Independent News & Media Share Discussion Threads

[pas100] 12/6/2014 10:21

Very interesting that the share price has been 'knocked down' by the MMs this morning with no news flow and not a single trade!

Are they fishing for shares before before the next leg up??

May be seen some stop losses and looking for a tree shake

I am a long term holder and not getting caught out by this

Looks very positive to me

[caveat_emptor] 07/6/2014 02:45

"Pressed about when the company may resume dividend payments, Mr Buckley declined to give a date but he did say that the share price was likely to rise.

"I'm pleased to say the share price has increased quite considerably from where it was this time last year but it has a way to go," he added."

[caveat_emptor] 06/6/2014 12:58

Friday 6 June 2014

Business Newsletter
INM set for further growth after 'transformational' year, chairman Leslie Buckley
Shareholders attending company AGM today told of growth in digital and improved advertising in second half

[caveat_emptor] 04/6/2014 12:33

Well over 50m shares traded since the last report...

[caveat_emptor] 20/5/2014 13:59

Goodbody's View

Independent News & Media Encouraging trends, comfort on full year
Independent News & Media released an IMS yesterday evening highlighting further improvements in current trading with revenue –2.8% in the year to May 16th. Improvements in current trading are evident with the group noting a decline in print advertising of 2.4% in the year to date versus the 2.8% decline reported in current trading to March 13th. It notes recruitment, property and inserts as showing the largest yoy increases in advertising in print. It also highlights the ROI performance in the year to date, -1%, thus the Northern Irish business is the primary drag on revenue growth.
In digital, advertising revenues increased by 17.8% versus the 14.6% increase reported in current trading with its full year results noting growth is principally due to its digital publishing operations. Northern Ireland classifieds and its GrabOne business is showing marginal growth in the year to date.
Circulation revenue is down 2.5% yoy, which will have been helped by cover price increases put through at the end of 2013. In terms of its cost base, the group continued to deliver on its cost saving programme helping to mitigate the impact of lost revenue on profitability. In the year to date operating costs are down 2.8%.
The statement also notes that Vincent Crowley, CEO, has resigned from the Board as of yesterday and in conjunction with the executive management team a sub-committee of the Board (Leslie Buckley, Triona Mullane, Allan Marshall and Terry Buckley) will assume responsibility for management of the group pending the appointment of a new CEO. It notes the search for a replacement CEO is ongoing.
Overall, these results are encouraging and give us comfort that the revenue line for Independent News & Media is beginning to show signs of stabilisation. In addition, continued strong growth in its online offering can help towards offsetting any structural pressure in print. In terms of our full year forecasts, we are likely to maintain our current estimate of €35.5m EBITDA for FY14, but bias to numbers is to the upside if current trends are maintained.

[caveat_emptor] 20/5/2014 13:57

IN&M - (N/C)
Previous Close
€0.158
 IN&M's interim statement has shown a decline in Group Revenues by 2.8%
 Trends within Advertising are continuing to improve however, with Digital up 17.8% and Newspaper down 2.4%
 Management note that trading trends have continued to improve since the full year results in March
Comment: IN&M is continuing on the road to normalisation, and the improving market trends that the company notes are encouraging. That said, weaker top-line numbers are being offset by ongoing cost reductions across the business, as part of project Resolute. With much of the easy savings having already been stripped out of the business during the prior project Quantum, maintenance of the bottom line depends on the success of this program in the short term. Another area of concern is the ongoing search for a replacement for CEO Vincent Crowley, whose previously announced resignation takes effect as of yesterday. The shares are trading on 8.8x FY14e EV/EBITDA, a premium to the 5 year average of 7.8x
20TH MAY 2014
www.cantorfitzgerald.

