Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[colsmith] 13/12/2017 09:28

HOTS list of patients is a reminder of how many people have a life related interest in a successful result. Perhaps at this time of year in particular we could wish for success to give these folks a more hopeful new year.

[money maker1] 13/12/2017 09:21

£20 pre results and £60 to £100 after. Don't be out.

[ny boy] 13/12/2017 09:18

hottinup

Yes Mind boggling nos, could be anything, in the first instance with just over 30 trading days until end of January (yes not long at all now) I will be happy to see a grind north each week, until the big action starts, so 225/250p before news flow.

Most have just bought and sitting on them until newsflow starts, all indications to date suggest everything is going well GLA

[hottingup] 13/12/2017 08:57

Lupuzor revenues could be huge:

40,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $1.25 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $2.5 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $3.75 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $18.75 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $25 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $31.25 billion pa revenue
1,500,000 patients at $25,000 pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue

40,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.2 billion pa revenue
50,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $1.5 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $3 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $4.5 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $7.5 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $15 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $22.5 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $30 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue
1,500,000 patients at $30,000 pa = $45 billion pa revenue

"There are approximately 5 million patients across the world that suffer from lupus...from a commercial perspective we could probably target 1.5 to 2 million of those sufferers in what I call the commercial markets - North America, Europe, Far East...looking at the economics...this is a drug that would probably sell at around $25,000 to $30,000 per year per patient..." (Tim McCarthy, IMM Chairman - Stocktube, Sep 2017)

[qs99] 13/12/2017 08:16

wow, good opening

[top tips] 13/12/2017 08:13

Topped up again. Looking superb.

[ny boy] 13/12/2017 08:11

Buy those dips Sir!

There won’t be many of them

[money maker1] 13/12/2017 08:07

63% Probability of Success is the industry standard for immunosuppressant autoimmune drugs in Phase 3 but in reality its based on ones that affect the whole of the immune system often with negative safety and tolerability effects, and poor efficacy, whereas Lupuzor is the first selective modulator and thus more targeted and safe as seen in previous Phase 2b results and ongoing benign safety and tolerability profile in Phase 3, and very efficaceous, - so comparisons with the older type of autoimmune drugs is a poor comparison. Lupuzor's Probability of Success is much higher. As hottingup has said its probably closer to a 95% probability of reaching the market. Remember the competition is Benlysta and we have already beaten that on efficacy, safey, speed of action, cost and probable use in multiple indications.

[qs99] 13/12/2017 07:45

a 63% chance in the report doesn't seem a bad % approach IMO>? DYOR wonder if that will increase nearer Feb/Mar?

[ewads] 13/12/2017 07:43

Surprised top tips has not posted since yesterday. Perhaps he's not topping up anymore

[3rd eye] 13/12/2017 07:19

Finntech's 237p target for IMM is 'at today'.

They are also saying for successful Phase III trial results this would be increased 87% to 441p with Lupiznor revenue on top being 50p one-off and 386p recurring - so 877p.

Phase III results due Q1

[immy1992] 13/12/2017 06:08

this dip will be bought back today as always. Waiting to see if it goes any lower before topping up

[ashehzi] 12/12/2017 22:45

Ofcourse for every transaction, there is a buyer and a seller. What depends is whose demands are met, buyers or sellers, bears or bulls.

[hamhamham1] 12/12/2017 18:05

Regarding reported buys and sells. I believe that if you use a broker and request to buy shares and see what is in the market, then an offer out the is made apparent to you at a certain price and yoy go go for it. To you maybe it's a buy but in fact it's a sell as you met the offer price rather than placing a bid price and waiting to see if someone wants to sell at your bid price. Can anyone confirm?

[ny boy] 12/12/2017 17:56

IDP only went up as I told the bulls to buy, they were obviously taking note of what I said, the price started rising half an hour later 😁

Back here, I tried to add at 155p but didn’t get any, oh well will just stick with what I got, sellers again getting mugged like at 125p, 95p 85p etc

Tick tock only 31 trading days approx (allowing Xmas/NY hols), until end of January, approaching fast.

[davr0s] 12/12/2017 17:47

Also reported sells and buys are not always sells and buys. If it's going up on volume of whatever colour there is net buying and vice versa

[asat91] 12/12/2017 17:25

Babanki that's likely because of a large buyer on rising days absorbing all the smaller sells, and vice versa on days like today

[babanki] 12/12/2017 17:02

yesterday there were more sellers than buyers and the price went up, today there are more buyers than sellers and the price goes down

[immy1992] 12/12/2017 16:43

probably just the contra tarders hitting their T+2/3

[divinessence] 12/12/2017 16:32

I am in IDP as well big time,50% IMM and 40% IDP, 10% rest. IDP has a significant future with a great portfolio of products. DYOR and all that highly recommended.

[vatpaul] 12/12/2017 16:27

IDP
taking off

IDP

Cop a load of this 600p target from Hubridian




2017 to be well ahead of forecasts. Entering $20bn
skin brightening market.

The UK developer of life sciences, beauty, and personal care products has
reported that FYJun16 results are to be well ahead of expectations, with year
on year revenue growth of 80% to c. £9m (previous forecast £6.95m)
bolstered by the exceptional performance of Skinny Tan. Underlying PBT is
expected to be c.£1.28m (+355% y-o-y, previous forecast £0.77m).
IDP also reports a new and important channel to enhance Skinny Tan
Professional sales in the UK through a partnership with the London School of
Beauty & Make-up which trains more than 1,000 beauty specialists annually.
The Company also announces its entry into a new vertical with the approval
of a new skin brightening and anti-ageing product portfolio in South Korea by
the Korean Food & Drug Administration. The range has initially been launched
in 600 pharmacies and beauty stores by the Companyâ€;™s distributor. The RNS
refers to market research telling us that the Skin Lightening / Brightening
market is a fast-growing skin care segment and is expected to reach over US
$20bn per annum by 2020.
We have introduced 2018 forecasts looking for a further 57% growth in
revenues to £14.1m. We attribute £12.6m of this to Skinny Tan or 45%
estimated growth. However, extrapolating a H2 Jun 17 revenue performance
of c.£5.7m, we are only looking for just over 10% growth based on the current
run rate. Given the momentum, plus new channels such as Boots Ireland and
ASOS, we suggest this is undemanding. The remaining £1.5m we expect to
come from other product ranges of which IDP has/is adding many that should
fit well with its retail network and Direct to Consumer channels. These include
the Skincare range, the skin lightening range announced today, the soon to
launched Prolong device for premature ejaculation, the soon to launch
Headmaster laser helmet to combat hair loss plus associated wet
consumables, a new UK hair range and the recently acquired Stevie K and
Charles + Lee ranges.
We are forecasting underlying PBT of £2.6m equating to underlying EPS of
14.54p. This suggests a fall in FYJun18E margins against a very impressive
H2Jun17E performance, but that is to be expected given the upfront costs for
multiple product launches. That is a PE of 24.6x, more than justified by the
prospective EPS growth of 90%, an equivalent PEG multiple of 0.27x. A share
price of 600 pence would still only equate to a PEG multiple of 0.46x. Given
the product pipeline and continued stir that Skinny Tan is making, we believe
our forecasts are beatable and that the growth outlook beyond our forecast
horizon is extremely positive.



Yes, 600p target

[hjs] 12/12/2017 16:26

Spread widened by MM's and some investors panicked and sold....