Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[wanttoretireearly] 06/12/2017 16:54

Study status as at end-June 2017
o all 200 patients (100%) have passed the 3 months stage
o 184 (>90%) patients have passed 6 months
o 81 (40%) patients have passed the 9 months stage
o 46 (23%) patients have passed the full 12 months of the study

In the june update it says more than 90% of 184 patients passed 6 months so this leaves just 20 people who hadn't done 6 months by June so we really are just waiting for a handful to complete the trial.

IMM probably have the results already! LOL

[wanttoretireearly] 06/12/2017 16:51

Study status as at the end of January 2017

o over 80% of patients will have been treated for at least 3 months

o 2 patients have completed the study

o 24 patients will have been treated for 9 months

o 50 patients will have been treated for 6 months

o 90 patients will have been treated for 3 months

So adding back these numbers, 166 patients would have completed the study by October yet on 2nd Nov they announced 112 patients completed the trial........must be due some news on this soon.........

[sportbilly1976] 06/12/2017 16:28

volume not high enough for a breakout just yet...need 1mln+

[spawny100] 06/12/2017 16:27

Looks like it

[che7win] 06/12/2017 16:26

It's breaking up past 130p.

[davew28] 06/12/2017 16:24

Bet the company will have a copy. Could be useful for prospective negotiations!

[che7win] 06/12/2017 16:23

Worst case scenario is we don't get to read the report.

[adejuk] 06/12/2017 16:09

what is the worst case scenario?

[hamhamham1] 06/12/2017 15:14

Yep, it's only $4000 to get a read :)

[l0ngterm] 06/12/2017 15:14

Tried several reports with no joy

[l0ngterm] 06/12/2017 15:07

Nope tried and need to pay for it. Note it focus's on the major players rather than smaller companies.Their is a sample of two section, but it's got the content changed/figures changed.

[hamhamham1] 06/12/2017 15:01

|Did anyone get visibility of this report? hxxp://www.military-technologies.net/2017/11/20/systemic-lupus-erythematosus-drug-market-analysis-revenue-price-market-share-growth-rate-forecast-by-2022/

[hamhamham1] 06/12/2017 14:49

A takeout at £15 a share would still be 12x current value. Personally I would be very happy but understand others wouldn't.

[asat91] 06/12/2017 13:54

WJ I had no original question.

I was originally estimating possible dates of deals being made, and using the money duration to help with that estimate.

You didn't read my initial post properly

[luminoso] 06/12/2017 13:50

Lukead - my take is same as I have posted before. No big pharma worthy of that status will let IMM get to these lofty valuations. Assuming very good p3 results, I can see IMM being taken out at around £10-15. Maybe a bit more.

Divmad - I have no disagreement with sk and his spreadsheet. However I don't see IMM going all the way as I stated above.

[w1ndjammer] 06/12/2017 13:05

asat

you finally answered your own original question, with help from the wall

WJ.

[arcadian] 06/12/2017 12:43

Archer.............

That is a simple and neat way of looking at it and I for one would be delighted by a massive buyout but there are so many variables that could make things turn out differently not least being any deals struck as results unfurl and how the directors see their future. Dreams are fine but reality can be different.

[asat91] 06/12/2017 12:37

Like talking to a wall...

I know IMM will have offers in that situation.

they will likely do a deal before early 2019 because this is when they will need more money.

It's not that complicated.

A bank loan would not be the smartest way of finding money in that situation.

[w1ndjammer] 06/12/2017 12:03

asat

IMM dont need to make the drug or sell it, they will have a very valuable asset
if approval is reached. The banks will be falling over themselves to lend IMM money

WJ.

[asat91] 06/12/2017 11:41

WJ it takes time to make money from a drug. It's not like they have positive results then BOOM lupus sufferers are buying lupuzor from Immupharma.

They will need it approved first, which may take a few months with fast track. Then they need to market the drug, have it adopted and prescribed by doctors etc.

It's not that they will run out of money and cease to exist that's not what I'm saying. I agree this is not possible if they achieve positive trial results.

They have cash reserves until early 2019 (thanks longterm), so if a deal is not done by then IMM will need to find money from somewhere. That is indisputable. Where do you suggest they will find this money if not from a deal WJ?

Hgsi did a fundraiser AFTER gaining positive phase III results and their share price still rocketed so it's not necessarily a bad thing. It's something that IMM will be aware of and may take into consideration when thinking about when to strike a deal.

[top tips] 06/12/2017 11:18

This is the only share out of those i held at the start of 2017 that i am still buying.

[money maker1] 06/12/2017 11:11

IMM could have the Phase III Lupuzor results within 5 or 6 weeks, then it would be a completely different ball game.

If you take Tim McCarthy's recent reference to Lupuzor being a "multi-billion drug" as meaning lupus sales of at least $2 billion pa, then reading across from Gilhead's recent cash buyout of Kite for $11.9 billion in expectation of year 2022 sales of $1.7 billion, that implies the value of $2 billon pa Lupuzor sales for lupus would give a buyout price for IMM of at least $13.99 billion or £80 a share. The figure goes up even more if you add in other indications for Lupuzor P140, of which there are at least 10.


money maker1
5 Dec '17 - 18:43 - 6803 of 6811 6 0 Edit

If Gilead paid $11.9 billion cash in 2017 to acquire Kite's axi-cel on predicted sales of $1.7 billion by 2022, Lupuzor could be worth a lot more for lupus and the 10+ other indications it could address. Deals like this just prove the value of Lupuzor if the Phase 3 results are successful. This is not ramping just rational analysis.

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) Presentation, 14/3/2017:

"There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug."

4 min 40 sec.


Its not just me saying this. Its IMM themselves and precedents for such valuations are emerging all the time in the sector.

[w1ndjammer] 06/12/2017 11:01

asat

what a daft post 6821, if the results are good, IMM will never run out of
money no matter how long it takes to do a deal..,

WJ.

[l0ngterm] 06/12/2017 10:59

Asat: IMMs capital raising covered them out till end of 2018. However the Lanstead deal furnished IMM with an additional £600,000 so company should be funded into 2019.https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/185026

[kensingtoncourt] 06/12/2017 10:40

NY Boy you will always find punters who get mugged in the market but smart investors know IMM are on the verge of transformational news that could take them into the big league or get taken over.