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IMM Immupharma Plc

2.18
0.00 (0.00%)
28 Mar 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Immupharma Plc LSE:IMM London Ordinary Share GB0033711010 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 2.18 2.10 2.26 - 0.00 00:00:00
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Finance Services 0 -3.81M -0.0114 -1.91 7.27M
Immupharma Plc is listed in the Finance Services sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker IMM. The last closing price for Immupharma was 2.18p. Over the last year, Immupharma shares have traded in a share price range of 0.83p to 3.78p.

Immupharma currently has 333,403,115 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Immupharma is £7.27 million. Immupharma has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -1.91.

Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

Showing 7376 to 7397 of 39125 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
13/12/2017
23:53
top tips, people have done so in the past, but yes I think the 95% claim by hottingup was a separate issue as he was talking about getting to market rather than success in this trial.
zakooska
13/12/2017
23:51
If the efficacy of both Lupuzor and Benlysta improved with time, I personally don't see anything wrong with prof bb's extrapolation of Lupuzor's Phase 2b figures to 9 months - and it is just an extrapolation, with a couple of ?? at the end. Interesting point though. Even if we end up with 85% or 90% that would be amazing.
top tips
13/12/2017
23:40
And while we're copy and pasting:

All that the p-value gives you is the probability that results as (or more) extreme than those you observed would arise by chance. This is entirely distinct from the probability of success in a repeat trial. That is called the power of the trial i.e. the probability of finding statistical significance under the assumption that the drug is effective.


There is no way to use the p-value to make any sort of calculation of the power of the PIII trial. I feel this should be made clear as a few people have tried to do this.

zakooska
13/12/2017
23:35
If anything the longer 12 month Phase 3 Lupuzor trial could produce better efficacy results than the shorter 3 month Phase 2b trial, as evidenced by the improved efficacy in the 6 month follow-up results to the Phase 2b trial.

Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf

P.S.
Probability of these results being down to chance, less than 2.5%

--------------------

professor bang bang
13 Dec '17 - 20:11 - 7307 of 7331

Improvement rates with Lupuzor

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

englishlongbow
13/12/2017
23:21
moneymaker, I am not trying to argue to the contrary, and agree it is likely to happen, just pointing out that no actual calculations have been done to arrive at the 95% claim.
zakooska
13/12/2017
23:20
His claim was 95% chance of getting to market, not an improvement rate.

I have been invested for a few months and see this as a very good opportunity, I just wanted to clear up some of the misconceptions regarding how clinical trials and statistics work.

zakooska
13/12/2017
23:19
Sorry zakooska but there is a very strong basis for an approximation to hottingup's figure and he has not picked a random number.

Anyway -- I also think lupuzor will get to market. Period. That is my opinion based on all the information I have seen.

money maker1
13/12/2017
23:15
If after 6 months improvement was 84% v placebo (45%) then its not inconceivable after 12 months improvement rate to be 95% which is hotting's figure. I know it's not delving into true probabilities but heck no one will know for sure until the readout. I don't think anyone here can provide an accurate mathematics on any percentage.

However based on the probable outcome, is it any wonder why IMM have gone a step further in submitting approvals for manufacturing of Lupozor. They are obviously very confident and expecting very positive results. Also the movement in the share price is telling a lot if you analyse the daily trades you can see a pattern emerging as someone is accumulating whatever they can. Not a done deal but as one or two well informed posters have stated it is as good as (or better) than anything else at a comparative stage. I am holding, will add as the opportunity arise. GL & DYOR.

divinessence
13/12/2017
23:14
moneymaker I am not disputing how consistent he has been in his claims! I am just pointing out that there is no basis for this figure. Basically he is just saying that he thinks the drug will get to market, then picking a random high percentage to make it sound more technical.

To be clear, I am not making any claims at all about the efficacy of lupuzor, I was just pointing out some misconceptions that people have relating to clinical trials and p-values.

NYBoy, I don't know how relevant that is, I joined as I was concerned about the level of misunderstanding shown here about statistics. I used to work as a statistician on pre-clinical trials which I consider to be more pertinent than when I joined the forum.

zakooska
13/12/2017
23:07
zakooska
Member since: 13 Dec 2017

ny boy
13/12/2017
23:06
professor bang bang
Member since: 06 Dec 2017

ny boy
13/12/2017
23:04
hottingup has been pretty consistent with his figure and made it clear he is talking about a 95% chance of reaching the market. I personally think he is about right and prof bb's extrapolation does give me added confidence. Furthermore you cannot just ignore the excellent Phase 2b data came with a probability of being down to chance of less than 2.5% which is pretty impressive by any standards.

