and cuts through the waffle.Why lure investors with a one year dividend payout and then abandon that policy while applauding themselves for a year of good progress.No wonder the price has been falling.Clearly,this decision was leaking out.This company clearly believes that it can behave like some biotech and ignore dividend payments.Well,I'm not convinced that's the case.Can only hope someone comes along and takes the company over.Future Dividend PolicyThe Board, as indicated in the prospectus for the demerger in November 2014, has considered future dividend policy in the light of the Company's current financial position, strategy and prospects. Given the uncertainties facing the Company, including generic challenges to the intellectual property of Suboxone(R) film, the level of gross debt together with the associated covenants and the need to seek to diversify the sources of revenue and cash-flow, the Company does not expect to pay ordinary dividends for the foreseeable future.

[steeplejack] 18/2/2016 07:46

Bloody disaster .Have abandoned paying a dividend.RB did well to spin this off when it did,a corporate "hospital pass".

[steeplejack] 08/2/2016 15:55

Stock has now halved in just 6 months but thereagain,to put that in context, Prudential has dropped a quarter in less than a month!

The equity market is ridiculously feral and barely fit for purpose.

[slogsweep] 04/2/2016 08:42

results due on 18th Feb may as well wait till then can't get much worse

[steeplejack] 30/1/2016 10:46

The sector has taken a buffeting of late but support has evaporated here.Lets see what the results throw up.

[gregmorg] 29/1/2016 13:02

Been a disappointing few months with nothing immediate or near term coming out of the Research Day. The Nasal Naloxone FDA disappointment, although not a big product, is starting to look like more than a deferral so the hurdles might well be greater than a few tweaks and re submission on 30 or even 90 days.

Still we get the next figures in about a month and things may start to look clearer. Management enthusiasm, possibly egged on by now being a stand alone company, may have encouraged us to be too enthusiastic at too early a stage as well. Patting oneself on the back for a great stock market spin off find is once again a big mistake. Still, we will soon be able to examine again!

[gregmorg] 05/12/2015 11:12

The share sales position has been very confusing with the legacy JAB disposal technically taking place between 9th Nov and 30 Nov. so no announcement in that period! My understanding is the institution which took the stake covered it with a series of complex hedging arrangements presumably allowing them to place their stock/or much of it, in the market with the minimum of fuss/publicity. The JAB disposal took time to soak up possibly weakening the share price over a period .Even 9th November could be a false start date as positions would have been taken well before then. So we could have some explanation for the share price performance since the summer!

Actually I am less concerned with the recent term share price performance but more concerned with the longer term development of the product and revenue base. The Co's research and teach in date of 9 Dec is hopefully a significant event rather than one buying time. Not long to wait.

[farmsted] 05/12/2015 10:39

Other large sales at the end of every days trading this week and the share price has held up well, where to now ???

[gregmorg] 01/12/2015 18:12

The JAB NV disposal of 76m shares is a v big transaction and will have been placed either with a series of institutions or one large buyer and no doubt quite soon we will find out who or what was on the the other side. JAB was a legacy investor in R and B and obviously Indivior did not form part of its long term strategy.So be it!

[gregmorg] 25/11/2015 10:37

Now we wait for Co response!

[gregmorg] 25/11/2015 10:34

FDA does not leak! Having said that, sometimes I guess there could be a clarification request which must put people on alert that things are not progressing as was hoped. That is my guess.

Now we wait for the co response. A Re-submission of an application or efficacy supplement, once lodged can either take 2 months or six months for either a Class 1 or Class 2 case review. The FDA decides the category. So not all over for this product but definitely a delay

[steeplejack] 25/11/2015 10:15

Yes disappointing.I wonder if sticking points with the FDA hadn't leaked out and haven't been largely discounted.This has had a hell of pull back from around 270p.Thereagain,I was struggling to understand why the stock got to that price level and should have top sliced.Hey ho ,hindsight.

[gregmorg] 25/11/2015 09:37

Must admit last night's news a bit disappointing, however looked at.

[bamboo2] 04/11/2015 09:41

Looks like a Head and Shoulder chart pattern.

[gregmorg] 04/11/2015 09:36

Yes Steeplejack, your numbers look pretty spot on.

I listened to much of the webcast last night and that sounded OKish but, I am afraid to say, no near term excitement. The couple of timing delays re product highlighted the dangers of over enthusiasm from new management teams. The projected numbers for 2015 are one thing ( and a good omen!) but the investors /research day upcoming guidance for 2016 is needed. That may relieve us as we strain with the new product wait. We really need the known revenue decline story to move on into the vaunted tomorrow's envisaged growth story.
So a bit annoyed with myself for patting myself on the back too early for this great spin off/restructuring find but I still believe it will happen.

[steeplejack] 03/11/2015 14:09

Looks oversold to me.On guidance of perhaps 32cents of earnings for the full year,you're looking at prospective PE of around 10x at current xrates and on the basis of a 40% of earnings dividend payout,a prospective yield of some 4%.Certainly a hold and a good buy on further weakness

[shammytime] 03/11/2015 09:20

Should see 240-250 in the next day or so

[bruceylegs] 26/10/2015 16:00

Q3 results due on 3 Nov according INDV's website.

[steeplejack] 07/10/2015 16:31

Reason for price fall,Sandoz attempting to launch generic competition.* Sandoz letter indicated it submitted ANDA to U.S. FDA for approval of commercial manufacture, sale of generic formulation of co's suboxone sublingual film product* Indivior's orange book listed patents have expiration dates of February 13, 2023; April 3, 2024; and March 26, 2030* Intends to assert and enforce its intellectual property against Sandoz and will initiate a patent infringement lawsuit against Sandoz Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage: (Bengaluru Newsroom: [phone])

[rebess4] 03/8/2015 11:40

I'm new to Indivior so haven't a lot to say. - One observation is that they seem to suffer wild swings in their daily trading patterns.