[caveat_emptor] 20/5/2014 13:55

DAVY VIEW
INM issued an encouraging IMS last night, covering the period
from January 1st to May 16th 2014, which highlights improving
trends, especially in the Republic of Ireland (ROI). Trading
conditions continue to improve relative to those experienced at
the time of the announcement of the full-year results on March
13th 2014. Circulation revenues and advertising revenues are
trending better than our expectations for the first half of the
year. Northern Ireland lags the ROI in terms of performance.
The CEO's resignation is effective as of last night (May 19th). A
subcommittee of the Board, in conjunction with executive
management, will assume responsibility for management of the
group pending appointment of a new CEO.

[caveat_emptor] 19/5/2014 18:39

New technology........New Markets.

[caveat_emptor] 19/5/2014 18:19

Most shareholders that I know have invested in the company's long term
recovery and a strategy that is not based exclusively on the PRINTED word.

[wexboy] 19/5/2014 05:34

Company: Independent News & Media

Prior Post(s): 2012 & 2013

Ticker: INM:ID

Price: EUR 0.155

So, I s'pose I got it horribly wrong last year – I pegged INM as worthless! But that's because I choose to foolishly dwell in a world where equity holders in an over-leveraged company, with declining revenues, actually get wiped out (or diluted to irrelevance) in a debt restructuring... [I really should cop on - there's been plenty of counter-examples since the bloody financial crisis!] So the loss I foresaw actually occurred, except the pain was mostly taken by the creditors & pension fund instead. The only call on shareholders was a placing & open offer to raise a net EUR 40 million, and even that was primarily funded by Denis O'Brien & Dermot Desmond (via IIU). [Which leaves them firmly in control with 29.9% & 15%, respectively. Tony O'Reilly's still a presence, but his 5.0% stake's now a mere irritant. Notably, Vincent Crowley's departure was recently announced - he was the last remnant of the O'Reilly reign]. So, where does all this leave Independent News now?

Well, I'm astonished to see investors now appear to love INM almost as much as they previously hated it... I guess now the debt problem's fixed, people have forgotten all about INM's other little problem...er, it's a classic old media empire, with an apparently never-ending decline in revenues!? Anyway, I really don't believe the debt problem's been fixed myself. In fact, the whole restructuring exercise puzzles me – I mean, if you're going to do something, bloody well do it right!

2013 revenue was reported at EUR 322 million (on a continuing basis), down 6.6%. Expense cuts actually delivered a stable (pre-exceptional) operating profit of EUR 33 M, so the operating margin increased slightly (into double digits, at 10.1%). But I see no end in sight for continued restructuring/exceptional expenses, and I'm still dubious of INM's cash generation, so I continue to focus on the cash flow statement instead. This confirms operating free cash flow continues to fall well short (of operating profit) at 23 M. But this figure includes INM's profitable South African unit, which was sold last August – I wouldn't be surprised by a 40%+ reduction if SA were stripped out. I suspect the underlying operating margin's probably more like 4.3%. Let's be kind & presume an average margin of 7.2% is possible, now the debt restructuring's given the company some breathing room – this deserves the same 0.6 P/S multiple as last year.

Unfortunately, we still don't have adequate coverage for an expected 6.5 M interest bill for 2014 (based on the dramatic reduction in net debt to 95 M). Assuming a 7.2% average operating margin, we'd need to see a further reduction in total debt (by almost 50%, or 60 M) to limit interest expense to 15% of operating profit. [This may seem conservative, but that kind of leverage may still prove problematic for a business that remains in decline]. To this (negative) debt adjustment we should also add the remaining net pension deficit of 61 M. However, we do have an offset – INM's 18.6% stake in APN News & Media (APN:AU) – a ridiculous trophy asset that should have been sold years ago, but at least its value has recovered somewhat in the past year (to AUD 128 M). Add all this up & we have:

(EUR 322 M Revenue * 0.6 P/S – 60 M Debt Adjustment – 61 M Net Pension Deficit + 192 M APN Shares * AUD 0.67 / 1.4952 EUR/AUD) / 1.4 B Shares = EUR 0.114

Surprisingly, Independent News is only slightly over-valued at this point. But the company still presents plenty of operational & financial risk, whereas any realistic bull case is pretty much limited to a potential stabilization & exploitation of a pretty mature business (at the very best). What's puzzling is both O'Brien & Desmond have an eye for value, but they're primarily growth investors – INM really doesn't seem to fit the bill for them at all...