The multiple indications for Lupuzor P140 further increase the odds on getting to market, most likely in several indications.

Why not go ask Barbie Manchester who tried all the autoimmune drugs for her lupus and said Lupuzor was for her the best of them all and when she was on it she felt like she did not even have lupus.

P.S.
Barbie Manchester:

Woman named Barbie Manchester from North Carolina with terminal Lupus took Lupuzor under Right to Try legislation, with the result she didn't know she was ill during that time. Since then she has had other treatments none of which gave the benefits of lupuzor:



The drug administered in her first trial, Lupuzor, worked well. But after three years, the trial ended. “That was very devastating,” she said. “For me personally, that was the best medication. You’d never have known I was sick.”

money maker1
13/12/2017
22:56
Maybe 12 months will improve the results but we don't know. I'm not saying it's 50/50, but it is pointless to make simplistic extrapolations such as that above.

And allow me to stress again that the p-value in the PII trial cannot be used to infer the probability of success at PIII.

Still waiting for hottingup to post his calculations for the 95% claim.

zakooska
13/12/2017
22:36
professor bang bang
13 Dec '17 - 20:11 - 7307 of 7331

Improvement rates with Lupuzor

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??

englishlongbow
13/12/2017
22:35
If anything the longer 12 month Phase 3 Lupuzor trial could produce better efficacy results than the shorter 3 month Phase 2b trial, as evidenced by the improved efficacy in the 6 month follow-up results to the Phase 2b trial.

Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf

P.S.
Probability of these results being down to chance, less than 2.5%

englishlongbow
13/12/2017
22:34
Thanks for the reply Asat91, so I now know that you are a Maths teacher. I don't know how you find the time to invest unless you are now retired. You and the others tonight have given your thoughts and Hottingup has given his opinion.
lukead
13/12/2017
22:30
Speaking of figures plucked out of the air, maybe you could share your calculations that lead you to concluding a 95% probability of the drug getting to market?
zakooska
13/12/2017
22:27
asat must be a complete imbecile to try to make anyone believe Lupuzor only has a 50% to 75% POS.

Even normal immunosuppressents have a 63% POS once in Phase 3, so he obviously plucked his figures out of the air.

In contrast Lupuzor is not an immunosuppressent but an immuno modulator, so it has an obvious advantage regardles of trial size and stage; and we know from results already published it has produced the best ever efficacy data and has a completely benign safety profile.

Another way to look at it, is to ask yourself, is Lupuzor better than Benlysta (i.e. more efficaceous and safer) and have the FDA given any special assurances of approval if the results are OK (e.g. SPA and Fast Track status)? If the answer is 'yes' (and I think you will find it is on each point) then Lupuzor will get to market.

hottingup
13/12/2017
22:23
Just for the record:


hottingup - 11 Dec 2017 - 10:38:17 - 7105 of 7327

Lupuzor has a 95%+ probability of reaching the market imo.


hottingup - 10 Dec 2017 - 17:46:13 - 7031 of 7327

QS we have already established the Lupuzor Phase 3 outcome is not a binary 50/50 bet. With Lupuzor we have the benefit of superb best ever for lupus Phase 2b results, and ongoing excellent safety and tolerability in Phase 3 - both factors beating Benlysta; plus the benefit of selective mode of action, competitive price and high gross margin. All this puts the odds very firmly in Lupuzor's favour. I personally consider Lupuzor has a 95%+ probability of reaching the market.

hottingup
13/12/2017
22:14
Spawny/asat: hence I distilled my comment down to the confidence in the data for phase II.Then my caveat was, which I have not seen before, the fda agreed to do it again the same way.
l0ngterm
13/12/2017
22:10
Correct zakooska. Many appear to think that a p value represents a probability of success as opposed to what it really is; a probability that the null hypothesis of no difference between the treatment/non treatment group being correct
spawny100
13/12/2017
22:08
All that the p-value gives you is the probability that results as (or more) extreme than those you observed would arise by chance. This is entirely distinct from the probability of success in a repeat trial. That is called the power of the trial i.e. the probability of finding statistical significance under the assumption that the drug is effective.


I understand what you're saying L0ngterm but there is no way to use the p-value to make any sort of calculation of the power of the PIII trial. Maybe you are aware of that already but it should be made clear to those who are not as a few people have tried to do this.

zakooska
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