Price Target: EUR 0.114

Upside/(Downside): (26)%

[caveat_emptor] 15/5/2014 14:48

Advertising revenues on the up?

[caveat_emptor] 26/4/2014 11:55

Indexia now down to 69.3m shares.

[caveat_emptor] 18/3/2014 13:27

UTV gets Irish Licence and reports improving advertising trend.

Peers tell it all.

[caveat_emptor] 15/3/2014 07:58

Michael Miller tunes APN towards a greater radio presence

Glenda Korporaal
The Australian
March 15, 2014 12:00AM

AFTER less than nine months in the job, APN chief executive Michael Miller has pulled off several major deals, a $123 million rights issue, more than doubled his company's share price and this week celebrated the success of newly acquired radio stars Kyle and Jackie O.

[caveat_emptor] 15/3/2014 05:24

Moneybags wonders why now?
If you lost 500 million would you take it lying down,
put it down to experience, or spend the rest of your
natural born days getting your money back...apart from one or two
other observations as to Dobbie's motivation?
Anyone would think the poor man a charity, the way some
people think and question.
It's a strategy.....and if he gets his money back,
so do we!

[caveat_emptor] 13/3/2014 10:12

"We expect these results to be well received by the market"

[caveat_emptor] 13/3/2014 09:54

Yep...cautious optimism.....most pundits had forecast, including
Moneybags for a change got the profit expectation right forecasting share price of 42 cent
pre rights 20 cents post...so I would see that as our target and no ex dividend
discountof 10% usually.....but dividend return at end of 2014 is forecast.

Denis may have lost last year 500m at the end of his titanic struggle with the
AOR's, but their memory will be shortlived I suspect now that they are almost out of this scenario. Now that with help he effectiveky owns and controls the paper,
he won't get a better opportunity to do the decent thing and take the rest of the
company that he does'nt own with his friends.

But I don't yet see his "out"...? The strategy is there....his half a billion may yet look a fair price...but what is the objective of getting this whole thing right...surely 10m digital platform is paltry and must be accelerated to make up lost ground, they were in late...is there anything in his other media portfolio that would help this developing sector quantum leap INM into the future.....
An acquisition or a erged interest can only be ON THE ISLAND OF IRELAND which is where I quote MR Crowley saying that is where INM will be...suggesting more
capital inflow and borrowings eliminated by the sale of APN.

Interestig dont you think...but a bloody good buy with divvies expected soon...
one for the pension fund ...again?

[caveat_emptor] 13/3/2014 09:44

Full year results ahead of expectation; current trading is encouraging
DAVY VIEW
This is both a reassuring and encouraging set of results from
Independent News & Media.
The group delivered on its objectives and expectations during 2013 and the current signs
of improvement in the Irish economy are slowly starting to manifest themselves in INM's operations. The current rate of advertising revenue decline is ahead of our forecasts for 2014.
Mindful that we are only a little more than two months into the year and noting the company's comments with regard to visibility we are unlikely to fully book the current run rates for
advertising revenue into our numbers just yet. However, we will make modest positive revisions to our 2014 forecasts. We expect these results to be well received by the market
–net debt is ahead of forecast, and it appears that the group is now reaching a turning point in earnings momentum.

[carlo sartori] 13/3/2014 07:50

RNS out on 2013 results.

Seems a pretty positive RNS. Nice to se the EPS at 3.0c which means a the current share price at 15c is only a 5 times multiple of earnings - not overly aggressive I would have thought. If the outlook for the Irish economy in particular is positive I think we can move the share price on from here?

Carlo

[caveat_emptor] 12/3/2014 17:43

It would certainly be coming at the right time.

[carlo sartori] 12/3/2014 00:04

I'll wager that the outtake from Thursday's web broadcast will be positive for the shareprice - but wtfdik!